Blog

  • Let’s do away with marks, grades, and this façade of examination

    Let’s do away with marks, grades, and this façade of examination

    The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has cancelled examinations for Class 10 and postponed the one for Class 12. This adds to the uncertainty that had gripped the education sector ever since the pandemic broke out. Add to that the cascading effect it will have on entrance examinations and graduate courses.

    Currently, stakeholders, namely, the higher educational institutions such as colleges and universities, state governments, high courts, students and their parents, and the University Grants Commission (UGC), are also embroiled in the exams dilemma. This has to do with whether exams are to be held or not; and if yes, then in what way? Virtually or physically?

    The Examination Train

    The manifest justification for holding examinations are to test the pupils, award them marks/grades, rank them in an order of ‘merit’, or segregate them as per mediocrity. Away from the rather narrow confines of academics, who cares for marks/grades in the world outside? Hardly an organisation/institution gives any credence to marks awarded by colleges and universities. Public sector and private sector organisations, including the banks, the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC), and what have you, conduct their own examinations/tests to recruit personnel.

    If nobody outside of the academic realm cares for marks/grades and recruiting organisations devise their own way of assessing graduates, why do we go through the examination rigmarole? 

    The only thing they look for is the minimum qualification. Generally, graduation, at the most. Also, they have their own in-house training, orientation/refresher courses or workshops. Significantly, the UPSC has prescribed just graduation as the minimum qualification for the highly-desired and coveted civil services, to recruit personnel for the foreign, administrative and police, and other allied central services.

    Even ardent followers of Mahatma Gandhi who have passionately and zealously travelled in the ‘Third Class’ all through their academic careers, are eligible to appear at the prelims or the CSAT (Civil Services Aptitude Test) that the UPSC conducts. These Gandhians as well as those who have a second class, qualify in large numbers, and are in no way inferior to the self-styled first class passengers of/on our examination trains.

    Cracks and Fissure

    There appears to be hardly any correlation between the marks/grades/class awarded by our colleges and universities and those who get through the CSAT and make it to the civil services. Are there, going by what is obtained above, any chinks in the system that is so highly-skewed in favour of rote-learning, examination-based structure of our educational set-up? Of course, there appear to be multiple cracks and fissures, to say the least.

    Just look at the countless students awarded A+ or O (outstanding) grades, lots having secured 90 to 95 percent at the Master’s level (MA/MSc/MCom) struggling, if not failing, to get through the National Eligibility Test (NET) to become eligible for an assistant professor’s job.

    The UGC, the overarching Big Brother that avidly extends its leash over the state and central universities (also the deemed ones), itself has very little faith in marks/grades awarded by its various constituents. There is ample empirical evidence to uphold the misgivings of the UGC on this count. Just look at the countless students awarded A+ or O (outstanding) grades, lots having secured 90 to 95 percent at the Master’s level (MA/MSc/MCom) struggling, if not failing, to get through the National Eligibility Test (NET) to become eligible for an assistant professor’s job.

    It is another matter that many state governments contrived their own ways to dilute the stronghold of the UGC’s NET by devising alternative routes called SET (State Eligibility Test) and SLET (State Level Eligibility Test), and have succeeded in browbeating the UGC as regards recruitment to teaching posts in state/central universities.

    The Merit Myth

    Years back, the UGC wrote to various universities that those with really high marks at the postgraduate examinations performed abysmally in the NET. Moral of the story is that in spite of the UGC lurking in the background and looking over the shoulder, its affiliated constituents have been happy in dispensing the largesse of grades/marks over-generously. Unfortunately, this is perceived as merit.

    The facade of examinations that has taken generations of students, parents, and society in general, for a ride needs a serious revisit.

    The facade of examinations that has taken generations of students, parents, and society in general, for a ride needs a serious revisit. If nobody, virtually nobody, in the real world outside of the academic realm cares for the marks/grades and classes dished out by our universities, and each recruiting organisation assiduously tests and devises its own way of assessing our graduates and postgraduates (and doctorates too), why do we go through the examination rigmarole?

    Marks to what avail?

    Why not just handover certificates, listing courses/papers taught/learnt and assignments completed. At the end of the required term just make them qualify for the degree sought by them sans the drama staged pertaining to examinations. Some educational institutions, such as the Ducere Global Business School, in Melbourne, Australia, award graduate and postgraduate degrees without exams. It has been pointed out that “assessment is articulated through solution finding, improvisation, interrogation, interaction, integration and imagination — all of which shape change”.

    The agencies interested in employing these candidates have their own manner of assessing them through written, oral and associated tests. That they have been doing, anyway, for years, even to those students who have obtained grade sheets and marks cards testifying that they have been placed in A+, or had 90 to 95 percent and have been rank holders, or have obtained a first class.

    Are we ready and willing to deliberate and debate examinations and allied issues at different levels? For a start we could wake up the UGC to shed its lethargy and set it on an examination reform and course correction path.

    This article was published earlier in www.moneycontrol.com
    Featured Image: thewire.in

     

  • Tamil Civilisation and the Lost Land of Lemuria/Kumari Kandam

    Tamil Civilisation and the Lost Land of Lemuria/Kumari Kandam

    Lemuria came to be identified as Kumari Kandam, the ancestral homeland of the Tamils, lost to the ravaging ocean in the distant past, due to what is called “Kadal Kol” in Tamil.

    The concept of the lost land of Lemuria hitherto a talking point in the west finds a new focus and interest in the study of the origins of Tamil Civilisation at the beginning of the 20th century. This was a direct result of the new consciousness of the ethnic and linguistic identity that emerged in Tamil speaking regions of South India. By the Tamil enthuse Lemuria came to be recast as the birthplace of the Tamil civilization. It came to be identified as Kumari Kandam, the ancestral homeland of the Tamils, lost to the ravaging ocean in the distant past, due to what is called “Kadal Kol” in Tamil.

    Tamil Nadu Government, during January 1981 at the Fifth International Conference of Tamil Studies held in Madurai, screened a documentary named “Kumari Kandam” both in Tamil and English. The documentary, produced with the financial support of the Tamil Nadu Government,  traced the roots of Tamil, its literature and culture, to the very beginning of time in Lemuria otherwise known as Kumari Kandam in Tamil. In this documentary, the Paleo history of the world is anchored around Tamil land and language. Thus Sclater’s[1] lost land of Lemuria was re-established in the timeless collective consciousness as a catastrophic loss of prelapsarian Tamil past. Even earlier to this, in 1879 Geological Survey of India brought out in the manual of GRGl, a discussion on the Mesozoic land bridge between Southern India and Africa. Dr.D.N. Wadia, a famed Professor of Geology, mentioned in 1990 “The evidence from which the above conclusion regarding an Indo-African land connection is drawn, is so strong and so many-sided that the differences of opinion that exist among geologists appertain to the main conclusion being accepted as one of the settled facts in the geography of this part of the world.[2]

    E.M. Forster in his famed novel ” A Passage to India “ (1984) begins his stunning stanza line “The Ganges, though flowing from the foot of Vishnu through, Siva’s hair, is not an ancient stream. Geology, looking further than religion, knows of a time when neither the river nor the Himalayas that nourished it existed, and an ocean flowed over the holy places of Hindustan. The mountains rose, their debris silted up the ocean, the gods took their seats on them and contrived the river, and the India we call immemorial came into being. But India is far older than anything in the world”.[3]

    In the ethnology chapter of the Manual, Maclean brought the findings of Ernest Haeckel about Lemuria as a primeval home of man. Maclean also draws a further conclusion from the German Biologist’s theory of the origin of various traces of mankind on the submerged Lemuria continent and reiterated that it was the primaeval home of the ancestors of India and Ceylon.

    Thus the fabled Kumari Kandam, which was based on Tamil Literary tradition, so far can receive immediate credibility through western studies. The foundation for this claim was laid by Charles D. Maclean Book “The Manual of the Administration of the Madras Presidency” published in 1835” Mr Maclean was an Officer of Indian Civil Services. In the ethnology chapter of the Manual, Maclean brought the findings of Ernest Haeckel about Lemuria as a primeval home of man. Maclean also draws a further conclusion from the German Biologist’s theory of the origin of various traces of mankind on the submerged Lemuria continent and reiterated that it was the primaeval home of the ancestors of India and Ceylon.[4] He suggested that Southern India was once the passage ground by which the ancient progenitors of northern and Mediterranean races proceeded to the parts of the globe which they now inhabit from Lemuria.[5]

    However, there is a distinct difference in perception of the Lemuria inhabitants from the point of view of Western Scholars and the Tamil enthuse. According to Western Scholars, the primitive inhabitants of Lemuria are barely human and do not represent the trace of civilization. However, the Tamil scholars hold Lemuria or Kumari Kantam as the birthplace of the Tamil Language and cradle of Tamil Civilisation. The antiquity of the Tamil language got a boost with the publication of Campbell’s Book “The competitive grammar of Dravidian Langauge”. J. Nellai swami Pillai wrote in the journal “The Light of Truth” or “Siddantha Deepika” that if you can believe in the tradition of there having been a vast continent south of Cape Comorin, all humanity and civilization flowed east and west and north, then there can be nothing strange in our regarding the Tamilians as the remnants of a pre-diluvian race. Even the existing works in Tamil speak of three separate floods which completely swamped the extreme southern shores and carried off with them all its literary treasures of ages.[6]

    Nella Swami Pillai gives a cautious conclusion that his theory stands on no serious historical or scientific evidence. The same was enthusiastically taken up fully by a well-known Tamil scholar Maraimalai Adigal.

    Though the name Lemuria came into the Tamil world only in 1903, it started gaining significance among the Tamil populous. Shri V.G.Suryanarayana Sastri started using the name Kumarinadu in his book “Tamilmoliyin varalaru. Thiru T.V.Kalyanasundaram the famous Congress Nationlist, and a noted Tamil scholar wrote emphatically that the Lemuria of “Western Scholars” like Ernst Haeckel and Scott Elliot was none other than the Kumarinadu of Tamil literature”.[7]

    The very name Kumari is suggestive of the pristine chastity and everlasting youth of the Tamil land. Later the legends linked the Devi Temple at Kanyakumari to Kumari Kantam or Kumar Nadu. The Kumari Kantam as mentioned in the old Tamil classics, has no reference to the Mesozoic continent of the Indian ocean. There is no reference to the old boundaries of Asiatic tablelands. The Tamil literature speaks of them as the original inhabitants of the great territory opened by two seas on the East and West, by Venkata hills and submerged rivers Pakruli and Kumari on the South.[8] Scholars like Somasundara Bharathi and others also invented hackers’ concept of Lemuria being the cradle of mankind, which implies that the ancient Tamil region is the birthplace of human beings and the Tamils were the first humans.

    Kumari Kantam was having a breadth of 700 kavatam south of Cape Cameron containing 49 principalities, 2 rivers called Pakruli and Kumari flowed there and it also had a hill called Kumari Koodu. The major cities in Kumari Kantam were Thenmadurai and Kapatapuram.

    The features of Kumari Kantam were referred to by Adiyarku Nallar, the commenter of Silapathikaram. Kumari Kantam was having a breadth of 700 kavatam south of Cape Cameron containing 49 principalities, 2 rivers called Pakruli and Kumari flowed there and it also had a hill called Kumari Koodu. The major cities in Kumari Kantam were Thenmadurai and Kapatapuram. This is also referred to in Tholkappia Orrai of Ilam Pooranar Nachinarkku Iniyan Perasiriyar.

    The Tamil Scholars, V.G. Suryanaryana Sastri and Abraham Pandithar lament the loss of works such as Mudunarai, Mudukurugu, etc, which had been swallowed by the ocean. These are derived from the fact that several poems in the Sangam anthology of later age refer to oceanic threat and consequent loss of lands and lives.

    The Tamil Scholar K.Anna Poorni delineates the extent of Kumari Kantam as she concludes in Tamilagham “ Today, the Tamilnadu that we inhabit consists of 12 districts within its limits. A few centuries ago. Cranach and a part of the Telugu land were part of Tamilnadu. Some thousands of years ago, the northern limit of Tamilnadu extended to the Vindhya mountain and the southern limit extended 700 Kavatam to the south of Cape Kumari which included regions such as Panainatu, mountains such as Kumari Kotu and Mani Malai, cities such as Muttur and Kapatapuram and rivers such as Pahruli. All these were seized by the ocean, so say scholars. That today’s the Indian Ocean was once upon a time a vast landmass and that that is where the man first appears has been stated by several scholars such as Ernst Haeckel and Scott Elliot in their books, History of Creation and Lost Lemuria. The landmass called Lemuria is what Tamilians call Kumarinadu. That which is remaining after this ancient landmass was seized by the ocean is the Tamil Motherland in which we reside today with pride.

     

    References

    [1] Philip Lutley Sclater was a zoologist and naturalist who studied extensively the presence of fauna and other species in different regions. He found that more than 30 species of Lemur monkeys inhabited Madagascar while they were hardly to be found in Africa but were seen in lesser number of species in India. Explaining the anomalies of the Mammal fauna of Madagascar, Sclater propounded that the Lemurs must have inhabited a lost continent in the Indian Ocean. Termed ‘Lemuria, this continent must have extended across the Indian Ocean and the Indian Peninsula to the further side of the Bay of Bengal and over the great islands of the Indian Archipelago. David Bressan, ‘A Geologists’ Dream: The lost continent of Lemuria’ in www.blogs.thescientificamerican.com

    [2] Wadia D.N. 1919, Geology of India for students, London: Macmillan – 1939, Geology of India, 2nd ed. London: Macmillan.

    [3] E.M.Forster, “A passage to India”: Harcourt Brace, New York 1984, pp 135-136.

    [4] Maclean Charles. D. “The Manual of the Administration of the Madras Presidency”, Vol.I, Asian Educational Publication, pp-33-43.

    [5] Ibid 111.

    [6] Nella Swami Pillai. J, “Ancient Tamil Civilisation in the light of truth” or Siddhanta Deepika. No. 5, pp 109-113.

    [7] T.V.Kalyanasundaram, “Indiyavum viduthalaiyum”, Charu Printing Press, Madras, P 106.

    [8] Sesha Iyengar K.G. Chera King of the Sangam Period, 1937, pp 658.

  • Calling Putin a ‘killer’ with ‘no soul’ is not exactly diplomatic finesse

    Calling Putin a ‘killer’ with ‘no soul’ is not exactly diplomatic finesse

    Category: External Article – ‘Responsible Statecraft’

    Title: Calling Putin “a killer” is not exactly diplomatic finesse

    Author: Anatol Lieven

    The Biden administration has created an completely unnecessary confrontation with Russia at a time when reasonable working relations with Moscow are extremely important for achieving two immediate and key administration goals: rejoining the nuclear agreement with Iran, and a peace settlement in Afghanistan facilitating U.S. military withdrawal from that country and an end to America’s longest war.


    Read More

  • Clausewitz or Sun Tzu: Re-Claiming the primacy of policy

    Clausewitz or Sun Tzu: Re-Claiming the primacy of policy

    World War I teaches the lesson that a limited conflict can escalate into a nightmare of millions of deaths and unspeakable suffering for which no rational explanation could be found. Military aims and strategies gained priority over meaningful political goals. Although the generals of the German Empire believed that they were relying on Clausewitz’s theory, they actually perverted it. Tactics replaced strategy, strategy replaced politics, politics replaced policy, and policy was militarized.

    The same occurred in the interval between the first and second wars in Iraq (1991 and 2003), which have seen a remarkable shift from Clausewitz to Sun Tzu in the discourse about contemporary warfare. Clausewitz enjoyed an undreamed-of renaissance in the USA after the Vietnam War and seemed to have attained the status of master thinker. On War enabled many theorists to recognise the causes of America’s traumatic defeat in Southeast Asia, as well as the conditions for gaining victory in the future. More recently, however, he has very nearly been outlawed. The reason for this change can be found in two separate developments. First of all, there has been an unleashing of war and violence in the ongoing civil wars and massacres, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, in the secessionist wars in the former Yugoslavia, in Syria and Yemen and in the persistence of inter-communal violence along the fringes of Europe’s former empires. These developments seemed to indicate a departure from interstate wars, for which Clausewitz’s theory appeared to be designed, and the advent of a new era of civil wars, non-state wars, and social anarchy. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War seemed to offer a better understanding of these kinds of war, because he lived in an era of never ending civil wars.

    The second reason for the change from Clausewitz to Sun Tzu is connected with the ‘Revolution in military affairs’ (RMA). The concepts of Strategic Information Warfare (SIW) and 4th generation warfare have made wide use of Sun Tzu’s thought to explain and illustrate their position. The ‘real father’ of ‘shock and awe’ in the Iraq war of 2003 was Sun Tzu, argued one commentator. Some pundits even claimed triumphantly that Sun Tzu had defeated Clausewitz in this war, because the US army seemed to have conducted the campaign in accordance with principles of Sun Tzu, whereas the Russian advisers of the Iraqi army had relied on Clausewitz and the Russian defence against Napoleon’s army in his Russian campaign of 1812. The triumphant attitude has long been abandoned, since it is now apparent that there is much to be done before a comprehensive approach of the Iraq War will be possible. Yet it seems fair enough to say that, if Sun Tzu’s principles are seen to have been of some importance for the conduct of the war, he must also share responsibility for the problems that have arisen afterwards.

    Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, as well as the theoreticians of Strategic Information Warfare, network centric warfare and 4th generation warfare, lack the political dimension with respect to the situation after the war. They concentrate too much on purely military success and undervalue the process of transforming military success into true victory.

    And this is exactly the problem. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, as well as the theoreticians of Strategic Information Warfare, network centric warfare and 4th generation warfare, lack the political dimension with respect to the situation after the war. They concentrate too much on purely military success and undervalue the process of transforming military success into true victory. The three core elements of Sun Tzu’s strategy could not easily be applied in our times: a general attitude to deception of the enemy runs the risk of deceiving one’s own population, which would be problematic for any democracy. An indirect strategy in general would weaken deterrence against an adversary who could act quickly and with determination. Concentration on influencing the will and mind of the enemy may merely enable him to avoid fighting at a disadvantageous time and place, and make it possible for him to choose a better opportunity as long as he is in possession of the necessary means – weapons and armed forces.

    One can win battles and even campaigns with Sun Tzu, but it is difficult to win a war by following his principles. The reason for this is that Sun Tzu was never interested in shaping the political conditions, because he lived in an era of seemingly never-ending civil wars. The only imperative for him was to survive while paying the lowest possible price and avoiding fighting, because even a successful battle against one foe might leave one weaker when the moment came to fight the next one. As always in history, if one wishes to highlight the differences to Clausewitz, the similarities between the two approaches are neglected. For example, the approach in Sun Tzu’s chapter about ‘Moving swiftly to overcome Resistance’ would be quite similar to one endorsed by Clausewitz and was practised by Napoleon.

    But the main problem is that Sun Tzu is neglecting the strategic perspective of shaping the political-social conditions after the war and their impact ‘by calculation’ on the conduct of war. As mentioned before, this was not a serious matter for Sun Tzu and his contemporaries, but it is one of the most important aspects of warfare of our own times.
    Finally, one has to take into account the fact that Sun Tzu’s strategy is presumably successful against adversaries with a very weak order of the armed forces or the related community, such as warlord-systems and dictatorships, which were the usual adversaries in his times. His book is full of cases in which relatively simple actions against the order of the adversary’s army or its community lead to disorder on the side of the adversary, to the point where these are dissolved or lose their will to fight entirely. Such an approach can obviously be successful against adversaries with weak armed forces and a tenuous social base, but they are likely to prove problematic against more firmly situated adversaries.

    Clausewitz: a new Interpretation

    Nearly all previous interpretations have drawn attention to the importance of Napoleon’s successful campaigns for Clausewitz’s thinking. In contrast, I wish to argue that not only Napoleon’s successes but also the limitations of his strategy, as revealed in Russia and in his final defeat at Waterloo, enabled Clausewitz to develop a general theory of war. Clausewitz’s main problem in his lifelong preoccupation with the analysis of war was that the same principles and strategies that were the decisive foundation of Napoleon’s initial successes proved inadequate in the special situation of the Russian campaign and eventually contributed to his final defeat at Waterloo. Although Clausewitz was an admirer of Napoleon for most of his life, in his final years he recognised the theoretical significance that arose from the different historical outcomes that followed from the application of a consistent, but nevertheless single military strategy. He finally tried desperately to find a resolution that could reconcile the extremes symbolised by Napoleon’s success at Jena and Auerstedt, the limitations of the primacy of force revealed by the Russian campaign, and Napoleon’s final defeat at Waterloo.

    Therefore there can be found four fundamental contrasts between the early and later Clausewitz that need to be emphasised, because they remain central to contemporary debates about his work:

    a.   The primacy of military force versus the primacy of politics.
    b.   Existential warfare, or rather warfare related to one’s own identity, which engaged
    Clausewitz most strongly in his early years, as against the instrumental view of war that
    prevails in his later work.
    c.   The pursuit of military success through unlimited violence embodying ‘the principle
    of destruction’, versus the primacy of limited war and the limitation of violence in war,
    which loom increasingly large in Clausewitz’s later years.
    d.   The primacy of defence as the stronger form of war, versus the promise of decisive
    results that was embodied in the seizure of offensive initiative.

    Clausewitz’s final approach is condensed in his Trinity, which comes at the end of the first chapter of book I. The Trinity, with all its problems by its own, is the real legacy of Clausewitz and the real beginning of his theory, as he emphasised himself: ‘At any rate, the (…) concept of war [the Trinity, AH-R] which we have formulated casts a first ray of light on the basic structure of theory and enables us to make an initial differentiation and identification of its major components.’
    Clausewitz describes the trinity as follows: ‘War is more than a true chameleon that slightly adapts its characteristics to the given case. As a total phenomenon its dominant tendencies always make war a paradoxical Trinity – composed of primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force; of the play of chance and probability within which the creative spirit is free to roam; and of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which makes it subject to pure reason.’

    The first chapter of On War, and the Trinity as Clausewitz’s result for theory at its end, are an attempt to summarise these quite different war experiences, and to analyse and describe a general theory of war on the basis of Napoleon’s successes, the limitations of his strategy, and his final defeat.

    Although Summers referred to Clausewitz’s concept of the Trinity in his very influential book about the war in Vietnam, he falsified Clausewitz’s idea fundamentally. 

    Clausewitz’s Trinity is quite different from so-called ‘trinitarian war’. This concept is not derived from Clausewitz himself but from the work of Harry G. Summers Jr. Although Summers referred to Clausewitz’s concept of the Trinity in his very influential book about the war in Vietnam, he falsified Clausewitz’s idea fundamentally. Clausewitz explains in his paragraph about the Trinity that the first of its three tendencies mainly concerns the people, the second mainly concerns the commander and his army, and the third mainly concerns the government. On the basis of this ‘mehr’ (mainly), we cannot conclude that ‘trinitarian war’ with its three components of people, army, and government is Clausewitz’s categorical conceptualisation of how the three underlying elements of his Trinity may be embodied.

    Since Summers put forward this conception it has been repeated frequently, most influentially by Martin van Creveld. On the contrary, it must be concluded that these three components of ‘trinitarian war’ are only examples of the use of the more fundamental Trinity for Clausewitz. These examples of its use can be applied meaningfully to some historical and political situations, as Summers demonstrated for the case of the war in Vietnam with the unbridgeable gap between the people, the army and the government of the USA. Notwithstanding the possibility of applying these examples of use, there can be no doubt that Clausewitz defined the Trinity differently and in a much broader, less contingent and more conceptual sense.

    Looking more closely at his formula, we can see that he describes war as a continuation of politics, but with other means than those that belong to politics itself.

    Clausewitz’s concept of the Trinity is explicitly differentiated from his famous formula of war, described as a continuation of policy by other means. Although Clausewitz seems at first glance to repeat his formula in the Trinity, this is here only one of three tendencies which all have to be considered if one does not want to contradict reality immediately, as Clausewitz emphasised. Looking more closely at his formula, we can see that he describes war as a continuation of politics, but with other means than those that belong to politics itself. These two parts of his statement constitute two extremes: war described either as a continuation of politics, or as something that mainly belongs to the military sphere. Clausewitz emphasises that policy uses other, non-political means. This creates an implicit tension, between war’s status as a continuation of policy, and the distinctive nature of its ‘other’ means.

    In the present discourse on the new forms of war Clausewitz stands representatively for the “old form” of war. One of the most common criticisms is that Clausewitz’s theory only applies to state-to-state wars. Antulio Echevarria, to the contrary, stated that “Clausewitz’s theory of war will remain valid as long as warlords, drug barons, international terrorists, racial or religious communities will wage war.” In order to harmonize this position with Clausewitz’s very few statements concerning state policy, his concept of politics must be stretched a long way. In this interpretation, it must mean something like the political-social constitution of a community. This interpretation is based on an often-neglected chapter in On War, in which Clausewitz deals with the warfare of the “semi barbarous Tartars, the republics of antiquity, the feudal lords and trading cities of the Middle Ages, 18th Century kings and the rulers and peoples of the 19th Century.” All these communities conducted war “in their own particular way, using different methods and pursuing different aims”. Despite this variability, Clausewitz stresses that war is also in these cases a continuation of their policy by other means.

    However, this makes it impossible to express the difference between the policy of states and the values, intentions and aims of the various communities waging war. Therefore, it would make sense to supplement the primacy of politics as a general category by the affiliation of the belligerents to a warring community. If these communities are states, one can speak of politics in the modern sense; if they are racial, religious or other communities, the value systems and goals of these communities (i.e. their “culture”) are the more important factors. Based upon this proposal, we could replace Clausewitz’s meaning of state with the notion of it being that of the intentions, aims or values of the “warring community,” thus remaining much more faithful to his understanding of what a state embodies. Otherwise, we would implicitly express a modern understanding of Clausewitz’s concept of state.

    Whereas Sun Tzu was generalising strategic principles for use against weak adversaries, which may lead to success in particular circumstances, Clausewitz developed a wide-ranging political theory of war by reflecting on the success, the limitations, and the failure of Napoleon’s way of waging war. 

    Taken into account this small change in understanding what Clausewitz was endorsing when speaking of “state policy” his trinity is the starting point for a general theory of war and violent conflict. Whereas Sun Tzu was generalising strategic principles for use against weak adversaries, which may lead to success in particular circumstances, Clausewitz developed a wide-ranging political theory of war by reflecting on the success, the limitations, and the failure of Napoleon’s way of waging war. Although he might have reflected merely a single strategy, he was able by taking into account its successes, limits, and failure to develop a general theory of war, which transcended a purely and historically limited military strategy.

    Clausewitz formulates also a crucial reminder. He stressed that, in his Russian campaign, Napoleon Bonaparte—who Clausewitz sarcastically called the “God of War”—won each individual battle of the war. At the end of this war, he was nevertheless the defeated one and had to return to Paris like a beggar, without his destroyed army. Altogether, in almost twenty years of war, Napoleon lost only three large battles—and nevertheless lost everything, since he provoked by the primacy of military success more resistance than his still very large army, the largest which the world at that time had seen, could fight. Despite his military genius, Napoleon was missing a fundamental characteristic: He was not a great statesman. Both qualities collected would have been necessary, in order to arrange from military strength a durable order of peace.

     

    Feature Image Credit: Battle of Jena – Wikimedia Commons

    Sun Tzu Image: Sun Tzu – The Art of War

    Clausewitz Image: historynewsnetwork.org

  • China’s New Coast Guard Act: Vietnam could lead Response

    China’s New Coast Guard Act: Vietnam could lead Response

    China’s new Coast Guard Act has put the ‘cat among the pigeons’ and the South China Sea claimants Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan are visibly worried. The Act has also attracted international attention; for some, it is an act of war and for others, it violates the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

    The Act came into effect last month on 01 February. In its administrative content, the Act is the culmination of at least two reorganizations of the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) that began in 2013 involving administrative and operational control of five closely associated national maritime law enforcement agencies, also referred to as the Five Dragons , that were brought under one umbrella. In 2018, CCG became part of the People’s Armed Police Force.

    Under the new Act, it is feared, the CCG would conduct operations just like the PLA Navy and would be directly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. The CCG is empowered with powerful ‘security and control measures’ and has the rights to take necessary actions to “restrain foreign military vessels and foreign vessels used for non-commercial purposes in waters under China’s jurisdiction from violating the laws or regulations of China” which is potentially in contravention to the 1982 UNCLOS.

    The Act has also attracted international attention; for some, it is an act of war and for others, it violates the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

    Under Article 20, the CCG may demolish “buildings, structures, and various fixed or floating devices” built by foreigners “in the sea areas and islands under our jurisdiction”, and Article 47 authorizes the agency to “directly use weapons if there is no time for warning or if there is a risk of serious harm after giving a warning.”

    It is the latter that prompted Japan to label the Act as “blatantly threatening” and “aimed directly at the Senkakus” raisingspeculation that the Japanese Coast Guard, which hitherto could “fire weapons directly at foreign vessels in cases of self-defence and emergency escape” may now “ fire on foreign official vessels under laws by regarding vessels aiming to land on the Senkaku Islands as committing violent crimes”.

    However, it is fair to say that some of the provisions contained in the Chinese Coast Guard Act are not extraordinary. Navies, Coast Guards and law enforcement agencies of many countries are administratively controlled by the ministries of national defence and routinely operate with the national navies albeit pursue different rules of engagements. Many maritime law enforcement agencies are also known to intercept and even sink foreign fishing vessels especially when these engage in IUU fishing. These naturally attract diplomatic protests from the affected countries including China.

    Be that as it may, the ASEAN and China signed the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) in the South China Sea in 2016 under which both sides are committed to “maintaining regional peace and stability, maximum safety at sea, promoting good neighbourliness and reducing risks during mutual unplanned encounters in air and at sea, and strengthening cooperation among navies”. This agreement is for the navies and draws upon the CUES (voluntary and non-binding) adopted by the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS).

    The new Chinese Coast Guard Act may have created an opportunity for ASEAN and China to conceptualize CUES that is tailored to the mandate of the Coast Guards i.e. law enforcement. The issue can also be on the agenda of the Heads of Asian Coast Guard Agency Meeting (HACGAM), a grouping of 22 Member States and multilateral organisations, which aims at cooperative and proactive efforts to address maritime issues confronting the region.

    Among the ASEAN member countries, Vietnam is well placed to lead the initiative for at least three reasons.  First, it is a claimant and some of the features in the South China Sea are under its control; second, it has a larger Coast Guard when compared to the capabilities of the other ASEAN claimants; and third, the Vietnamese Communist Party maintains close contacts with their counterparts in China and this could be a useful channel to facilitate a dialogue.

    However, it remains to be seen if Beijing would allow debate and discussion on the Coast Guard Act particularly when it also involves contested areas such as the South China Sea. For that deft diplomacy by Vietnam could be a good idea.

    Feature Image: www.japantimes.co.jp

  • Rethinking Monetary policy during a Crisis: Are Unconventional Policies here to Stay?

    Rethinking Monetary policy during a Crisis: Are Unconventional Policies here to Stay?

    With global crises such as the 2008 financial crisis and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary policy worldwide has increasingly ventured into uncharted territory. In the last 10 years alone, the world has seen 3 major crises that have affected financial markets extensively. Given the increasingly complex nature of economies and financial markets, central bankers have had to function under great uncertainty and shrinking policy space. Even as governments and policymakers worldwide leave no stone unturned in the fightback against crises, the traditional policy has often fallen short of its objectives. In light of growing limits of existing policy tools during a crisis, it has forced central banks to resort to unconventional measures such as negative interest rates (NIRP), quantitative easing, forward guidance and yield curve controls. Before the financial crisis of 2008, such unorthodox policies were relatively less commonplace. Today they are increasingly becoming key components of the monetary toolbox. However, much of these new policies is yet to be studied or tested in the real world. The long-term effect of such policies is still unclear. In this light, it becomes imperative to understand and analyse these unconventional policies to chart a course for monetary policy in the near to long term.

    What is Unconventional Monetary Policy?

    Under normal conditions, the most powerful weapon in a central banker’s toolkit is the policy interest rate. However, as global financial markets get more interconnected and complex, central bankers have to act under great uncertainty. As crises push traditional policy tools to their limits, central bankers have had to bank on more unconventional policies than ever before. As the governor of the Swedish central bank, Stefan Ingves puts it, “Monetary policy and the way we ‘do’ monetary policy has changed. All the time, we need to stand ready to develop new tools and make new kinds of analysis – If the world changes, we need to change with it”.

     

    Figure 1: Policy Tools Comparison

    Typically, interest rates and money supply are the two run-of-the-mill tools that central bankers resort to. Extreme versions of these policies, such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing, are termed unconventional monetary policies since they deviate from the traditional policy measures of a central bank. According to RBI’s Deepak Mohanty, “When central banks look beyond their traditional instrument of policy interest rate, the monetary policy takes an unconventional character”. Essentially, an Unconventional monetary policy is a set of measures taken by a central bank to bring an end to an exceptional economic situation. Central banks use these measures only in extraordinary situations when conventional monetary policy instruments cannot achieve the desired effect [1].

     Quantitative Easing

     Quantitative easing (QE) is a form of extreme and targeted control of the money supply in the economy. At its core, QE seeks to increase the money supply in the economy through the purchase of securities and bonds in the open market. When a central bank uses QE, it purchases large quantities of assets, such as government bonds, to lower borrowing costs, boost spending, support economic growth, and ultimately increase inflation.

    Before the 2008 financial crisis, only one major economy, Japan, had implemented a significant Quantitative Easing program in the 1990s. Today, however, almost all major economies have some sort of QE or an asset purchase program. According to a report by Fitch Ratings, global QE asset purchases are set to hit $6 trillion in 2020 alone, which is more than half the cumulative global QE total seen over 2009 to 2018 [2]. As seen in the figure below, the balance sheets of major central banks have been expanding significantly since the financial crisis.

     

    Figure 2

    Quantitative Easing has been the cornerstone of the Fed’s crisis response since 2008. In the three rounds of QE post the 2008 crisis, the Fed balance sheets increased from $870 billion in August 2007 to $4.5 trillion in early 2015. Earlier this year, the Fed purchased a record $1.4 trillion worth of US treasuries in just six weeks in response to the COVID-19 crisis, speaking volumes of the role played by the unconventional policy during a period of crisis. Also, it’s not just the advanced economies that are resorting to extensive QE programs. Nearly 13 emerging market economies, including India, announced some form of a QE program following the crisis. In India, the RBI injected durable liquidity of ₹1.1 lakh crore through the purchase of securities under open market operations (OMOs) [3].

    Zero or Negative Interest Rates

    Quantitative easing was just the beginning of the long list of tricks central bankers pulled out of their sleeves. Closely accompanying QE policies were accommodative monetary regimes of ultra-low interest rates. In 2020 alone, interest rates have been slashed across the globe on 37 separate occasions [4]. Interest rates have been falling across the globe even before the crisis, and the current pandemic has only sped up this fall.

    While many economies have reached the theoretical zero lower-bound of rates, some have even dared to venture below the surface into negative territory. As of today, 5 economies in the world follow a Negative Interest Rate Policy. While the very concept of negative rates may seem baffling, it’s even more shocking to note that over $15 trillion worth of bonds is traded at negative yields globally [5]. This means that over 30% of the world’s investment-grade securities are traded in a manner such that lenders pay borrowers to use their funds. Central banks envisage that negative policy rates would induce increased spending and stimulate the economy in two ways – first, by forcing banks to hold lesser deposits with the central bank and channelling these funds into increased lending to households and businesses. Second, a cut in the policy rate would also lead to lower rates in the overall lending market, thus encouraging borrowing and spending.

    Forward Guidance

    Forward guidance refers to official communication from a central bank on the future course of monetary policy in the economy for a specific period. It is more of a monetary policy stance than a monetary policy tool. The key idea here is to keep markets informed and eliminate any form of uncertainty, which becomes especially imperative during times of crisis.

     

    Figure 3

    Gone are the days when central bank rate cuts and other announcements of secrets that were sprung upon the markets when they least expect it. With forward guidance, central banks provide communication well in advance about the likely future course of monetary policy in the economy, and this boosts the confidence of investors, consumers and companies. The US’s Fed was one of the major central banks to adopt this policy during the COVID crisis – providing clear forward guidance in June showing that it will probably keep rates low until at least 2022. The policy has been the cornerstone of the Eurozone’s crisis response since the sovereign debt crisis. In July 2012, at the height of the crisis, ECB President Mario Draghi adopted a form of Forward Guidance, stating that the ECB will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. It is believed that these three words single-handedly turned around the eurozone crisis.

    Are Unconventional Policies Here to Stay?

    Apart from QE, NIRP and FG, there are several other unconventional policies in practice world over – Australia is experimenting with yield curve controls, the Fed is attempting to influence markets with forward guidance while Japan is considering printing helicopter money. There are so many extreme measures being adopted across the globe that policy commentators are now referring to these nations as swimming in an alphabet soup of unconventional policies (QE, NIRP, ZIRP, U-FX, NDR etc.). Post the 2008 crisis, when such policies were first being debated upon and economies were just dipping their toes in the ocean of unconventional policy, many warned of dire consequences such as hyperinflation and collapsing currencies. Luckily for central bankers, none of these predicaments came true. Most advanced economies are still struggling to combat deflation and extremely low levels of inflation despite adopting several unconventional policies. In this scenario, fears of hyperinflation seem to be unwarranted. While there have been studies documenting the potentially harmful effects of unconventional policies, economies still seem to stick with these policies. On one hand, central bankers have no better alternative tools, and second, the positive effects seem to fairly outweigh the negative externalities.

    Thus, unconventional policy tools are going to be around for the near future. As economies and global markets grow more complex, so will the policies and policy tools regulating them. Similar to how drastically monetary policy has changed within just 10 years after the financial crisis, it will keep evolving and adapting with time by developing new tools and analyses. Monetary toolbox a decade or two later will look radically different from what it is now. The important question then becomes not whether unconventional policies are here to stay, but how nations can make the most effective use of them.

    The new monetary tools, including QE and forward guidance, should become permanent parts of the monetary policy toolbox – Ben Bernanke, Ex-Fed Chair

    Need for Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy to Work in Tandem

    While central bankers have no stone unturned in the fightback against crises, the success of unconventional policies has been fairly moderate. In Japan, for example, the NIRP has failed to stimulate spending and investment in the economy. Rather, negative rates have only forced a massive outflow of funds from the country in favour of foreign assets. In the Eurozone as well, the policy has achieved no significant impact, with banks continuing to pay billions of euros as negative fees to the ECB. While QE has fared slightly better than the rest as a policy tool, the experiences of various economies with it have been mixed.

    The experiences of several economies have shown that while unconventional policies may work better than conventional ones during a crisis, there are limits to their performance as well. One of the key failures of unconventional policies (and conventional policies) has been the inability to stimulate healthy inflation in recessionary economies. Policies such as QE and NIRP, despite increasing the monetary base of economies, have failed to spur spending and investments. As we have seen in Japan, a standalone monetary policy, no matter how accommodative, is insufficient to pull economies out of downturns. In this light, it is imperative that monetary policy, conventional or unconventional, be accompanied by temporary fiscal stimulus during recessions. Public investment in infrastructure could give economies a much-needed boost in the absence of a private appetite for investments. Infrastructure is an enormous economic multiplier, and governments would do well to work in tandem with monetary regimes to provide the initial spur in economic activity. Several studies have shown that public investment during crises can generate employment and increase output. Originally theorised by British economist J.M. Keynes, the ‘Keynesian Multiplier’ of government spending could be the magic potion that makes unconventional policies go from good to great.

    How does the Keynesian Multiplier Work?

    During times of recession or economic downturn, government spending puts into action the Keynesian Multiplier. According to the Keynesian Multiplier, theorised by prominent economists such as Keynes, Kahn and Hicks, short term government spending boosts the economy by more than what is spent. Keynes was of the view that during a recession with a high level of unemployment, Governments should raise public spending to sustain effective demand and profits.

     

    Figure 4

    As seen from the figure above, an increase in government spending on large projects such as road building will lead to the creation of alternative employment. The increase in personal incomes and consequently aggregate demand in the economy will further stimulate economic activity and will create more employment than what was originally created by government spending. In effect, every unit of money spent by the government during a downturn increases GDP by a greater proportion than what was spent.

    Conclusion

    While unconventional policies are here to stay, they are a step in the dark. Economies are still experimenting and attempting to figure out the most effective use of these policies. Considering the fairly moderate performance of standalone unconventional policies, there is an established need for complementary fiscal policy to accompany monetary policy. An increase in infrastructure investment coupled with an accommodative monetary regime could help stimulate stagnant demand during a crisis. In developing economies, it can also help address structural bottlenecks subduing growth. These investments from the government, however, must be productive and efficient. Otherwise, they just end up adding on to already high levels of debt, especially during periods of crisis when governments have to borrow extensively for emergency requirements. It is also imperative that this investment is temporary and not permanent. Long-term government debt is unsustainable and can crowd out much-needed private investment.

     

    References

     

    [1] Central Charts. (2019). Definition of Unconventional Monetary Policy. Retrieved from

    https://www.centralcharts.com/en/gm/1-learn/9-economics/35-central-bank/976-definition-unconventional-monetary-policy

    [2] Fitch Ratings. (2020). Global QE Asset Purchases to Reach USD6 Trillion in 2020. Retrieved from

    https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-qe-asset-purchases-to-reach-usd6-trillion-in-2020-24-04-2020

    [3] Reserve Bank of India. (2020). Policy Environment. Retrieved from

    https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20269

    [4] Desjardins, J. (2020, March 17). The Downward Spiral in Interest Rates. Visual Capitalist.

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-the-downward-spiral-in-interest-rates/#:~:text=Global%20Rate%20Slashing,light%20of%20current%20oil%20prices.

    [5] Mullen, C. (2020, November 6). World’s Negative-Yield Debt Pile Has Just Hit a New Record. Bloomberg Quint.

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/negative-yielding-debt-hits-record-17-trillion-on-bond-rally#:~:text=The%20market%20value%20of%20the,it%20reached%20in%20August%202019.

     

    Image Credit: The Conversation

  • Analysing Denmark’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector: Lessons for India

    Analysing Denmark’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector: Lessons for India

    Globally, Europe has the highest capacity of power generated from offshore wind energy. Amongst the European countries, Denmark, the UK and Germany have been pioneers and are currently leading as the largest power producers from offshore wind energy. Danish assistance has been in high demand to help countries shorten their implementation time for offshore wind turbine projects. In 2019, India entered into a bilateral agreement with Denmark to develop an offshore wind market and related technical capabilities. According to a document published by the Danish government, their authorities have specialised technical knowledge that can help Indian authorities establish framework conditions for the rollout of offshore wind power.

    Denmark’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector  

    The Danish Government has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 70%, as compared to 1990 levels, by 2030 and having 100% of Danish energy supplied through renewable sources by 2050, apart from achieving net-zero emissions by the same time. The scarcity of proper onshore sites and the abundance of shallow waters with wind resources drove its move to offshore wind, in the early 1990s,. In Denmark, there is a strong symbiosis between energy and industrial policy because of many leading offshore wind energy companies having Danish roots such as DONG, Vestas, Bladt, Siemens Wind, etc. India must achieve such a symbiosis in its offshore wind policies so that the industry can be successful in the long term.

    Denmark’s ambitious targets coupled with their evolving policies in terms of bureaucratic procedures, environmental safety, and finance, among others, have driven the growth of the offshore wind energy sector since the 90s. This analysis looks at each of these segments.

    Consent Procedures:         The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has been a single point of access to all offshore wind energy companies when it comes to issues related to permits. Meaning, the DEA grants all permits which include permits from other appropriate government authorities such as the Danish Nature Agency, Ministry of Defence, and the Danish Maritime Authority. This is the one-stop-shop and has been adopted not only in Denmark but in many other European countries. Such a method ensures rapid and un-bureaucratic application processing and ease of doing business. This also avoids a lot of confusion.

    Grid Connectivity:             The financing of the grid connection for offshore wind farms depends on how it is established:

    • Enterprises can follow the Government’s action plan for offshore wind development wherein the DEA will invite bids to tender for pre-specified sites or
    • Enterprises can follow the ‘open-door principle’ wherein independent applications can be made for any site and upon complete assessment by the DEA, it will invite bids to tender for the site, given that the results of the assessment are positive.

    In the first case, the grid operator will finance the connection, including step-up transformers. Such socialisation of grid costs is an attractive feature for project developers in Denmark.

    However, in the second case, the responsibility falls on the developer. We may also expect costs of any necessary grid reinforcement to be borne by the developer. The three private offshore wind farms established in Denmark, following the ‘open-door principle’ – Samsø, Rønland, and Middelgrunden – have had no notable problems. These projects are, however, within 3km of the coast, which would imply that the grid connection costs were not exorbitant.

    Environmental Assessment:          In Denmark, an extensive environmental assessment takes place before the construction of an offshore wind farm. The DEA provides companies or enterprises a license to conduct preliminary studies, including environmental (Environmental Impact Assessment) and technical (ground investigation) studies, either directly after a tender (first process) or following the receipt of the first satisfactory planning documentation (second process).

    For instance, in the case of the Anholt farm, one of the largest offshore wind farms with a capacity of 400 MW, the project team performed an extensive environmental assessment that included the impact on marine animals in the area and their habitats, noise calculations, air emissions, and the potential risk to ship traffic. Using data from other wind farm projects like Denmark’s Nysted Wind Farm, and undergoing their analysis, the Anholt project team projected only minor, insignificant affects.

    Financial Incentives:          In Denmark, they support offshore wind farms through a feed-in tariff system, which is set through a competitive auction process. Power off-take in Denmark is largely managed through the DEA. There is no renewable purchase obligation in place in Denmark, but electrical power from renewable energy has priority access to the grid. In some cases, the owner may choose to sell the electrical power to utilities or other power suppliers through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). If the power price drops to zero or negative, there is an oversupply of electricity – then renewable projects do not receive any support. Hence this motivates generators to curtail output and help supply-side grid management.

    De-risking the development process:          The Danish Government undertakes geotechnical studies, wind resource assessment, and environmental surveys before a site being leased. The lease areas are then auctioned off to the lowest bidder. This hugely benefits developers as the site is effectively de-risked, leading to a lower tender price. If this were not the case, the developers would have to include risk provisions and contingency, owing to uncertainty regarding the ground conditions. Further, de-risking a site would increase willingness to plan and bid for the sites leased.

    Simply put, the Danish offshore wind energy policies developed by the DEA and the Government have evolved over the years to tackle situations as they occur. This has led to sustained growth in the sector and has succeeded in powering close to 50% of the country’s electricity demand. Besides successfully developing its sector, it has been an outstanding example to many countries in Europe such as the UK and Germany. The UK has adopted the one-stop-shop model to ease procedural difficulties. Germany has adopted the open-door procedure of establishing offshore wind farms.

    India’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector

    The offshore wind energy sector in India is in its nascent stage. Its 2015 National Offshore Wind Energy Policy shows that the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) will act as the nodal Ministry for the development of Offshore Wind Energy in India that will monitor offshore wind energy development in the country. It will also work closely with other government entities for the use of maritime space within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

    The Ministry has set a short-term target of 5.0 GW of offshore wind installations by 2022 and a long-term target of 30 GW by 2030 which, according to government documents, is expected to give the confidence to project developers in the Indian market. Over 95% of commercially exploitable wind resources are concentrated in seven states – Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu. But the land resources required for onshore wind projects are gradually becoming a major constraint. This could very well cause an increase in the market-determined tariffs of onshore wind energy in the future. Offshore wind power, however, offers a viable alternative in such a scenario. The Indian government, like Denmark, has to make policies to the best of their effort that will bring confidence to developers and de-risk the development of the sector to further encourage developers.

    Although India has a huge potential in the renewable energy sector, the developers’ issues remain unresolved. For instance, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have most of the high potential sites off their coasts to develop offshore wind energy. But a major concern for offshore wind developers would be the problem of grid integration. The two states already have a high degree of solar and wind renewables integrated into their power grid. By adding on power generated through offshore wind energy, they will face a significant hurdle with the evacuation and integration of this additional power. Without proper renewable energy storage systems, there is also the added burden to maintain an equilibrium between the supply and demand of power generated through the variable sources as otherwise, there will be a great deal of wastage and an unnecessary surge in the prices.

    Adding on to the problems faced by developers, benefits such as accelerated depreciation were recently withdrawn and as a result, investments have slowed down. Thus, project developers not only want accelerated depreciation to be reintroduced, but they also want assurance from the government that such fiscal benefits will continue for the long-term. If these fiscal benefits are reintroduced, developers will feel more optimistic about their prospects in the sector. Further, it would also encourage small developers to invest more in the sector.

    Another area that is causing considerable angst for the wind project developers in India is the delay in realising the payments due to them from the state electricity boards. These delays affect the cash flows, thereby threatening the viability of many of these projects. Such experiences will make offshore project developers cautious in venturing into making large investments into the sector.

    In terms of policies that Indian policymakers can adopt from Denmark are the one-stop-shop and an open-door procedure of establishing offshore wind farms. Having the MNRE as a single point of access would make the bidding and tendering process more efficient. This is because a developer has to coordinate with various departments such as the MNRE, the ministry of defence, the ministry of external affairs, nature and wildlife, etc before they can start producing in an offshore wind farm. It would also benefit to have an open-door procedure, but only in the long term. Initially, though, the government should identify possible sites and work on de-risking the development process to encourage more participation in the bidding process.

    Conclusion

    In line with its Paris Agreement commitments, India is working to ensure that by 2030, 40% of its power generation capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources. Currently, renewable energy makes up 36% of India’s power capacity through mainly small and large hydro, onshore wind, and solar energy. Producing power through offshore wind energy will be a welcome addition to the existing sources.

    During the RE-Invest 2020 conference, the MNRE Joint Secretary announced that the Indian government is looking into setting up structures for power purchase agreements and offshore wind auctions. Thus, to successfully implement its plans, it will require further offshore wind resource data and analysis to identify viable project sites and, revive industry demand for this market.

    Feature Image Credit: www.renewablesnow.com

    Image: Anholt Offshore Wind Farm

     

  • The Economics of Clean Energy: Transitioning to Renewables in a Post-COVID Era

    The Economics of Clean Energy: Transitioning to Renewables in a Post-COVID Era

    “the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win” – Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General

    Even without a global health pandemic, our world is still facing a crisis of staggering proportions.  In the 21st century the threat of climate change has outweighed almost all the other threats put together. Such is the pressing nature of the issue that it has even prompted re-branding of nomenclature from ‘climate change’ to ‘climate crisis’ – because that is what it is, a crisis. But as the UN secretary general António Guterres points out, “the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win”.

    In this light, it is high time a discourse on transition to clean energy systems takes centre stage. With climate change progressing at an alarming rate, the need for clean energy has only been compounded.  At a time of great disruption for the world owing to an unprecedented health crisis with severe economic and social ramifications, a transition to renewables could be the way forward. As governments around the world lead COVID-19 recovery efforts, the verdict is clear that we cannot go back to our old systems – a transition to clean energy must be on the forefront of national agendas.  While the road to recovery is long and might take years, it is also the perfect opportunity for governments to accelerate clean energy adoption by putting this transition at the heart of post-COVID-19 social and economic recovery plans.

    While COVID-19 has certainly slowed down this transition by disrupting and delaying several renewable energy expansion and installation projects, the outlook on clean energy still looks very promising. In Q1 2020, global use of renewable energy in all sectors increased by about 1.5% relative to Q1 2019, while the overall share of renewables in global electricity generation jumped to nearly 28% from 26% in Q1 2019. While this does not reflect the impact of COVID-19 on capacity expansion, as the increase in use is largely due to expansion efforts in the preceding years, it is still a positive sign.

    Solar PV has had the most remarkable fall during this period, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) falling almost 82% over the last decade. Closely following are CSP and On-shore Wind, both of which have fallen 47% and 38% respectively

    Even without factoring in the current global scenario, the rationale for transition has never been more compelling. Over the past decade, the cost of renewables has fallen to record lows (as shown in Figure 1), making it more attractive than ever before to invest in clean energy. Solar PV has had the most remarkable fall during this period, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) falling almost 82% over the last decade. Closely following are CSP and On-shore Wind, both of which have fallen 47% and 38% respectively. Batteries, which have been appraised as one of the key enabling technologies in accelerating the shift to clean energy, have also recorded significantly lower costs in the past couple of years. Battery technologies such as Lithium-ion and Vanadium-flow have long been considered the missing link in ensuring continuity of supply for Wind and Solar generated power, which often depend on the vagaries of the weather. The LCOE for Lithium-Ion batteries has fallen by 35% since 2018, owing to advancements in technology. The only increases in cost have been recorded by Geothermal and Hydropower.

    With the cost of renewables falling, fossil fuel options are looking more and more expensive. According to IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), by 2020 Solar PV and onshore wind will be less expensive than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative. In the past, one of the key reasons why fossil fuels such as oil and gas were considered attractive options was because they were highly subsidized and incentivized. The true cost of these non-renewable sources minus the subsidies may well be much higher. The conventional cost of fossil fuels also does not factor in the environmental costs associated with carbon emissions. The extraction and use of these resources are often accompanied by several negative externalities associated with environmental degradation, pollution and global warming. This failure to account for the emissions and their impact has been termed by many as one of the greatest market failures the world has seen.

    Thus, falling costs of renewables coupled with the growing pressure on fossil fuels has presented the world with a unique opportunity to accelerate the adoption of clean energy. As governments pump more money into economies as part of COVID recovery efforts, the same level of investments can now yield greater returns owing to falling costs. Globally, investments in renewable capacity and technology have been on the rise and have shown remarkable growth, especially for Solar and Wind. Investments in Solar PV (Utility) in particular have shown astounding growth, increasing over 200% since 2010 to reach $69.4 billion in 2019. Total investments across renewables stands at $253.6 billion, having grown 21% in the last decade.

    While renewable capacity and investments have been growing, so has the demand for electricity. This growth in demand has somewhat offset the impact of transition to renewables. While mainstream adoption of clean energy is still progressing in the right direction, policy makers are worried that the pace of transition is not fast enough to offset growing demands. Unless renewable technology can scale up quickly and bridge the demand-supply gap, this excess demand will inevitably have to be met by fossil fuels.

    The IRENA estimates that investments in clean energy could boost global GDP by close to $98 trillion by 2050

    Despite several roadblocks still existing for large-scale adoption of clean energy to be made feasible, governments and institutions are putting climate action at the forefront now more than ever before. Post COVID-19, as economic recovery consolidates, we cannot afford to put clean energy on the back burner. Across the world, clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, solar and wind energy are becoming increasingly mainstream. According to a UN report, global investment in renewables is set to triple in the next 10 years. If governments continue to sustain this momentum, the benefits are manifold. The IRENA estimates that investments in clean energy could boost global GDP by close to $98 trillion by 2050. Thus, the rationale is clear and more compelling than ever for a shift to clean energy. The robustness and resilience of economies to future global shocks will be determined by how quickly and effectively they transition to renewables and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

     

    References

    [1] The Climate Crisis – A Race We Can Win. (2020). United Nations.

    https://www.un.org/en/un75/climate-crisis-race-we-can-win

    [2] Renewables 2019 – Global Status Report. Ren 21. Retrieved from: https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gsr_2019_full_report_en.pdf

    [3] Global Energy Review 2020. (2020, April). IEA.

    https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/renewables

    [4] Renewable Power Generation Costs Report 2019. (2020, June). IRENA. https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019

    [5] Henze, V. (2019, March 26). Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas. Bloomberg NEF. 

    Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas | BloombergNEF (bnef.com)

    [6] Sinha, S. (2020, September 23). How renewable energy can drive a post-COVID recovery. World Economic Forum.

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/renewable-energy-drive-post-covid-recovery/

     

    Image Credit: AZoCleantech.com

  • To Become Atmanirbhar, Bharat Needs Strong R&D

    To Become Atmanirbhar, Bharat Needs Strong R&D

    India has gone full circle from Gandhi’s days of Swadeshi to Nehru’s vision of self-reliant India to New Economic Policies of indiscriminate opening of the economy to Atmanirbhar Bharat. In between lip service was paid to Swadeshi in 1998 but the government continue with the indiscriminate opening up of the economy. Even agriculture was not left untouched with the opening up of 1400 commodities after the Seattle round of negotiations in 1999.

    What is Atmanirbharta?

    What do we understand by atmanirbhar – is it at the narrow level of producing most things that we need ourselves or at the wider philosophical level? If the latter, it implies independence of thought and development of socially relevant knowledge. It could lead to an alternate vision of development and prosperity for the nation.

    In an open economy people will then buy the foreign produced cheaper goods. So, the more important aspect of atmanirbharta is the philosophical aspect.

    The idea of producing most things ourselves runs into a contradiction in a globalizing world which is premised on marketization. Most things are being produced cheaper and better somewhere else, including our cultural symbols such as gulal, diyas and ganesh statue. In an open economy people will then buy the foreign produced cheaper goods. So, the more important aspect of atmanirbharta is the philosophical aspect.

    Opening up the Economy

    In 1991, with the New Economic Policies we gave up the idea of ourselves producing most things that we need. Our global trade increased dramatically with the percentage of export plus import of goods and services in GDP rising from around 17% in 1991 to about 55.8% by 2013. In 2019 it is down to about 40%.

    With the evolution of Washington Consensus in the 1980s, based on the idea of marketization, the world started to integrate in the 1990s with all countries showing a sharp rise in trade to GDP ratio. China captured a large share of the world markets and built a huge trade surplus. Its foreign exchange reserves rose to over $3.5 trillion. This gave it enormous clout globally not only with developing countries but also with the developed countries.

    The idea of atmanirbharta or self-reliance underwent a change. It became a matter of global competition to gain market share globally. One imported more to export more. Growth was supposed to depend on this. South East Asia and China were given as examples of success of such openness and rapid improvement in the living standard of the population. China post-Mao successfully adopted such a strategy. It was a large economy so it could not even be said that India cannot do what Singapore can do.

    Globalization is all about development of technology and India has lagged behind in that.

    Lessons from China

    What are the lessons India can learn from China’s achievements in the last thirty years? Apart from the fact that it is an authoritarian state with a strong sense of nationalism, its advances in research are stupendous.

    China has invested huge sums in building a strong infrastructure and research base in Universities, Institutions and Industry. It has one of the highest investment and savings rate in the world at 44 per cent in 2019. India’s comparative figure for 2019 is around 30%. It has developed the 5G technology faster than others and is willing to provide it cheaper than its competitors. This is also the case with many other lines of production such as, electronics, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and toys. It has moved rapidly in various fields such as development of artificial intelligence and applications of internet for commerce and financial sectors.

    Globalization is all about development of technology and India has lagged behind in that.

    China has had the long term vision to develop this rapidly by investing heavily in Research and Development. After getting technology from foreign companies, it has advanced the same by mastering it. Unfortunately, India has not done so and has repeatedly imported the next level of technology.

    Need for strong R&D

    India’s investment in R&D has been minimal. The private sector has been investing little in technology development. And, the public sector has been hamstrung in technology development by lack of autonomy, bureaucratization and corruption.

    Global competitiveness requires rapid development of technology. It requires massive investment in both absorption and development of technology. Instead, India’s investment in R&D has been minimal. The private sector has been investing little in technology development. And, the public sector has been hamstrung in technology development by lack of autonomy, bureaucratization and corruption.

    Research and Development require autonomy for researchers and a long term vision. Of course resources are also required but autonomy and vision are crucial and these have been weak in India. The same Indian researchers are able to do well in foreign lands but when in India they are not able to deliver. Our research establishment are rather feudal in approach and work within rigid hierarchies so that often talent gets suppressed.

    a culture of promoting independent and critical thinking is largely missing and that reacts back on research and generation of new ideas.

    Universities are the places where autonomy is greater and a long term vision can flourish away from the immediate profit motive. But unfortunately most of our universities are also bureaucratized and do not give autonomy to the academics. The authorities largely with bureaucratized and feudal mindset see independent thinking as a threat to themselves and, therefore, put up road blocks in the path of the independent thinkers thereby frustrating them and making their functioning difficult. Often the independent minded are seen as trouble makers and a challenge to the domination of the authorities. This is true not only in social sciences but also in the case of sciences in most universities. Thus, a culture of promoting independent and critical thinking is largely missing and that reacts back on research and generation of new ideas.

    Imperatives of Strengthening R&D

    Atmanirbharta in the present day world does not imply closing the economy but having the strength to face the challenge from other nations. This has to be based on a long term vision and cannot be achieved in the short run or by ad hoc measures.

    It requires high quality education right from the school stage. Thus, the education budget has to be expanded and teaching paid much higher attention than given at present. The status of teachers has to be enhanced so that talented people come in to academia.

    The world has been globalizing for thousands of years with trade and exchange of knowledge across nations and across continents. But earlier it was a slow two way process. Colonization turned into a one way process with western knowledge and thought establishing its hegemony globally and more so in India. That killed the internal dynamism of Indian society. It reinforced feudalism in India and decimated the quest for socially relevant knowledge generation.

    There has to be a continuum in knowledge generation but with an Indian perspective. India has to have the self-confidence that it can move ahead without denying the last few hundred years. Denial is only a sign of weakness.

    As Gandhi suggested, there is need for Indian modernity. Achieving that is crucial. Can it be based on denying what has happened over the last 250 years and going to what existed prior to that? Such a gap would undermine our understanding of social developments in India. That would be a recipe for repeating our mistakes. There has to be a continuum in knowledge generation but with an Indian perspective. India has to have the self-confidence that it can move ahead without denying the last few hundred years. Denial is only a sign of weakness.

    Denial would prevent us from understanding the nature of globalization we are undergoing and therefore we would not be able to work out any correctives that are needed. It would lead to much confusion in society. For instance, we would not be able to understand why consumerism is sweeping the world, including the poor in India or why our research lacks dynamism. In brief, Atmanirbharta requires India to move with self-confidence and not be in denial.

     

  • Facing a long hot Summer

    Facing a long hot Summer

    Category: Governance, Civil-Military Relations, National Security

    Title: Facing a long hot summer

    Author: Deepak Sinha, Feb 10, 2021

    In a few short months, we are in for what is bound to be one long hot summer, global warming notwithstanding. Our enemies are at our gates and the prospect of conflict well within the realms of possibility. After all, the PLA must be keen to get on with its unfinished business, though what that might be, neither our military nor civil leadership have quite figured out!


    Read More