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  • Think tanks’ role growing: Is that a good thing?

    Think tanks’ role growing: Is that a good thing?

    Category : Education/Think tanks/Policy Research

    Title : Think tank’s role growing: Is that a good thing?

    Author : Mohan Guruswamy 20.01.2020

    The word “think tank” owes its origins to John F. Kennedy, America’s 35th President, who collected a group of top intellectuals in his White House – people like McGeorge Bundy, Robert S. McNamara, John Kenneth Galbraith, Arthur Schlesinger and Ted Sorenson, among others, to give him counsel on issues from time to time. In India, while the number of think tanks are now increasing, neither the government nor the think tanks have a culture of serious and in-depth research that would aid government’s policy making. Mohan Guruswamy analyses the think tanks and their culture in India.

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  • Tectonic shift in US’ Attitude

    Tectonic shift in US’ Attitude

    Category : International Affairs/ USA-Iran

    Title : Tectonic Shift in US attitude

    Author : Deepak Sinha 18-01-2020

    The targeted execution of a serving Iranian General and war hero, Qasem Soleimani, while on an official visit to Iraq raises serious questions of sovereignty, morality, ethical conduct and can never be justified in any civilised society. It is a blatant act of aggression in clear violation of international law and a war crime, made even more heinous because neither America nor Iran is at war with each other. Deepak Sinha comments on American motives and likely impact of this assassination.

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  • Power Shift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the edge of the 21st Century

    Power Shift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the edge of the 21st Century

    Power Shift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the edge of the 21st Century” by Alvin Toffler, Bantam Books, 1990. New York

    Alvin Toffler

    Last book of the trilogy, ‘Powershift’ published in the 1990s still continues to be an impressive intellectual handbook to understand the transformation of power in a rapidly evolving technological, economic, and social environment. Toffler argues the nature of power in any epoch is determined by knowledge, wealth and violence. By acknowledging the inevitable emergence of new age knowledge economy, Toffler sets to describe the set of changes in the power dynamics at the turn of the 21st century. A gradual shift in power succeeds with knowledge through control of information in a super symbolic economy. Post third wave of industrialization, smoke stack industries would be replaced by decentralized industries with technology and information playing critical roles. China in the past few decades has designed its economy based on knowledge and gained technological sovereignty in Asia threatening the West’s global dominance. He asserts the pattern of powershift in politics, economics and business would be integrated and the hierarchy of power would get dissolved. A mosaic of power structure would emerge, ‘demassyifying’ production that determines the future of an economy. Recent developments in 3D printing, artificial intelligence etc have changed the paradigm of manufacturing – the country investing and comprehending the impact of innovation and disruptive technologies would gain economic superiority. By providing substantial case studies and thorough qualitative analysis, the futurist predicts millennials to redefine the defence for democracy with technology, information and knowledge. There exists a conspicuous relationship between power, wealth and knowledge since the beginning of the industrial revolution. While power has traditionally been symbolised by brute military power and economic power until the end of the world wars, the post 1945 transformation of power is contained in a triangle of military power, economic power, and knowledge (science and technology) power, Knowledge has now transformed the very notion and effectiveness of power. Power structure in the 21st century, according to the writer, will be redefined by knowledge.

    Power Shift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the edge of the 21st Century

    Violence and wealth function as important tools to consolidate power – politicians, bureaucrats and business people have always used violence & wealth to move up the hierarchy. Changing levels of technology and innovation has advanced knowledge to be a source of high quality power. Toffler firmly argued that power shift era will not be about competing nations or institutions for power, rather the dynamics between violence, wealth and knowledge would be the most intimidating transformation of power. Twenty odd years later it is clear that his analysis is spot on. An important note has been made on three key factors that bolster power accumulation – military, economic and technological power. Any country claiming superiority over these three could garner superpower status. Testing this hypothesis in the case of scandanavian countries proves that despite achieving superior economic and technological capabilities these countries could never realise great power status due to lack of strong military power. Toffler highlights, however, that the nature of military power now symbolises the critical influence of knowledge power. Tofflers’ concepts, also echoed by Joseph Nye as ‘smart power’ (combination of soft and hard power), justifies the end of the Cold-War era power struggle. Political values, culture and foreign policy were fundamental for soft power, traditional marxist and liberals considered economic might to be foundational to soft power. Global power centre of gravity shifting from west to east at the turn of the 21st century is a reflection of not just the rise of Asia but also the transformation of power and hence, the powershift. China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative aims to consolidate its economic power within the western framework and then transform it. Undoubtedly, power transformation across the region and within a country is an outcome of increasing control of and access to advanced technology. A successful super symbolic economy would operate only in a country which manages to maintain monopoly of knowledge for a brief time frame until the knowledge can be commercialized to boost the economy further.Toffler has made assumptions by partially ignoring the role of domestic government structure in accumulating wealth by gaining access to control of knowledge. The inextricable link between local framework in materializing as an influential player in the global market cannot be ignored. Toffler’s following statement rings even more relevant today than ever before – “Knowledge itself … turns out to be not only the source of the highest-quality power, but also the most important ingredient of force and wealth. Put differently, knowledge has gone from being an adjunct of money power and muscle power, to being their very essence. It is, in fact, the ultimate amplifier. This is the key to the powershift that lies ahead, and it explains why the battle for control of knowledge and the means of communication is heating up all over the world.” By using the term knowledge liberally, author assumes a fluidity in defining knowledge as a tool in the era of powershift. Beyond logical thinking, knowledge is related to the ability of learning, unlearning and relearning. Any information and data can be reproduced with value as a product of passion and innovation. India at this juncture must position herself to strategically become a strong emerging power in a multi polar world. Counter balancing China’s growth in Asia, India has to permeate the knowledge economy by investing in technology and innovation. It might be fallacious to idealize China’s path, but it is critical to recognise the changing dynamics of knowledge in the current world order. An exhilarating text presenting an inspiring account of the future which we currently live in. The book remains germane as we experience knowledge of technology shaping the power structure and reiterates the dictum ‘knowledge is power’.

  • Rural Development and Gender Equality: A reality check in Tamilnadu

    Rural Development and Gender Equality: A reality check in Tamilnadu

    Category : Agriculture/Rural Development/Gender Equality

    Title : Rural development and gender equality: A reality check in Tamilnadu

    Author : Manjari Balu 06.01.2020

    Tamilnadu continues to be one of the fastest growing states in India, despite some major declines due to political instability, rampant corruption, and populist measures at the cost of development. Despite significant progress in literacy, women’s education, and some aspects of social security, there are still major shortfalls with respect to rural employment, skill development, and gender wage inequality. Tamilnadu has to develop a policy framework to achieve employability through quality secondary education for women, shifting focus from only enrolment of girls in primary education. Manjari Balu analyses this issue in Tamilnadu.


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  • India’s Illegal Immigration and Citizenship Issues: Tussle between Politics and Policy

    India’s Illegal Immigration and Citizenship Issues: Tussle between Politics and Policy

    It is indeed difficult to comprehend this Government’s precipitous push for the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA), in the manner that it has, at a time when the economy is on the edge of a precipice and it has yet to satisfactorily resolve serious issues like Kashmir that it has on its plate. True, illegal immigration is of huge concern around the world, and even more so in our case as the issue has been further complicated by the deleterious effects of Partition. However much the young today may wish away the past, we are still bound by it. Regardless of whether one subscribes to the “Two Nation Theory” or not, Pakistan emerged as the homeland for Muslims of the Sub Continent while India came to be regarded as the home for those dispossessed because of their religious affiliations from those areas. 

    One tends to forget that the Preamble to the Constitution, when first adopted, described India as a “Sovereign Democratic Republic” in which “liberty of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship” were guaranteed. Socialism and secularism were only added to our preamble as an afterthought by the Congress Government of Mrs. Gandhi in 1976 through the 42nd Amendment, obviously to gain political advantage and protect her own minority vote bank. In a sense that has now come to haunt us as the BJP proceeds to curry benefit for its Hindutva plank, as the CAA clearly attempts to do, though ostensibly it is aimed at correcting an old wrong.   

    Religious minorities in both countries were given a semblance of relief with the signing of the Nehru-Liaquat Agreement of 1950 that required both countries to protect minorities. While Indian Muslims, among others, continued to enjoy the fruits of democracy in a secular republic, the same could not be said for Pakistan, and subsequently Bangladesh, after its formation. Minorities there continued to be discriminated and persecuted against on religious grounds, forcing lakhs of Hindus and Sikhs to flee across the border. The Government of India’s subsequent refusal to grant citizenship to the fleeing Hindus and Sikhs, as had been publicly promised by both Mahatma Gandhi and the Congress Government in 1947, left them stateless and in penury and was certainly a dark chapter in our history. 

    Subsequently, after 1971, the issue was further complicated as Bangladeshi Muslims too crossed over in an attempt to improve their own economic prospects. It is also an undisputable fact that much of this flow of illegal migrants was aided by Governments then in power in Assam and Bengal that were shortsighted enough to believe that this flood of  illegal immigrants would increase their vote banks and allow them to subvert elections. It is ironical that the very parties involved in this immoral and criminal act are today at the forefront of the Anti CAA protests. While the Nellie Massacre and the Assam Student Agitation brought a halt to this farce in Assam in the early Eighties, it has allegedly continued unabated in Bengal even to this day.

    Politicians, activists and media persons who today question the extent of illegal immigration, especially from Bangladesh, would do well to study the extremely balanced and insightful “Report on Illegal Migration into Assam Submitted to The President” by Lt Gen S K Sinha (Retd), then Governor of Assam, on 8 Nov 1998. As most readers would be aware while the extent of actual illegal immigration into Bengal and other states is not available, anecdotal evidence suggests that it has been extensive and has impacted the social fabric of these States. Indeed, most of those who question attempts to curb or quantify the extent of illegal immigration are being deliberately obtuse and intent on promoting a false narrative motivated more by their bias against the current Government and their need to hide their own involvement in promoting this flood of immigrants. 

    The Assam Accord signed by the Congress under Mr. Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 required a process to be initiated for the “detection and deletion of foreigners.” In this context under the aegis of the Supreme Court action was initiated in Assam to update the National Register of Citizens (NRC) that had been prepared in 1951 by recording particulars of all the persons enumerated during that Census. This update was to include the names of those persons (or their descendants) who appear in the NRC, 1951, or in any of the Electoral Rolls up to the midnight of 24th March, 1971, or in any one of the other admissible documents issued up to then, which would prove their presence in Assam or in any part of India on or before 24th March, 1971. As per Prateek Hajela, State Coordinator of the NRC Project, “A total of 3.1 Crore persons have been found eligible for inclusion in the final NRC list, leaving out 19.,06 Lakh persons including those who did not submit their claims.” They now have the right to file an appeal before Foreigners Tribunals.

    This implies that once the process of appeals is complete, those declared as illegal immigrants, as defined by the Citizenship Act of 1955, will have to be either imprisoned or deported under the Foreigners Act, 1946 or the Passport Act, 1920. However, this has placed the Central Government and the Assam Government on the horns of a dilemma because the vast majority of those who are presently ineligible for inclusion in the NRC are Hindus. Logically speaking, deporting these people would be a gross miscarriage of justice given that they fled their country of origin due to religious persecution. In anticipation of this problem the Government amended the latter two Acts in 2015, thereby exempting Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, who had fled to  India before 31 Dec 2014 because of religious persecution, from being deported. A natural corollary to this action would have been to amend the Citizenship Act 1955 to grant citizenship to these groups in an earlier timeframe, rather than the eleven years that the Act otherwise requires. This is exactly what the Government has done with the CAA, 2019. That such an action will also help further its own political agenda is undeniable, but that is exactly how all politicians in power work.

    All of this goes against the interests of the Assamese who view the issue in purely ethnic terms. Their protests, therefore, are against inclusion of Bengalis as citizens regardless of their religious affiliations as they believe that they are being swamped numerically, culturally and linguistically. One fails to understand why the Central Government, which has the benefit of its own party in power in the State, was unable to anticipate the likely consequences of its actions. Obviously, either both the central and state leadership ignored or misunderstood the signs, but whatever be the case the Party has certainly harmed its own cause and faces an uphill battle in regaining popular support. In the context of the rest of the country however, the adverse reaction that this step has drawn is clearly political in nature, initiated by those who fear they will lose out at the hustings because of this.

    The opposition narrative that has been propagated is along two thrust lines. Firstly, it appeals to the liberal secular mindset, which already sees this government as autocratic and fascist in nature, that the CAA is discriminatory, as it leaves out Muslims from those countries, thereby eroding our secular identity, and is therefore unconstitutional. Secondly, it creates a fear psychosis among the minority Muslim population by linking it to the NRC and suggesting that it will be used by this Government to harm their community. The Police by their highhanded behaviour and excessive use of force in dealing with the protests have only reinforced this narrative.

    While it is for the Courts to decide on its constitutionality, prima facie the argument seems to lack substance because the Act is only applicable to non- citizens who are not covered by the provisions of our Constitution and in effect corrects an earlier wrong. Moreover, if legislation is to be treated as unconstitutional purely on the basis that it is discriminatory in nature, then how does one justify existing laws on the subject and is it not time for the uniform civil code to replace all our other such Acts in place? Clearly, for those who ignore these arguments, Bertrand Russell’s belief that “Men are born ignorant not stupid. Education makes them stupid,” appears to have some relevance. 

    With regard to the fears that have brought many of our Muslim brethren to take to the streets, the issues involved appear to be more complex. There can be no two views that the updating of the NRC is a legitimate exercise that every State undertakes to protect its sovereignty. No State can let its ethnic, religious or linguistic profile be overturned by illegal immigration as that will adversely impact society. However, the NRC can also not be used by any government as a tool for harassment. This is unfortunately where this Government loses out because over a period of time its actions have come to be viewed with suspicion by the public at large and specifically by our minority population. There is a huge trust deficit and people tend to be extremely suspicious of its motives. Moreover, now that the Ram Temple issue has been more or less settled, there is the fleeting suspicion that this Government now intends to use NRC to further its Hindutva agenda.  That apart, there have also been numerous occasions on which this community has faced unprovoked attacks, with little being done to assuage their feelings, especially as perpetrators have rarely been brought to justice. It is also a telling comment on their treatment that violence during these ongoing protests has primarily been restricted to states that are run by the BJP. 

    This has allowed the opposition parties to cynically peddle a blatantly false narrative and spin it in a manner that gives it enough credence to coalesce not just minority groups in their favour, but also others who have been distrustful of the way this government functions, with little regard for transparency, dialogue or rule of law. In the meantime the Modi Government has now decided to change tack, put the NRC on the backburner and proceed forward with the updating of the National Population Register (NPR) that only records the list of people in the country, instead. However, this move is also unlikely to be taken kindly since for all intents and purposes, it is a precursor to the NRC and provides relevant data that it can use. 

    The way forward in resolving this contentious situation can hardly be the one that results in further confrontation or adds to the distrust quotient. Mr. Modi would be well advised to take a step back and invite political parties and civil society for a fresh dialogue on all touchy issues. In addition they must look at including appropriate provisions to the guidelines for conduct of NPR/NRC that statutorily ensure that minorities and the poor are not harassed during the process. In any case the Assam NRC process and its final results show that despite our best efforts, deportation of illegals is a very distant possibility. It may therefore be a far better alternative to adopt a more practical and less contentious approach. One such option could be that those identified as foreigners continue to be permitted to remain and work here, without probably being given the right to vote or acquire property. However, their children born here should automatically be made citizens as per existing laws.      

    The author, a military veteran, is Senior Visiting Fellow at The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai and a Consultant at ORF, New Delhi. Views expressed are the author’s own.

     

  • PDC – 5: Artificial intelligence and disruptive technologies

    PDC – 5: Artificial intelligence and disruptive technologies

    Technology is growing exponentially signalling the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ of technological breakthroughs, such as Robotic Process Automation, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, and the Internet of Things. The advent of Fourth Industrial Revolution will disrupt almost every industry, every emerging and developed country in areas of employment and governance. The change has already started from an individual level, ranging up to societal and national level and one can only predict as to what depths these disruptive technologies are going to revolutionise the future. Come join us in our brainstorming discussion as to how people in India should adapt on a personal and professional level to embrace this uncertain, but exciting future.

    The discussion led by S K Sivakumar, enterprise architect was well received by the participants. Currently stepping into to fourth wave of industrialization it is crucial for any country to comprehend the technology aspect from various dimensions. AI technology is embedded in most of our consumer products and is shaping the future of our manufacturing & service sector. A concise explanation on usage of AI technology and the working back end technology was shared. An interesting insight on application of such technology at micro level was presented by the speaker. With such developments in the technology, it is an opportune time to evaluate the technological capabilities of India and direct policy decision to reach out potential growth in research on disruptive technology. While there is a threat of AI taking over manual jobs, it is most unlikely to happen anytime in near future. A more adaptive approach to growing technology has to be employed to facilitate research and development in the field. A follow up session on the same topic is to be organized to explore the international relation angle in the technology power race.

     

    PDC Past Event : 20 Dec 2019

     

  • US-China Trade Wars on IPR and what it means for India

    US-China Trade Wars on IPR and what it means for India

    Each incumbent in the White House since the entry of PR China into the WTO in 2001 has agonized over the protections provided by the Communist state to intellectual property rights. As China’s capacities increased and as Chinese enterprises continued to operate in an unrestrained fashion, the US Government along with other European countries raised the pressure on Beijing to change its behaviour. They refused to accept at face value Chinese protestations that these actions were compliant with WTO provisions. US responses covered the entire range of domestic law actions, bilateral pacts and approaching the WTO. A study of these actions, with the benefit of hindsight, shows it was lacking in both scope and determination. US President Donald Trump’s efforts which sparked the trade war has been the most dramatic and effective till date. Both US and China agree that their IPR differences are fundamental in nature and will be addressed in its entirety in the second phase. In this regard, the cat and mouse legal games being witnessed in the case of Huawei and its 5G ambitions  deservec scrutiny. Simultaneously the Trump Administration has doubled down on the WTO and reduced its dispute settlement body into a pale shadow of its original self. India is also a target of US actions on the IPR front, albeit of a lesser degree compared to PR China. WTO case law is instructive and there are lessons to be learned even outside of the US-China trade dispupte framework. In terms of the impact of the US-China IPR differences on India, three broad dimensions can be identified. The first one pertains to the WTO regime and other regional trade arrangements. Second, India needs to brace for further action at the WIPO and on the larger question of what US withdrawal from multilateral bodies means for the rest of the international community. Thirdly, Indian Government and companies need to try and leverage the opportunities that maybe created by China’s reforms in the IPR  fieldincluding the Pilot Free Trade Zone at Shanghai.

    Download Full Research Paper

    This paper is also published in AALCO journal.

  • Local Protests: A New Status-Quo in Political Lifestyle?

    Local Protests: A New Status-Quo in Political Lifestyle?

    Hong Kong and Chile convulse, Lebanon possibly spiralling into a civil strife, and sanctions induced discontent paralysing Iran, a pattern of global protests is increasingly evident. The global political landscape is currently marked by frequent mass protests, and this wave is geographically much broader and unfolding in countries at different stages of development. Unlike earlier protest movements that aimed at radical political change and revolutionising the existing order, the modern demands abandon this narrative of overthrowing the system instead aiming for democratisation of the established institutions. In other words, the anti-government protests cropping up in various parts are not trying to dismantle the democratic structures but to redefine its scope and depth.

    New Wave of Protests – questioning inept governance

    In contrast to the previous waves of uprising like the Pink Tide in Latin America or the Arab Spring, that was spreading in a particular region with similar agenda, the recent protests are occurring in different zones and is marked by the uniqueness of initial triggers and demands put forth by the protestors. In Lebanon, the discontent was sparked by regressive taxes proposed (mainly Whatsapp tax) but turned into massive demonstrations, transcending sects and classes, calling for a technocratic government in the backdrop of sectarian political regime, widespread corruption and mishandling of the economy. The Yellow Vest movement in France originally against the fuel tax snowballed into nationwide protests to address the socio economic inequalities, stemming from high unemployment and stagnating economy. Protests in Chile against hiked transport fares escalated to countrywide riots revealing the dissatisfaction with the pro rich growth, heavily privatised welfare system and pro market regime. On observation, these isolated protests by themselves can be a defining feature of the current wave of protests, different from the previous waves that were characterised by common contestations.

    Despite being unrelated events with independent agendas, the countries undergoing mass protests share similar trends of inequality and economic downturns. Further scrutiny beyond the seemingly small initial triggers reveal an evident pattern of economic anger and insecurity in these nations. Experts have suggested that Hong Kong’s pro democracy movement is also fuelled by wide income inequality (highest among developed nations), especially in the last 45 years since its handover to the Chinese. The Latin American region, witnessing the most number of countries breaking into sustained protests, is the world’s most unequal zone. In addition to inequality, sustained unrest in states like Colombia, Catalonia to Iraq and Egypt, the protests are driven by slowing economic growth, mounting public debt and austerity measures. Even in populist and authoritarian regimes, citizens are demanding an end to corruption and restoration of democratic rule of law. For instance, long serving, extremely popular, leftist leader Evo Morales was forced to resign in Bolivia after protests erupted accusing him of undermining democracy to extent his rule. There are increasing clashes against repressive democracy in Russia, and revolts against autocrats in Slovenia and Czech Republic.

    Leaderless or smart mobilization?

    Interestingly, a majority of the modern protests are leaderless, led by students and youth. In Hong Kong, the protests are gaining momentum through the active involvement of the students while in Chile the unrest for systematic change was ignited after school students launched a campaign to end the 4 percent subway fare increase. Niall Ferguson noted that this demographic trend of the young leading the demonstrations is a repeat of the 1960s, which like the present had an excess of educated youth over the number of available jobs. Another similarity amongst the protests is the urban-centric mass unrest. According to migration theorists, uncontrolled urbanisation resulting in rural to urban movements is a major cause for the ongoing demonstrations. Pushed into informal settlements in cities, often ignored by authorities and without basic social coverage, the urban area becomes a ground for discontent. For instance, in Haiti the protests began due to gasoline and food scarcity. Therefore, the socio-economic marginalisation of the urban poor is a significant yet overlooked factor that drives people to the streets. This is also compounded by a lack of faith in the government. More than the poor state policies adopted and prevalent corruption, in some protesting nations, there is deep distrust among the citizens. Hong Kongers believe that their government does not have legitimate powers over Beijing, and in countries like Lebanon, Chile or Ecuador, reversal of the initial triggers did not stop the dissenters from demanding a new government.

    The youth bulge and the shrinking economic opportunities only partly explains the global protests. The reach and accessibility of social media and free messaging apps have exploded in the past decade. In addition to acting as a medium to organise and sustain mass protests, these channels are also used to express political frustrations. Unlike before when media had a monopoly over mass reach, individuals and groups have the capacity to mobilise and garner support over specific issues. While the protests seem unconnected, it is possible to see a copycat element in the way protests are carried out. The coverage of news and faster reach makes it possible for protestors to adopt methods of action that were successful elsewhere. It is also harder for states to contain and repress dissenting voices. Thus, the spread of communicative technology and social platforms offer a conducive environment for protests. 

    Social Media enables activism

    The ability of electronic media to break down physical barriers and bring more events to global audiences might be increasing the visibility of protests, which would have otherwise remained local. Data from GEDLT Project, which has been tracking protests around the world from the past 40 years, reveals that the frequency of protests has not significantly increased. However, the intensity and the length of protests have improved. Despite a spike in these political activities wherein citizens are actively mobilising to pursue their demands, there has been a decline in the success rate of protests. A recent study highlights the staggering decline in success rate of protests from 70 percent in 1990s to 30 percent in 2010. Some highlight the “smart” methods adopted by regimes to prevent and suppress clashes like reinforcing loyalty of the elite, infiltrating and dividing the opposition, etc. For instance, in Lebanon, the initially united protests has created anti protest groups that supports the Hezbollah. Governments are also adopting a strategy of blaming foreigners and outsiders to reinforce support from the public. For instance, China is building a narrative of US backed forces disrupting Hong Kong to get an advantage in the ongoing trade war, which has strengthened after US signed a Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy law. Iran’s authorities are also blaming outsiders, especially the US, for the violence that ensued after state raising gasoline prices by 50 percent.

    Overall, there is an influx in political activism. Global unrests are now spreading and have significant implications for countries everywhere. With electronic media and its potential for mobilisation, it is now easier to bring issues to national discourse. However, while the willingness and ability of mass political activism to recur and cause disruptions have increased manyfold, its success rates have decreased. It may be said that the political frustrations and the current protests will not bring a major transformation in the political structures but rather it is a new status quo in the nature of political lifestyles.  

    Renuka Paul is a Research Analyst with TPF. She holds a masters in Public Policy.

    Image: Aerial night shot of Beirut Downtown, Lebanon during protest against Government, Lebanese revolution – Phot by Ramzi – Licensed from www.stock.adobe.com

  • PDC 4 : Keezhadi archaeological findings project new light on Indian History

    PDC 4 : Keezhadi archaeological findings project new light on Indian History

    Carbon dating of unearthed artefacts found at Keezhadi point to the Sangam Age being 300 years earlier than previously believed, challenging current understanding of history. Structural remains found in the Vaigai plains show the handy skills of the people and high standards of living in the Sangam era. Also spurring the language debate, engravings of Tamil-Brahmi existing at an earlier age point to older origins of the Tamil language. These evidences point to the importance of expanding archaeological research in order to understand the history of Peninsular India. Join us as we dig deeper into history!

    Dr S Vasanthi, Former director of the archaeological department, Government of Tamil Nadu led the discussion on common artefacts and items found in Keezhadi excavation. The recent discovery in keezhadi is similar to the other excavation that was undertaken in different parts of Tamil Nadu. The discussion commenced by highlighting the significance of scientific approach in studying history and civilization. Research methodology employed in studying any civilization has to be sound and unbiased as possible. The artefacts and items explain the life style and civilization but the governance structure, political situation is largely obtained from the literature and manuscripts. An enlightening session about other archaeological excavation in India at different time periods revealing similar cultural aspects of civilization encouraged participants to advance their understanding of the subject.

    PDC Past Event :   07 Dec 2019

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  • ‘Pawar Play’ in Maharashtra

    ‘Pawar Play’ in Maharashtra

    Henry Luis Mencken (1880-1956), well known American journalist and essayist, once wrote “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” As we sit back and watch as the Impeachment drama plays out in the United States, one cannot help but marvel at Mr. Mencken prescience. The election of Donald Trump does seem to suggest that the American public has indeed found its inner soul, but as to whether it has really perfected democracy in the process remains questionable.

                Especially, more so, if it was to compare itself to what passes for democracy here. In short order they would then realize the vast distance they have yet to cover to reach true perfection. As a matter of fact, they would do well to follow the ongoing “Pawar Play” in Maharashtra, which incidentally is only the latest manifestation of what perfection in a democracy looks like, and has all the ingredients of a true Bollywood potboiler in the making. That is the only way in which realization would dawn on them that Mencken’s deductions were slightly awry. Invariably in perfect democracies it is not the political leaders who are morons, but the people who voted them to power. That is the fundamental reality we have been confronting ever since Independence, regardless of the political ideologies of the people and parties we vote into power.

                Whatever the host of legal eagles fighting the case in our Supreme Court may say to justify their arguments, and regardless of the conclusions the Hon’ble Court may arrive at, the simple truth of the matter is that for all sides concerned, Maharashtra is too important to lose. To start with the inability to form the government in Maharashtra would not just be a simple loss of face, but utter humiliation for the BJP, and more importantly, for its mentors from Nagpur, located in the heart of the State. If they cannot control their own fiefdom, what control will they exercise tomorrow over the rest of the country, more so given that elections are due in states like Bihar and Jharkhand in the coming months?

                Similarly for the Shiv Sena after having openly cast aside the cloak of morality and gambled everything, including the kitchen sink, in its blatant attempt to go one up and grab the Chief Ministership for Balasaheb’s scion, a loss would spell utter disaster and lead to questions of survivability of the dynasty. For the NCP, and especially the Pawars, being on the winning side is the only hope for redemption for past transgressions. As events have played out, it is now obvious that Pawar the younger was carried away by the brashness of youth and the fact that leadership of the Party would remain just a mirage due to circumstances of birth as long as Pawar the elder had any say in the matter. Finally, for the Congress that continues to be on the ventilator this was an unexpected bonus, a fleeting opportunity to start again.

         While each of these stakeholders has its own particular motivations for their actions, however, the most important aspect  incentive for all in this battle royal for the stewardship of the State is the simple fact that not only is Maharashtra a large state, governing which is undoubtedly prestigious, but also an extremely rich one. It doesn’t exactly require a leap of faith to suggest that whosoever controls the money controls the votes. After all, is that not the very reason that controversy dogs the issue of electoral bonds that were introduced not too long back?

                Leave aside mundane issues of malfeasance, personal greed, overarching ambition and rank opportunism, what is indeed truly astounding to see is the utter lack of constitutional propriety and ethical conduct on the part of those charged with its very protection. For them to let petty loyalties and servility take precedence over self- respect and principled conduct is not just a reflection on how unworthy they are to hold such positions of eminence, but also a shameful blot on our social mores that encourages such people to claw their way up despite lacking an iota of integrity or moral fibre. One cannot but feel embarrassment for the President, a former advocate, who unquestioningly accepts the recommendations of a Prime Minister without the requisite cabinet approval, justified by the use of a most inappropriate rule to cover the lapse. That such a rule can be invoked at the dead of night to swear- in a government at dawn, in the futile hope that it would provide stability, after weeks of confusion, is indeed laughable, if it were not so tragic.

                The Supreme Court’s directions to the newly sworn-in Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis, to prove his majority on the floor of the House within two days, set the cat among the pigeons as it left only limited scope for horse trading. It forced him to resign prior to the House being called into session as by that time it was abundantly clear that Mr. Ajit Pawar was in no position to provide the necessary support of the NCP legislators required to gain a majority, as he had promised. It is only now becoming increasingly clear that the ‘Ajit Pawar move’ was in all likelihood, a move conceived by his uncle and leader of the NCP, Mr. Sharad Pawar, to kill two birds with one stone; firstly lure the BJP into withdrawing President’s Rule in the State, which it may otherwise not have done in a hurry, and to force the Congress to reduce its demands in exchange for joining the anti BJP Coalition, Maharashtra Vikas Agadi, under the leadership of Mr. Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister.

                Events in Maharashtra only accentuate the utter lack of morality on display on the part of all concerned. If we were to look at the winners and losers that have emerged after this power play, clearly the BJP finds itself stranded by the wayside and has much to introspect, but it is not the only loser, The Shiv Sena may have won itself a reprieve and fulfilled Thackeray’s ambition of being Chief Minister, it has come at a cost, as it appears to have caused grevious damage to its ideological foundations. There is always the possibility that Uddhav may have realized that with the Ayodhya Temple issue having been resolved to a large extent, hard Hindutva is unlikely to be a crowd puller in the coming days and an ideological shift was necessary if the Shiv Sena is to flourish. The Congress continues to be seen as disorganized, lacking leadership, confused and opportunistic, a perception that is unlikely to change until the Gandhi’s are leached out of its organizational structure. Only the NCP appears to have emerged as clear winners, especially Mr. Sharad Pawar, as he will undoubtedly wield the remote control on this coalition government. Off course, all of these shenanigans only reinforce the fact that it has been the people of Maharashtra, who have lost out the most, and were, in Mencken’s words, “moronic” enough to vote these ingrates into power.

    The writer is a military veteran and consultant with the Observer Research Foundation and a Senior Visiting Fellow with The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai. The views expressed are the author’s own.