The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest disruptive global health threat in more than a century. The economic, political, and social life of people in all countries has been adversely affected as never before. This new strain of the coronavirus has posed significant challenges to people, researchers, medical fraternity, and governments across the world. It poses serious health risk to the elderly and has stressed national health systems significantly. The development of a vaccine, despite global efforts, is not likely to be available any time before mid 2021. The Peninsula Foundation, through two doctors Ms Keerthika Gnanasegaran and Ms Vishnupriya Rajasegaran have put together complete information on the Coronavirus in simple and easy to understand details. Ms Avanti A Srinivasan, a high school student describes her experience and opinion of the crisis.
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Coronavirus: Fighting The Invisible Enemy
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Vocal about Local: Empowering local Governance Structures to deal with the Pandemic
Urban centres in times of the Pandemic
India is a rapidly urbanizing state. The 2011 census estimates that 31% of Indians live in urban areas. It counts 4041 statutory towns, 3892 census towns and 474 urban agglomerations as urban areas. These numbers however are quite outdated in 2020 and also there is considerable consensus among experts that there is an underestimation of urban spaces owing to the outdated definition of ‘urban’ in India. For example, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, based on satellite data, reports that at least 54% of India’s population lived in cities or large urban areas in 2015 and the World bank using the Agglomeration Index finds out that 55.3% of India’s population lived in urban-like spaces in 2010. Regardless, the fact remains that these urban spaces should be governed democratically with the spirit of the 74th amendment. The COVID-19 situation further reasserts the importance of such governments and their role in Indian society.
Cities and urban spaces have emerged as hotspots of the Coronavirus. It is from the cities that the coronavirus subsequently spread to other rural areas.
Cities and urban spaces have emerged as hotspots of the Coronavirus. It is from the cities that the coronavirus subsequently spread to other rural areas. Throughout history, pandemics have originated and perpetuated from cities, therefore it is not irrational to predict another pandemic perpetuated from cities in today’s close-knit global village. This warrants a greater need to safeguard the cities which are the essential links that connect nation states to the globalized world. The first step in this direction would be to empower urban governments for efficient crisis management and prevention of communicable diseases by assuring basic public goods.
Subsidiarity
The principle of subsidiarity advises that the Central authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks which cannot be performed at a more local level. The principle therefore asserts the sovereignty of the citizen in a democracy and places her at the center of decision making.
In line with the principle, everything that can be done better locally, including providing basic services like safe drinking water and ensuring public goods like clean air, should be done by the local governments. The rationale being that, one, it increases efficiency and promotes self-reliance; two, it provides legitimacy to democracy and three, it creates awareness among people and develops responsible citizens. And another obvious reason is that it is most effective in understanding the local problems and in ensuring a pragmatic feedback loop.
All these reasons become much more clearer in times of crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic when local assessment and rapid service delivery become difficult. Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) neither have properly delineated functions to perform nor do they have the finances to do so. The 12th schedule of the Indian Constitution lists a group of 18 subjects on which the local governments can act upon, but only if the States ‘may’ wish to assign those functions by virtue of another State legislation. Even when legislated, States usually encroach into the domain of the purview of the local governments.
The Veerappa Moily commission’s sixth report dealing with local governance sums it up perfectly.
“Confusion, unnecessary duplication, inefficiency, wastage of funds, poor outputs and outcomes are the result of this organisational jungle. The local organisations which should be the ones most directly and fully concerned are at best treated as a small part of the implementation, occasionally consulted but, in most cases, by-passed and ignored”.Furthermore, the establishment of parastatals has reduced the functions of the local governments. The Parastatals perform specific functions which are supposed to be performed by ULBs and are accountable only to the State government thereby circumventing the ULBs. In addition, the Union government also takes a share of the implementation space with centrally sponsored schemes thereby making proper delineation of powers impossible for ULBs.
The Veerappa Moily commission’s sixth report dealing with local governance sums it up perfectly.
“Confusion, unnecessary duplication, inefficiency, wastage of funds, poor outputs and outcomes are the result of this organisational jungle. The local organisations which should be the ones most directly and fully concerned are at best treated as a small part of the implementation, occasionally consulted but, in most cases, by-passed and ignored”.Now, when experts ask for decentralized governance to efficiently deal with the pandemic and to decentralize decision-making regarding lockdown measures, all they get is a dysfunctional organisation jungle where local governments do not have the wherewithal to function as self-governing institutions.
Disaster Risk Reduction
Strong local governments are of great importance, especially during disasters and pandemics. Experts suggest that a sound bottom-up governance approach has been more successful in the wake of disaster response. For instance, in a UNDP study on disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh, they point out the importance of local governance.
The report suggests that local governments are crucial because they ‘play the greatest role in sustaining ongoing, participatory disaster risk reduction at local community level’. The report goes on to summarize that the key lesson learnt from the study is that decentralization of authority and decision making is essential to effectively deal with the disaster.
“Decentralization of authority to local governments is vital to ensure local ownership of disaster risk reduction and the local implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. Local authorities should have the responsibility of implementing disaster risk reduction, and be accountable to the community they represent in doing so”.Much has been written about why governments closer to the people are more effective but what is equally important is that when decision making is decentralized, citizen satisfaction and responsibility is increased (for example, see this study done in Indonesia). This becomes important in times of the Covid-19 pandemic where individual responsibility is necessary to stop the spread of the virus. Also with lives and livelihoods pitted against each other, citizen satisfaction is important to make hard decisions which might deter personal freedom in the short term.
Considering all this, the National Disaster Management Act, 2005, which was used by the Union government to impose lockdown measures, seems to lack the involvement of local governments in disaster risk reduction. V N Alok in his article for the Financial Express, deals with this complaint. He argues that there is only a passing reference to local government in the Act and even when referenced, functions are mostly subsidiary to the District authority headed by the Collector/Magistrate which is controlled by the State government. On the other hand, there is no ambiguity in assigning functions to the State and Union governments.
India is often referred to as the ‘flailing state’, which is strong and sound in the centre, with no reliability at the grass-roots. Local governments can provide the missing link that could hinge the State to the people.
This again echoes Veerappa Moily Commission’s concern that there is no proper delineation of powers for the local governments. Article 243 N and 243 ZF mandated that all laws inconsistent with parts IX and X of the Indian constitution shall be changed accordingly within a year of passing the 73rd and 74th Amendments. But most States have still not identified and changed all statutes conforming to the idea that local governments are self-governing institutions. This shows India’s hesitation to look at local governments as self-governing institutions capable of dealing with problems.
India is often referred to as the ‘flailing state’, which is strong and sound in the centre, with no reliability at the grass-roots. Local governments can provide the missing link that could hinge the State to the people.
Its importance is felt during the pandemic more so than ever, especially in cities where the institution is weak compared to rural India. An integrated approach, with involvement from the local government, would prove to be more effective than centralized decision making. But before relying on ULBs and locally elected leaders, they have to be empowered-politically, functionally and financially. The first step towards such empowerment could be by including local governments in conversations regarding governance and decision making; to be more vocal about local governments.
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Daulet Beg Oldi: Operating from the World’s Highest Airfield
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Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) is a historic campsite in Ladakh on an ancient trade route connecting Ladakh to the Tarim Basin. It is named after Sultan Said Khan (Daulet Beg), who died here on his return journey after the invasion of Ladakh and Kashmir. DBO is strategically significant as it is close to the Siachen Glacier, the Karakoram Pass, and China’s Xinjiang-Karakoram highway. The Chip Chap river flows just to the south of DBO from east to west. It has an airstrip at an altitude of 5064 meters (16,614 ft), the world’s highest airstrip. India activated DBO as a military base and Advanced Landing Ground (ALG) following the border dispute with the PRC in the late 1950s. The IAF activated DBO airfield in 1962 and it became a crucial ALG since then. DBO continued to be in use till 1966. The airfield was damaged following an earthquake in 1966, which put a stop to its further use. The IAF maintains many of the forward posts and villages in the himalayan regions through airdrops using a string of ALGs. Following increased belligerence from China, DBO was reactivated in 2008. The completion of the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road added immense logistical strength to the Indian military in the region. Since 2013, China has intensified its probing incursions in this region. The recent clash in the Galwan valley is a high point of increasing tensions along the borders.
Operations from the DBO have been a huge challenge, given its high altitude, mountainous terrain, and loose soil conditions. Group Captain A G Bewoor VM (Retd), an air force veteran with immense transport flying experience, describes the challenges overcome by the IAF in activating the DBO through first landings spaced out by 46 years.
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China’s support to Syria: In Conflict and Redevelopment
China is looking to ramp up relations with Syria both as part of its strategic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but also to take advantage of the multi-billion dollar reconstruction effort that is expected to materialise following the gradual winding down of the war.
Syria is an ancient civilisation and also an important part of the ancient silk route, with cities such as Palmyra, Aleppo and Damascus playing an important role in trade and travel between the East and the West. While the discovery of a maritime route between Europe and Asia has to some extent diminished its importance in this regard, Syria is still strategically important. China is looking to ramp up relations with Syria both as part of its strategic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but also to take advantage of the multi-billion dollar reconstruction effort that is expected to materialise following the gradual winding down of the war.
China’s non-interference policy is an integral aspect of its involvement and role in the Middle East. During the course of the Syrian war, China has consistently supported the Bashar Al Assad government on the diplomatic front – through the exercise of the veto power against the resolutions introduced in the United Nations Security Council either condemning the Syrian government, calling for ceasefire or for imposing sanctions on suspected war criminals. While negotiating the renewal of border crossings for aid, China agreed on the need for humanitarian assistance but emphasised on state sovereignty. China’s policy of non-interference has served it well in strengthening bilateral relations and advancing its interests.
One of the reasons for the diplomatic support extended by China to the Syrian government is also the involvement of the Uighur fighters in the Syrian conflict which has greatly bothered China. While it has never got directly involved militarily in the Syrian conflict there are unconfirmed media reports which suggested that China was sharing military intelligence with the Syrian government and also sent its military advisors to Syria to help it in its fight against the rebels. In this sense, it saw Syria as a key player in its fight against religious extremism thereby preventing its export to its own volatile Xinjiang province.
With the Syrian conflict slowly winding down and Bashar Al Assad’s hold on Syria greatly strengthened more than at any other time since the beginning of the civil war, China is ramping up its diplomatic efforts in Syria using trade as an important policy tool to ramp up the relations between the two great civilisations.
Based on Chinese government’s invitation Syria has participated in the second BRI summit held in Beijing in April 2019. Previously in 2018, China held a Trade Fair on Syrian reconstruction projects which was attended by nearly one thousand Chinese companies and which saw investment proposals of nearly USD two billion. The collapse of most of the industry in Syria due to the war has also resulted in a significant increase of cost-effective Chinese imports into Syria ranging from toys to car parts and industrial machinery and equipment.
China is also leveraging its economic strength fully by using aid as a foreign policy tool. In 2019, Xinhua reported on the that an economic cooperation agreement was signed between Syria’s Planning and International Cooperation Commission (PICC) and the Chinese embassy in Damascus. As part of this agreement, a donation will be set aside to fund a series of humanitarian projects as agreed upon by both sides.
The collapse of most of the industry in Syria due to the war has also resulted in a significant increase of cost-effective Chinese imports into Syria ranging from toys to car parts and industrial machinery and equipment.
China is expected to be a key player in the international reconstruction and development effort that is expected to take place in Syria due to its strong bilateral ties with not only Syria but also its alignment with Russian and Iranian position on Syria , these two players being the major supporters of Bashar Al Assad’s government in the civil war. While Russia and Iran are surely expected to carve out a large part of the reconstruction contracts between themselves, their capacity to make the huge investments in these projects, estimated to be worth anywhere between USD 200 million to USD 1 trillion is doubtful. This creates the ripe opportunity for China to enter the reconstruction business effort either by themselves or, as is more likely, in partnership with Russian and Iranian governments or businesses.
Beyond the business opportunities provided by the potential reconstruction of Syria, China is also strategically interested in Syria. China was always interested in securing access to the Ports of Tartus and Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. Such an access is expected to complement Beijing’s interests in the Greek port Piraeus (COSCO shipping, the Chinese state-owned shipping and logistics services supplier company in the Port authority) and the Israeli port of Haifa, in securing a trade route to Europe. In alignment with these strategic interests, Chinese companies’ area also exploring the possibility of upgrading the deep seaport of Tripoli, Lebanon to allow it to accommodate larger vessels and also the possibility of building a railroad that would connect Beirut and Tripoli in Lebanon to Homs and Aleppo in Syria.
Beyond the business opportunities provided by the potential reconstruction of Syria, China is also strategically interested in Syria. China was always interested in securing access to the Ports of Tartus and Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
Chinese investments into and trade ties with Syria however, risk the attraction of US sanctions on Syria. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou, Chief Financial Officer of Huawei, , in Canada, based on a request by the United States highlights the extent of these risks. “The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act”, also known as “The Caesar Act”, a United States legislation that sanctions the Syrian government, including Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, for war crimes against the Syrian population, parts of which are now incorporated in the “National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020” greatly tightened the sanctions environment against the Syrian government and a number of its industries potentially impacting the Chinese investments and trade ties. While China has called for an end to sanctions stating they were “inhuman,” they have been wary of being targeted by sanctions and further straining their relations with the US. However, it is unlikely that the sanctions would have a significant effect on China given the size of China’s economy and its ability to circumvent sanctions while dealing with Iran and North Korea. China, as part of its ‘mask diplomacy,’ is increasingly providing aid to the Syrian government in their efforts against Covid-19. This serves the dual purpose of strengthening China-Syria relations and strengthening China’s narrative of Covid-19.
To conclude, China has been a staunch supporter of the incumbent Syrian government of Bashar Al Assad during the almost decade long Syrian civil war and is set to reap the benefits from the post-war Syrian reconstruction effort in conjunction with the Russians and the Iranians to advance its interests.
Image: Middle East Institute
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Sanitation & Hygiene Concerns in Government Schools in Tamilnadu: Need for Digital Intervention
Ensuring that there are proper health and hygiene facilities and awareness for girls at the school level is an extremely important building block for quality education.
Introduction
Achieving quality education at school level is a dynamic process that needs to revise the elements according to the needs of the social setting. One such element is a policy that promises an education system to promote gender equality from the grassroots. The problem needs an intervention with an enhanced infrastructure for maintaining sanitation and hygiene for girl students and a holistic understanding of gender issues through awareness that leads to organic social change. The state, undoubtedly, is responsible to ensure quality education and resolve the gaps in education using innovative methods. Tamil Nadu is one of the best performing states as far as literacy rate is concerned. However, realistic social barriers still exist that need intervention and customized strategy. According to the 2011 census, Tamil Nadu stood third after Kerala and Maharashtra. The male literacy rate was around 87% and the female literacy rate was around 73%.
This article attempts to decode the most important factors,sanitation and hygiene, in ensuring ‘quality’ of education for girls. This particular aspect encompasses three main Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of the UN; Quality Education, Gender Equality and Water & Sanitation. The last goal of providing access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) particularly in rural areas is the means to achieve the former two goals of gender equality and quality education.
Need to prioritize WASH for quality education
Tamil Nadu employs more than 50% of its women in remunerative labour. Girls tend to drop out of schools either because of customary practices or because of the demand for labour. In some cases The lack of awareness and knowledge on menstruation and menstrual practices are also major factors contributing to this drop out. Despite several initiatives and attempts at establishing proper sanitation and hygiene practices particularly in schools, most of these initiatives fail to gain attention across social barriers, especially those initiatives surrounding menstruation and their importance. This exposes the limitation of community-based initiatives and their impact. Specifically Water, Sanitation and Hygiene practices, commonly known as WASH. Tamil Nadu is estimated to have 6.1 million adolescent girls and yet around 7837 schools have either dysfunctional toilets or no toilet facilities at all. The implication of such poor infrastructure is an adverse impact on learning and results in drop out from schools in most of the cases. Ensuring that there are proper health and hygiene facilities and awareness for girls at the school level is an extremely important building block for quality education.
The lack of awareness and knowledge on menstruation and menstrual practices are also major factors contributing to this drop out. Despite several initiatives and attempts at establishing proper sanitation and hygiene practices particularly in schools, most of these initiatives fail to gain attention across social barriers, especially those initiatives surrounding menstruation and their importance.
Access to toilets and sanitation facilities is a privilege that only a few have access to particularly in rural areas where people practice open defecation owing to the lack of toilets. Tamil Nadu has performed brilliantly in this respect since the implementation of Swachh Bharat Abhiyan Scheme in 2014. Over 48 lakh toilets were built in rural areas since 2014, with Tamil Nadu becoming an open-defecation free state.
The Government of India recognized the role played by sanitation and hygiene in ensuring that quality education is delivered. In 2014, the MHRD had launched the ‘Swachh Bharat Swachh Vidyalay’ initiative. The scheme was implemented to ensure that there were separate functional toilets for girls and boys. In addition to ensuring separate toilets, the scheme also focuses on maintaining a certain level of hygiene and sanitation. While it is not enough that this initiative has been implemented in schools across the country, it is also important that parents, teachers and children are aware of the same. Proper hygiene and sanitation does not end in school, it is imperative that this awareness is spread in local communities and villages as well. As a part of the scheme, government schools in rural and urban areas are eligible to nominate themselves for the ‘Swachh Vidyalay Puraskar’. This acts as an incentive for schools across the country to improve their WASH standards.
Capitalizing the Digital Wave
With Tamil Nadu’s rural internet penetration through mobile phones at 41.98%, there is a significant potential that can be tapped in the state’s ICT usage. While creating awareness is one side of the coin, spreading awareness is another. This is where the potential of ICT can be harnessed, in spreading awareness. The government of Tamil Nadu has made available textbooks, lessons and other educational material on their ‘DIKSHA’ portal which is essentially a YouTube channel. On this channel, students from different classes can access their study material. This could be one of the possible means through which awareness can be created across districts and villages on the importance of sanitation and hygiene.
Some of the government schools in Tamil Nadu have demonstrated an exceptional WASH record, thereby proving the fact that if the administration is focused the results can be excellent as shown by Thiruvallur and Vellore districts. Schools in these districts have maintained excellent sanitation and hygiene standards and have been recipients of the SVP. The initiatives taken by these schools to spread awareness on the importance of sanitation and hygiene have largely been behaviour oriented. By involving parents and the larger community, these initiatives have been successful and effective as well. Community-based initiatives are to create and spread awareness on various social welfare schemes. Apart from creating awareness, such initiatives also tend to bring communities together. The implementation of the SBSV scheme has facilitated the use of ICT as well. While the integration of ICT in the process is a welcome change, there is a lack of clarity on what exactly it is being used for.
Importance of awareness on Menstrual Hygiene
It has been established that several initiatives were taken in the past and are being taken to improve ‘WASH’ practices in the country, particularly in schools to improve enrollment rates as well as reduce dropout rates. Educational institutions in the country, particularly schools have an inherent responsibility to educate adolescent girls on menstruation, talk about the changes it brings about in a girl’s body. A 2014 report by Dasra foundation posits that close to 23 million girls drop out of school annually due to a lack of awareness. 79% of girls and women in Tamil Nadu were not aware of menstrual hygiene and practices that are followed at the time of menstruation. Lack of awareness of menstrual hygiene and the practices that are required to be followed at the time of menstruation makes a girl/woman extremely susceptible to infections. This is largely attributed to the stigma that is created around menstruation and the notion that it is an ‘impure’ phenomena. A study conducted in 2015, in Padappai, points out that only 43.33% of girls were aware of menstruation when they experienced it the first time. The source of information in most of these cases was the mother while the teachers and schools had a very small part to play in the process. Therefore, a layer of stigma surrounding the issue is apparent that is far from being institutionalized. Institutionalizing the issue would lead to it being discussed in schools, which in turn would normalize it and break the stigma around it. There are a plethora of possibilities that ICT brings about. Schools could tap into this potential and make use of it to communicate effectively to their students. In rural India particularly, simply creating awareness and breaking the stigma around menstruation will not suffice. Often, this stigma is reinforced by women in the family. In order to move beyond this, schools must ensure that lessons on menstruation are conducted for both girls and boys alike. Not only does this induce awareness among boys but it also makes them more sensitive to the issue.
A 2014 report by Dasra foundation posits that close to 23 million girls drop out of school annually due to a lack of awareness. 79% of girls and women in Tamil Nadu were not aware of menstrual hygiene and practices that are followed at the time of menstruation.
Awareness through Digital Platform
Tried and tested methods of spreading awareness in a community has generated results but is not enough. Improving sanitation and hygiene standards in learning institutions requires the participation of all the stakeholders involved in the process. While this may be an initial attempt at de-stigmatizing the issue, undoing centuries of discrimination and oppression requires a systemic approach. Tamil Nadu government’s ‘DIKSHA’ portal is a good place to start. In addition to developing online resources, there must also be some sort of portal that mandates uploading information related to the sanitation and hygiene measures that are being taken in schools. Additionally, it is important to use digital interventions to create awareness and reinforce the message in a timely manner. While infrastructure creation is a part of the goal, it is equally important to establish the need for it and educate people. This is where the digital intervention comes into the picture. One of the goals in Tamil Nadu’s Vision 2023 Project is to encourage PPP as a mechanism for infrastructure creation. This could be one of the potential means through which awareness is spread by introducing digital interventions in rural areas. It could either include installing a TV in Gram Panchayat offices which could display campaigns on the importance of sanitation and hygiene/menstrual hygiene, etc. With respect to creating awareness on menstrual hygiene which is a systemic issue because of the stigma attached to it – the solution needs to be systemic as well. For starters, creating conversation around menstruation is extremely important. Something called the ‘culture of silence’ exists in Kenya particularly in rural areas where girls refrain from speaking about menstruation and puberty. Identifying practices like this is a start when it comes to de-stigmatizing menstruation. While removing GST on sanitary napkins is one way to make the product more accessible, it is important to make people realize why there is a need for using one in the first place and the consequences of not using it. This brings us to the question of whether it is enough for the state to build infrastructure alone and if its responsibility ends there as opposed to also creating awareness on how to go about using the said infrastructure as well as educating people on its importance.
Ensuring Effective Policies
Some of the government schools in Tamil Nadu have demonstrated an exceptional WASH record, thereby proving the fact that if the administration is focused the results can be excellent as shown by Thiruvallur and Vellore districts. Schools in these districts have maintained excellent sanitation and hygiene standards and have been recipients of the SVP.
Initiatives like the SBA, SBSV and SVP are focussed around creating infrastructure and incentivizing schools to implement hygiene practices. Sanitation happens to be a state subject, and each state faces its own challenges with respect to addressing the problem. For instance in a state like Tamil Nadu where there is decent infrastructure, the drop-out rate for girls is still on the higher side. A lack of awareness on menstrual hygiene has also contributed to the drop-out rates in the state. Evidence suggests that not all government schools in Tamil Nadu have toilets and the ones that have toilets, do not maintain them well. Perhaps now the state must implement initiatives that focus on capacity building and behavioural change in order to ensure that the results are more impactful and also long-lasting. The initiatives that the state implements in the future must focus on intrinsically motivating people to implement sanitation and hygiene practices in their lives. Apart from that, the state must also conduct follow-up workshops that engage with people and communities and teach them how to use toilets, etc. In addition, whenever a new initiative/scheme is launched, state governments must also make sure that there are bodies/committees in place in every district that happens to be a beneficiary of the scheme. As communication becomes easier and more efficient in the digital age, initiatives that are implemented in the future must focus on knowledge creation.
References
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6286883/
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India-China Trade in ancient times: Southern Silk Route
To follow the Silk Road is to follow a ghost. It flows through the heart of Asia, but it has officially vanished leaving behind the pattern of its restlessness: counterfeit borders, unmapped peoples. The road forks and wanders wherever you are. It is not a single way, but many: a web of choices.
Colin Thubron, Shadow of the Silk Road.
Introduction
India and China, two Asian giants, share a lot of similarities in terms of history and culture. Both countries represent age old civilizations and unique history. Cultural and economic ties between the two countries date back to about 2000 years ago. The Silk Route, which is an ancient network of trade routes, formally established by the Han Dynasty, served as a connection between the two countries. It was also through this route that Buddhism spread to China and East Asia from India. The routes were more than just trade routes; it was the carrier of ideas, innovations, inventions, discoveries, myths and many more.
The earliest mention of China can be found in the Indian text “Arthashastra” which was written by Kautilya in the fourth century BC. Kautilya made a remark about Cinapattasca Cinabhumjia (Cinapatta is a product of China)[1]. Whereas, the earliest mention of India in Chinese records dates between 130 and 125 BC. Zhang Qian, a Chinese envoy to Central Asia, referred to India as Shendu, in his report about India to Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty.
This article will look into the ancient trade route that existed between South Western China and India’s North East region via Myanmar and the future of the trade route.
Ancient trade links between India and China
Shiji, which is the first Chinese dynastic history, compiled between 104 and 87 BCE talks about the existence of a trading route between India and South West China. According to Chinese records, Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty, tried to establish a trade route from Changan, the Chinese capital to North East India through Yunnan and adjoining areas. However, the rulers of Yunnan were against the idea of establishing a direct trade between India and China and Emperor Wu failed to establish the trade route. Even though the trade route failed to take off, the trade in Cinapatta and Chinese square bamboo continued without any hindrance.
Political Geography of the Southern Silk Route
The Southern Silk route (SSR), one of the least studied overland route, is a trade route which is about 2000 km long and linked East and North East India with Yunnan Province of China via Myanmar. This is a relatively unknown, ancient trade route that is considered a part of the larger web of Silk Roads. This route existed before the Central Asian Silk route became popular. This trade route between Eastern India and China came to be known during the early 3rd century BCE, and it became popular by the 2nd century BCE. By 7th century AD various other branches of the SSR emerged to create web of trading routes.
Traders carried silk from Yunnan through Myanmar, across India and joined the main silk route in Afghanistan. In addition, silk was also transported from South West China through the Shan states and North Myanmar into East India and then down to the Coromandel Coast.
The Qing dynasty which ruled China from 1644-1912, recorded the cross cultural exchanges that took place across SSR. This route contributed to cultural exchanges between China and the West. It also promoted interactions among different nationalities.
Indian sources have failed to provide abundant evidence about the SSR and the interaction that took place across this route but there is enough evidence that indicates that trade and migration did take place in the Eastern India-Upper Myanmar-Yunnan region. For example, modern scholars believed that the Tai Ahoms were originally from Yunnan but they migrated to North East India and founded a small kingdom around 13th century, which grew to become the powerful Ahom Kingdom of Assam.
The areas through which the SSR passed were inhabited by various ethnic groups whose political, social and economic organizations were primitive and backward. As a result, the safety of the route was often questioned. Archeological evidences have been found along the Southern banks of Brahmaputra up to Myanmar border, which shows that trade did exist along this route.
The main items that were exported from China via this route included Silk, Sichuan cloth, Bamboo walking sticks, ironware and other handicrafts items. Sichuan, a South Western province was the main source of silk. Glass beads, jewels, emeralds etc were some of the items that were imported to China.
Another important trade route is the South West Silk route or the Sikkim Silk route, which connected Yunnan, and India through Tibet. A section of the route from Lhasa crossing Chumbi Valley, Nathu La Pass connected to the Tamralipta Port (present day Tamluk in West Bengal). From the Tamralipta port, this trade route took to the sea to traverse to Sri Lanka, Bali, Java and other parts of the Far East. Another section of the route crossed Myanmar and entered India through Kamrup (Assam) and connected the ports of Bengal and present day Bangladesh.
Over time, the Southern Silk Route lost its prominence and it was in 1885 that it re- emerged as a strategic link as the British tried to control some parts of the route in order to access and gain control over Southern China.
The strategic importance of the route increased during World War II. In 1945, Ledo Road or Stilwell Road was constructed from Ledo, Assam to Kunming, Yunnan to supply aid and troops to China for the war with Japan. Ledo Road is the shortest land route between North East India and South West China. However, after the war the road was left unused and in 2010, BBC reported that much of the Ledo road has been swallowed up by jungle.
The Assam-Myanmar-Yunnan road is very difficult to traverse not only in the present times but also during the ancient times. However, despite the hard conditions, it is through this route that a golden triangle of drug trafficking, movement of terrorist and smuggling functions today.
Future Potential: Reviving the Southern Silk Route Economy
North-East India and the Yunnan province share many similarities. Both are landlocked as well as under developed regions. Both are home to a large number of ethnic groups and have witnessed secessionist movement from time to time. Apart from this, Yunnan and North East India are geographically isolated from their political capitals.
Yunnan and North East India, home to rich varieties of subtropical fruits with high nutritional values and medicinal plants, can cooperate and transform the hills of North East India and South West China into plantations, factories, laboratories to produce processed food products and lifesaving drugs that can find a huge market in developing and developed countries.
In a bid to revive the Southern Silk route, Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar, signed the Kunming Initiative, a sub-regional organization, in 1999. This initiative was replaced by the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) in 2015. The BCIM-EC was announced by China as a part of its Belt-Road Initiative, which has been boycotted by India since the beginning. In 2019, the BCIM-EC was dropped from the list of 35 projects that are to be undertaken under BRI, indicating that China has disreagrded the project. However, in the same year India has sought to keep the BCIM-EC project alive.
If the BCIM-EC project does take place, it will reduce the travel time, cut transportation cost, open up markets, provide way for joint exploration and development of natural resources and create production bases along the way. Before the BCIM-EC takes off, it is important to develop the roadways infrastructure of India’s North East region.
Even though the BCIM-EC promises to elevate the economic conditions of the backward North-East region of India, it has not gained sufficient steam as both China and India have different apprehensions. China sees India’s reluctance to support BRI as the barrier for any progress in the project. Given the current stand-off in Ladakh, India’s apprehensions about China seeking to exploit the insurgent groups operating in the region gains significance. Either way realizing the Southern Silk Road as a viable project in the form of BCIM-Economic Corridor looks distant now.
[1]Haraprasad Ray, “Southern Silk Route: A Perspective,” in The Southern Silk Route : Historical Links and Contemporary Convergences (Routledge, 2019).
References
Ray, Haraprasad. “Southern Silk Route: A Perspective.” Essay. In The Southern Silk Route: Historical Links and Contemporary Convergences. Routledge, 2019.
“Continental and Maritime Silk Routes: Prospects of India- China Co-operations.” In Proceedings of the 1st ORF-ROII Symposium. Kunming, 2015.
Mukherjee, Rila. “Routes into the Present.” Essay. In Narratives, Routes and Intersections in Pre-Modern Asia, 37–40. Routledge, 2017.
UNESCO. Accessed June 20, 2020. https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/content/did-you-know-great-silk-roads.
“The Silk Route.” Accessed June 21, 2020. http://www.sikkimsilkroute.com/about-silk-route/.
Ray, Haraprasad. Introduction. In North East India’s Place in India-China Relations and Its Future Role in India’s Economy, n.d.
Chowdhury, Debasish Roy. “’Southern Silk Road’ Linking China and India Seen as Key to Boosting Ties.” South China Morning Post, October 23, 2013.
“China Wants to Revive ‘Southern Silk Road’ with India.” The Times of India, June 9, 2013.
Image: Stilwel Road from Ledo in Northeast India to Kunming in Yunnan province, China
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India’s Agriculture: The Failure of the Success
It was around the mid-1960s when the Paddock brothers, Paul and William, the ‘prophets of doom’, predicted that in another decade, recurring famines and an acute shortage of food grains would push India towards disaster. Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich in his 1968 best selling book The Population Bomb warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s in countries like India due to over population.
Their prophecies were based on a rising shortage of food because of droughts, which forced India to import 10 million tonnes of grain in 1965-66 and a similar amount a year before. Little did they know that thanks to quick adoption of a new technology by Indian farmers, the country would more than double its annual wheat production from 11.28 million tonnes in 1962-63 to more than twice that within ten years to 24.99 million tonnes. It was 71.26 million tonnes in 2007. Similarly rice production also grew spectacularly from 34.48 million tonnes to almost 90 million tonnes in 2007.
Total food grains production in India reached an all-time high of 251.12 million tonnes (MT) in FY15. Rice and wheat production in the country stood at 102.54 MT and 90.78 MT, respectively. India is among the 15 leading exporters of agricultural products in the world. The value of which was Rs.1.31 lakh crores in FY15.
India is among the 15 leading exporters of agricultural products in the world. The value of which was Rs.1.31 lakh crores in FY15.
Despite its falling share of GDP, agriculture plays a vital role in India’s economy. Over 58 per cent of the rural households depend on agriculture as their principal means of livelihood. Census 2011 says there are 118.9 million cultivators across the country or 24.6 per cent of the total workforce of over 481 million. In addition there are 144 million persons employed as agricultural laborers. If we add the number of cultivators and agricultural laborers, it would be around 263 million or 22 percent of the population. As per estimates by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the share of agriculture and allied sectors (including agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery) was 16.1 per cent of the Gross Value Added (GVA) during 2014–15 at 2011–12 prices. This about sums up what ails our Agriculture- its contribution to the GDP is fast dwindling, now about 13.7 per cent, and it still sustains almost 60 per cent of the population.
If we add the number of cultivators and agricultural laborers, it would be around 263 million or 22 percent of the population. As per estimates by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the share of agriculture and allied sectors (including agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery) was 16.1 per cent of the Gross Value Added (GVA) during 2014–15 at 2011–12 prices.
With 157.35 million hectares, India holds the world’s second largest agricultural land area. India has about 20 agro-climatic regions, and all 15 major climates in the world exist here. Consequently it is a large producer of a wide variety of foods. India is the world’s largest producer of spices, pulses, milk, tea, cashew and jute; and the second largest producer of wheat, rice, fruits and vegetables, sugarcane, cotton and oilseeds. Further, India is 2nd in global production of fruits and vegetables, and is the largest producer of mango and banana. It also has the highest productivity of grapes in the world. Agricultural export constitutes 10 per cent of the country’s exports and is the fourth-largest exported principal commodity.
According to the Agriculture Census, only 58.1 million hectares of land was actually irrigated in India. Of this 38 percent was from surface water and 62 per cent was from groundwater. India has the world’s largest groundwater well equipped irrigation system.There is a flipside to this great Indian agriculture story.The Indian subcontinent boasts nearly half the world’s hungry people. Half of all children under five years of age in South Asia are malnourished, which is more than even sub-Saharan Africa.
More than 65 per cent of the farmland consists of marginal and small farms less than one hectare in size. Moreover, because of population growth, the average farm size has been decreasing. The average size of operational holdings has almost halved since 1970 to 1.05 ha. Approximately 92 million households or 490 million people are dependent on marginal or small farm holdings as per the 2001 census. This translates into 60 per cent of rural population or 42 per cent of total population.
Approximately 92 million households or 490 million people are dependent on marginal or small farm holdings as per the 2001 census.
About 70 per cent of India lives in rural areas and all-weather roads do not connect about 40 per cent of rural habitations. Lack of proper transport facility and inadequate post harvesting methods, food processing and transportation of foodstuffs has meant an annual wastage of Rs. 50,000 crores, out of an out of about Rs.370, 000 crores.
There is a pronounced bias in the government’s procurement policy, with Punjab, Haryana, coastal AP and western UP accounting for the bulk (83.51 per cent) of the procurement. The food subsidy bill has increased from Rs. 24500 crores in 1990-91 to Rs. 1.75 lakh crores in 2001-02 to Rs. 2.31 lakh crores in 2016. Instead of being the buyer of last resort FCI has become the preferred buyer for the farmers. The government policy has resulted in mountains of food-grains coinciding with starvation deaths. A few regions of concentrated rural prosperity.
The total subsidy provided to agricultural consumers by way of fertilizers and free power has quadrupled from Rs. 73000 crores in 1992-93, to Rs. 3.04 lakh crores now. While the subsidy was launched to reach the lower rung farmers, it has mostly benefited the well-off farmers. Free power has also meant a huge pressure on depleting groundwater resources.
These huge subsidies come at a cost. Thus, public investment in agriculture, in real terms, had witnessed a steady decline from the Sixth Five-Year Plan onwards. With the exception of the Tenth Plan, public investment has consistently declined in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) from Rs.64, 012 crores during the Sixth Plan (1980-85) to Rs 52,107 crores during the Seventh Plan (1985-90), Rs 45,565 crores during the Eighth Plan (1992-97) and about Rs 42,226 crores during Ninth Plan (1997-2002).With the exception of the Tenth Plan, public investment has consistently declined in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) from Rs.64, 012 crores during the Sixth Plan (1980-85) to Rs 52,107 crores during the Seventh Plan (1985-90), Rs 45,565 crores during the Eighth Plan (1992-97) and about Rs 42,226 crores during Ninth Plan (1997-2002).
Share of agriculture in total Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at 93-94 prices has halved from 15.44 per cent to 7.0 per cent in 2000-01. In 2001-02 almost half of the amount allocated to irrigation was actually spent on power generation. While it makes more economic sense to focus on minor irrigation schemes, major and medium irrigation projects have accounted for more than three fourth of the planned funds
By 2050, India’s population is expected to reach 1.7 billion, which will then be equivalent to nearly that of China and the US combined. A fundamental question then is can India feed 1.7 billion people properly? In the four decades starting 1965-66, wheat production in Punjab and Haryana has risen nine-fold, while rice production increased by more than 30 times. These two states and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh now not only produce enough to feed the country but to leave a significant surplus for export.Since food production is no longer the issue, putting economic power into the hands of the vast rural poor becomes the issue. The first focus should be on separating them from their smallholdings by offering more gainful vocations.
Farm outputs in India in recent years have been setting new records. It has gone up from 208 MT in 2005-06 to an estimated 251 MT in 2014-15. Even accounting for population growth during this period, the country would need probably around 225 to 230 MT to feed its people. There is one huge paradox implicit in this. Record food production is depressing prices. No wonder farmers with marketable surpluses are restive.
India is producing enough food to feed its people, now and in the foreseeable future. Since food production is no longer the issue, putting economic power into the hands of the vast rural poor becomes the issue. The first focus should be on separating them from their smallholdings by offering more gainful vocations. With the level of skills prevailing, only the construction sector can immediately absorb the tens of millions that will be released. Government must step up its expenditures for infrastructure and habitations to create a demand for labor. The land released can be consolidated into larger holdings by easy credit to facilitate accumulation of smaller holdings to create more productive farms.
Finally the entire government machinery geared to controlling food prices to satisfy the urban population should be dismantled. If a farmer has to buy a motorcycle or even a tractor he pays globally comparative prices, why should he make food available to the modern and industrial sector at the worlds lowest prices?
Why should Bharat have to feed India at its cost?Image: Kanyakumari farm lands during onset of monsoon.
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Covid 19: India uses Crisis to bring-in Economic Reforms as Package
India’s four-phase lockdown of 68 days to deal with the Covid-19 threat has, while slowing the spread of the virus, come at huge economic costs. The lockdown for a vast majority of the people is, undoubtedly, the harshest in the world.
The coronavirus triggered lockdown and its ensuing series of extensions have disrupted more than 60 percent of economic activities in the country, posing a huge threat to the economy. The crisis was underway when the global economy was slowing down and India, in particular, had to deal with a poor health care system and an economy already under distress. Unemployment rate is estimated to be around 27 percent post lockdown and has resulted in nearly 12.2 crore people losing their jobs. In addition, a severe slump in consumer demand is expected to persist for the next few quarters. Almost 85 percent of India’s workforce is engaged in the informal sector – quite naturally the government is under stress to implement effective policy reforms to counter the downturn.
In response to the contraction in the economy, the Prime Minister has announced a second round of economic package that stands at roughly around 10 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. The USA and Japan have announced relief packages of 13 and 21 percent of their GDP respectively. In comparison, India has seemingly provided a substantial Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus- highlighting the concept of ‘self-reliance’ as a way forward to deal with the economy post the pandemic. The stimulus package includes previous steps taken by RBI such as moratorium on loan repayments, interest rate cut, etc. In the five tranches of the stimulus package, the Finance Minister has announced a slew of measures to address the structural issues of Indian economy. However, it is estimated that the immediate fiscal boost will be only around 1 percent of GDP and most of the fiscal and monetary policies will attract long term capital with medium run stabilization of the economy.
Micro Medium and Small Scale Enterprises
Focusing on reviving the small businesses and micro enterprises, under this tranche Rs 3 lakh crore is allocated for collateral free loans for business enterprises. This package is estimated to be around Rs 5.94 lakh crore including RBI measures to improve liquidity in the economy. However, the direct fiscal cost for the government is around Rs 16,500 crore. For the stressed MSME units, the central government is planning to facilitate Rs 20,000 crore as subordinate debt and Rs 50,000 crore through equity infusion. Non Banking Finance Companies (NBFC) that serve the MSMEs will receive Rs 30,000 crore under investment guarantee scheme. While the six broad measures look attractive, the MSME sector in India is dominated by micro enterprises that are largely unregistered. However, these measures will not immediately benefit the micro business units with necessary working capital. Most of the enterprises and small business units are cash strapped and are on the verge of disappearing. Ninety-nine percent of the sector comprises micro enterprises – businesses with less than 10 working employees.
Most of the enterprises and small business units are cash strapped and are on the verge of disappearing. Ninety-nine percent of the sector comprises micro enterprises – businesses with less than 10 working employees.
While the government has taken supply side measures to incentivize businesses, two important challenges remain intact. One, the large number of unregistered micro businesses might not benefit from the credit line offered by the government. Two, if the demand recovers slowly, it is likely the business sector especially small enterprises will suffer despite credit being infused. It is important to note that the supply and demand side has to be revived at the same rate to ensure sustainability of the MSME business.
Migrant labourers and Farmers:
Second stimulus of the Finance minister’s announcement was focused on migrant labourers and farmers. Close to 150 million internal migrants are present in India according to the latest census report. Rs 3500 crores is to be spent on migrant labourers not covered under the Public Distribution System (PDS). Rs 5000 crore is set aside to facilitate easy access to street vendors. Funds worth Rs 6000 crore is planned for enhancing employment among adivasis and tribal groups. For the next two months, around 8 crore migrant labourers not covered under PDS will be provided 5kgs of grains per person and 1 kg chana per family in a month. ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ is a welcome move given the leakages present in the PDS, but the national coverage of this scheme is expected only by March 2021. Additionally, in the National Food Security Act, 2013 , based on the 2011 census data, it is estimated that around 100 million people do not fall under this safety net accounting for growth in population over the past decade. The initiative to record and track the data on unregistered labourers is important for fiscal stimulus response to a COVID hit economy. National portability of ration cards is important but the execution is time consuming and does not address the problem of people being excluded from the ration card system. Universalizing PDS and decentralizing decisions to achieve food security with an efficient supply chain should be an immediate intervention. States with higher migrant labourers and people with less access to PDS should be targeted to universalise food distribution. Acknowledging the shortcomings of the PDS and food supply channel, an emergency plan to ensure food supply to people below poverty line for the next six months needs to be prioritised.
‘One Nation One Ration Card’ is a welcome move given the leakages present in the PDS, but the national coverage of this scheme is expected only by March 2021.
Agriculture and Allied activities:
Under the third tranche of the economic stimulus package, the government has taken bold measures to invest in agriculture and allied activities. Total package announced was worth Rs 1.63 lakh crores – relatively less compared to earlier stimulus packages. The main focus was on enhancing agriculture infrastructure, financing farm gate produce and improving post harvest supply. A series of other funds were allocated for disease control for animal husbandry, promotion of herbal products and fisheries. Rs 10,000 crore was unveiled to support 2 lakh Micro Food Enterprises on a cluster based approach.
Lack of cold storage and supply chain was identified by the government to create an Agriculture Infrastructure Fund of Rs 1 lakh crore. A big push for agriculture reforms was spelled out by the decision to deregulate six commodities including cereals, pulses, oil and vegetables by amending the Essential Commodity Act, 1955.
Many experts believe the reforms undertaken were long due for India to enhance productivity of the agriculture sector. But deregulation of essential products during the time of lockdown with poor food supply chains might not be beneficial especially for marginal farmers. Almost 92 percent of the Food Supply Chain is controlled by the private sector and most of the farmers are not informed about Minimum Support Price and adopt unscientific farming practices. With liquidity constraint in the economy, demand for essential food is substantial. Factoring the drawbacks of PDS in supplying food items to the bottom section – a high probability of market failure is underway potentially hurting both farmers and consumers. Except for concessional credit for farmers and agriculture loans, the package has limited scope to reduce the distress faced by the agrarian sector in near future. As far as the reforms are concerned, there was a clear bias towards post harvest investment. However, the productivity and scale of production has been the biggest problem in India that requires effective land reforms. India’s agriculture sector also suffers without adequate investment in Technology and Research & Development. During an unprecedented crisis, Indian government is pushing for big reforms but the structural issues of marginal-land farming are largely ignored. Even as a reform package─it is evident that it is likely to benefit primarily large farmers in the medium term.
Except for concessional credit for farmers and agriculture loans, the package has limited scope to reduce the distress faced by the agrarian sector in near future.
Infrastructure, Defence & Aerospace
Under this package, eight key sectors: coal, minerals, defence production, aerospace management, airports, power distribution, space and atomic energy were in the spotlight. In an effort to boost employment, a proclamation of structural reforms was stated in the fourth tranche. The coal and mining industry is expected to receive an infrastructure development fund – making the sector self-reliant in production. The Foreign Direct Investment limit in defence has been increased from 49 percent to 74 percent to encourage foreign investment in production. In the aviation industry, India decided to open up 6 airports for auction. Additionally, three airports are to be operated under the Public Private Partnership model. Optimization of air space, building a hub for aircraft maintenance and overhaul are some of the important measures covered under this package.
Privatization and Globalization (New Economic Policy, 1991)- COVID-19 crisis has offered a space for the government to initiate certain radical measures to privatise a few industries.
Private partnerships in the areas of space exploration and atomic energy offers an immense potential for private companies to get incubated for research and development. Sharing an economic pressure similar to the 1991 Balance of Payment crisis that resulted in Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization (New Economic Policy, 1991)- COVID-19 crisis has offered a space for the government to initiate certain radical measures to privatise a few industries. The measures will undoubtedly help the business ecosystem in India to develop in the medium term. Though there seems to be a claim about substantial job creation this is not likely to happen immediately.
Rural Employment & Public Health
In the final announcement, Rs 40,000 crore was allotted to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) to replace direct transfer from central government to migrant workers. Inadequate data about inter state informal labourers has placed limitations on policy formulation during the time of crisis. Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojna, Rs 50 lakh per person insurance cover will be applicable for health professionals. To ensure ease of doing business, non adherence to the Companies’ Act will be decriminalised. The government also committed to increasing health expenditure to face pandemics in the future. The finance minister also encouraged companies to entertain the idea of digital India to conduct meetings and businesses online.
The last two announcements together accounted for Rs 48,500 crore and experts criticize that most of them do not provide immediate relief for the people in distress.
Conclusion
India has evidently seized the opportunity during the crisis to introduce reforms to boost the economy in the long run. The reform package undoubtedly is impressive on paper but in terms of immediate support to various sectors in distress it offers little. For example, a large part of the package – Rs 8.04 lakh crore- is additional liquidity injected by monetary policy in the last three months. An investment bank has predicted that India will face a deeper recession in the short term but the economic stimulus would help the economy after a few quarters. As a consequence the real growth rate is to drop down by 5 percent year-on-year in 2020. Even after a massive package, the situation of poor and middle-class people remains bleak. The reforms might bear fruits in future but deferring the policy response to address current challenges will manifest into huge burden on vulnerable sections of the people. Current economic crisis has undoubtedly offered the central government to take advantage of the weak bargaining power of the stakeholders to push reforms but low attention is paid to immediate distress.
The author was supported by Ms S P Bharani, on summer internship at TPF.
Image Credit: Adobe Stock
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CDS: A Welcome Reform and the Challenges Ahead
The Year 2020 ushered in a momentous reform for higher defence management (HDM) in India with the government implementing PM Narendra Modi’s announcement made earlier from the ramparts of the Red Fort on 15th Aug 2019, on establishing the institution of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). Retiring Army Chief General Bipin Rawat, not surprisingly, was appointed as the first CDS of the Indian Armed Forces. The unique honour brings with it myriad challenges lying ahead for the new appointee.
To those at home and abroad who are accustomed to the working of governments of all political hues in India it should not be a surprise that this critically vital appointment took over 18 years to materialise. To recall, as part of the many HDM reforms this appointment was also approved by the NDA led Vajpayee government way back in 2001, after the 1999 Kargil War, based on the recommendations of the Subramanyam led Kargil Review Committee (KRC). Bureaucratic sluggishness, lack of will among different political dispensations as also the fact that there could be indifference on matters of even national security broadly explain the long delay. Thus, the Modi government deserves full credit for institutionalizing the long overdue appointment of the CDS. However, the designated role of CDS, the status and the government charter laying down all the details are still being worked out.
Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS)
As promulgated by the government, the CDS will be a ‘four star’ officer and will be considered as the ‘first among equals’ in relation to the chiefs of the Army, Navy and the Air Force. He will be the permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) and can serve till 65 years of age. KRC recommended that CDS appropriately should be a ‘five star officer’ considering his onerous responsibilities and role.
Now that the government has given the green signal for the CDS to commence functioning to provide the desired levels of integration in all tri-service matters including policy, operational, training, communications, logistical aspects and so on, the CDS will be confronted with myriad challenges in achieving his onerous missions. Apart from an unwavering encouragement support from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Defence (MOD), the CDS will require more than a willing assistance from the three services to truly get-off the ground. As is natural and customary, no service likes to shed its resources and time honoured responsibilities to newer organizations. Having raised the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) way back in 2002, as a result of the same KRC recommendations, I am more than aware of the reluctance of the three Services to shed some of their assets and roles which will now be managed by the CDS. Thus, General Rawat will have to orchestrate extracting resources from the three Services for the new organizations, formations and units directly under his command being raised, with tact and sensitivity.
Re-organisation of MOD: an analysis
The MOD, till recently,functioned with four departments namely the Departments of Defence (DOD), Defence Production, Defence Research and Development as well as Ex Servicemen Welfare – each headed by a Secretary – ranked officer. On 30th Dec 2019, the government promulgated a gazette notification establishing the fifth department to be called the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) to be headed by the newly appointed CDS. The Rules of Business existing since 1961 and reallocation of certain responsibilities with the Defence Secretary have been modified though this has also invited adverse comments from defence analysts in India on the ground that the desired level of responsibilities had not been given to the CDS.
In the last many years, right from the acceptance of the KRC and its approval by LK Advani led Group of Ministers and subsequently by the Vajpayee government in 2001, it had been accepted by all that the CDS was urgently required as a major reform of India’s higher defence management. The CDS was required to provide single-point professional military advice to the political leadership. However, what apparently has happened now is that the CDS will be providing his advice to the Defence Minister only and not to both the Prime Minister and Defence Minister. Many see in this, a case of bureaucratic play to reduce the importance of the CDS.
In the orders recently issued by the government, four key responsibilities have been taken away from the DOD under the Defence Secretary and now put under the DMA which includes the three services and their headquarters, the Territorial Army and works relating to the army, navy and the air force. Non-capital purchases and promoting jointness in procurement, operations, training, communications, logistics (including repairs and maintenance) and encouraging use of indigenous equipment and platforms will be in the CDS charter.
Entry 1 of the amended charter for the DOD states that “Defence of India and every part thereof including defence policy and preparation for defence and all such acts as may be conducive in times of war to its prosecution and after its termination to effective demobilization” will be with the Defence Secretary. This has apparently been done to ensure the primacy of the civil bureaucracy. Why can’t the responsibility of defence policy and the mandate for defence of India not rest with the Defence Minister if this charter, was to be kept away from the CDS?
Why can’t the responsibility of defence policy and the mandate for defence of India not rest with the Defence Minister if this charter, was to be kept away from the CDS?
The other amendment is in the field of defence purchases where the earlier formulation of “procurement exclusive to the defence services” has been altered to “capital acquisition exclusive to the defence services.” This means that big-ticket acquisitions will be in the Defence Secretary’s ambit creating an impression of paucity of faith in the CDS in this matter.
The existing HQ Integrated Defence Staff could have been the backbone for this new integrated structure within the MOD brining about cost-effectiveness as well.
The Department of Military Affairs will have a structure that rightly includes civilian bureaucracy as well. The CDS will be assisted by two joint secretaries and a dozen deputy secretary level officers. Ideally not only the CDS but the entire MOD should have seen complete integration of the civil bureaucracy with the military. The existing HQ Integrated Defence Staff could have been the backbone for this new integrated structure within the MOD brining about cost-effectiveness as well. Military and civil officers should be working in various departments of the MOD in unison. The Defence Secretary could have been retained, as the coordinator of all the departments. The DMA could have been headed by a Secretary level Vice Chief of the Defence Staff (VCDS) to enable the CDS, in the MOD, to concentrate primarily on critical strategic issues for advising the Prime Minister and Defence Minister on macro-management of defence strategy.
The Defence Secretary’s charter also includes military cantonments, veterinary and military farms, land acquisition for defence, Border Roads Organisation, purchasing food items for defence and even the Canteen Stores Department – virtually covering all issues and portfolios related to financial expenditure and management! Surprisingly, even the management of the National Defence College (NDC) and the Institute of Defence Studies has been kept with the Defence Secretary!
The DMA could have been headed by a Secretary level Vice Chief of the Defence Staff (VCDS) to enable the CDS, in the MOD, to concentrate primarily on critical strategic issues for advising the Prime Minister and Defence Minister on macro-management of defence strategy.
Theatre commands
One of the critical issues, after the establishment of the CDS system, would be the widely discussed recommendation that integrated inter-service theatre commands should be established to exercise control over all operations in each theatre as practiced in many nations of the world including US and China. Currently the three services have their own operational commands that make for a total of 17 command HQs. In addition, the Indian Armed Forces through HQ IDS have under their control only one tri-service command headquarters, namely the Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC). The Strategic Forces Command (SFC), though led, manned and operated primarily by personnel from the three services have their ultimate command authority vested in the Nuclear Command Authority directly under the PM/National Security Council.
The CDS has been tasked with the responsibility of restructuring military commands for optimal utilization of resources by bringing in jointness in operations through the establishment of joint theatre commands. However, many Indian analysts opine that the armed forces should commence this integration after coursing out exhaustive trials initially for one command headquarters. The significant change must be analysed in its entirety and not rushed through. It may be prudent to adopt ‘best practices’ of some other formidable armed forces in the world and suitably adapt them for our own challenges and genius. Theatre commands, once finally agreed to, can be implemented in a graduated manner employing the incremental concept. In the services even with the current structures, far greater jointness in operational doctrines and plans, training, communications and logistics should be ensured first to establish synergy.
Theatre commands, once finally agreed to, can be implemented in a graduated manner employing the incremental concept.
The newly appointed CDS at a recently conducted press conference outlined the likely contours of the envisaged theatre commands. He stated that two integrated commands, namely the Air Defence Command and the Peninsular Command respectively will be raised in the coming year while they will endeavour to raise the first theatre command by 2022. Preliminary studies on the geographical and operational spans for five theatre commands along the northern and western borders are underway. In addition, the services are also carrying out an in-depth study to examine if Jammu and Kashmir should have a separate theatre command.
The Air Defence Command will be integrating all air defence assets including air defence missiles with the three services, coastal guns, air defence radars and air surveillance systems presently held with the three services. In view of potent air and ballistic missile threats from India’s adversaries, the Air Defence Command, to be headed by an air force officer, will assume critical significance in terms of its efficacy.
The Peninsular Command which, some naval officers want to call the Indian Ocean Command will look to merging the western and eastern naval commands. This command to be headed by a naval officer would be given dedicated air force assets and army troops. It would work to ensure India’s maritime security interests in the Indian Ocean region, both on the western and eastern sea-boards, and would also acquire the capably of conducting amphibious operations.
National Security Doctrine
As one of his top priorities, the CDS must have the Government Issue a National Security Doctrine which lays down a well-conceived and comprehensive strategic policy for the nation in the short, mid and long term perspective. It will be primarily an articulation of the nation’s overall vision and strategic intent. This document should naturally have both the non-classified and classified objectives which can be disseminated on a ‘need to know’ basis among concerned institutions and personalities in the country. The existing HQ IDS have endeavoured in the past to produce perspective plans for the Indian Armed Forces and have the requisite expertise to produce such policy documents for approval by the government.
HQrs Andaman and Nicobar Command and newer agencies
As mentioned earlier, the Indian Armed Forces have under their direct ambit only one tri-service command, namely HQ ANC. This Command HQ is of critical significance for its role in dominating the sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean and preventing the ever-assertive PLA Navy from indulging in mischief in these waters. The CDS would no doubt accord adequate attention to a further strengthening of the strategic combat capabilities of HQ ANC for handling maritime challenges that will only multiply on India’s eastern seaboard and in the entire Indo-Pacific region.
For CDS challenges emanating from the entire spectrum of warfare encompassing all domains are a priority. The CDS will also be overseeing the establishment of the recently sanctioned Cyber and Special Forces agencies besides the Defence Space Agency. These entities in the years ahead could qualify for being upgraded to the levels of Command HQs. As widely known, the domains of cyber and space are the battlegrounds of the future – and there the foresighted Chinese have stolen a march even over hi-tech western agencies including those of the US. India, despite being an IT super power, has still a long way to go to bridge the gap between itself and China in this aspect.
CDS: Nuclear Military Adviser
The CDS will now be overseeing the functioning of the SFC far more intimately than was done earlier by the COSC as he has also been designated as the Nuclear Military Adviser to the government. The presence of a senior military officer in the Nuclear Command Authority is a step in the right direction for he would be able to provide the necessary expertise and fillip to the nation’s nuclear preparedness. The CDS may wish to advise the government to review its entire Nuclear Doctrine and revisit the policies of “No-First Use” and “Massive Retaliation”. Also, it may be necessary to re-examine whether India should go in for the development of tactical nuclear weapons for limiting a nuclear exchange. India’s two adversaries, China and Pakistan, are both reckonable nuclear powers and India’s nuclear preparedness has, therefore, to match up to them.
Defence budgets and inter service prioritization
It is a strategic truism that the Indian Armed Forces have to be prepared to confront a “two-front war”. Mandated to provide integrated “single-point military advice” to the government, the CDS will have to rise above service loyalties and professionally prioritize conflicting inter-service requirements in the larger interests of the nation. This assumes greater significance in the current scenario where the combat capabilities of the Indian Armed Forces have to be accorded substantial accretions in an environment of great financial strain facing the nation. The volatile situation in West Asia will be greatly impacting the energy security of India and this will further tax India’s currently faltering economy. Thus, the first test for the newly appointed CDS will have to be to convince the financially stressed government to make larger allocations in the capital budget for speedy acquisition of much needed modern weapon systems. As is known, India’s depleting fighter aircraft and submarine fleets, other deficiencies in other platforms, various types of ammunition and spares, force-multipliers etc need concerted attention. Last year’s defence budget had been allocated merely 1.49 per cent of the GDP whereas successive parliamentary committees have recommended at least 3 per cent of the GDP to be assigned for defence. Unfortunately, even this year’s recently announced defence budget has been dismal – considering the big-ticket acquisitions required by the armed forces.
In the current charter issued by the government, any big-ticket acquisitions will remain in the Defence Secretary’s purview and thus final negotiations with foreign collaborators, Indian Defence Public Sector Undertakings or Indian private industry would rest with the DOD and the Defence Secretary. Delays as earlier are likely to occur. With “Make in India” and “Start-up India” initiatives not yet taking off, the government needs to revisit these areas involving the CDS institution.
Coordination with civil agencies
One of the tasks that can do with better handling is improving the coordination between the armed forces and other civilian governmental agencies who are, also handling various other aspects of national security. The CDS structure now will be an important institution to improve coordination between the MHA, MOD, NSAB and NSC Real-time information or intelligence sharing between the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the other national intelligence agencies like the Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing, National Technical Research Organisation and other newer intelligence that had come up in the last few years will hopefully improve. However, to start with, the CDS must put the Service Intelligence Directorates of the three services directly under command of the DIA for better effectiveness in the exacting intelligence domain.
Recommendations: overall mandate for CDS
The CDS has been formally appointed and his role enunciated and as the appointment matures in the immediate future, a further refinement of his responsibilities should be undertaken. These should include the following: –
- The CDS should be designated as the Principal Defence Advisor to the Prime Minister (through the Defence Minister) on all matters pertaining to India’s national security.
- The CDS should provide an overarching ‘strategic vision’ to the government and be responsible for all strategic planning for the armed forces, including all war plans and contingency planning. During peacetime, preparedness for future operations, in the strategic domain, should be one of the prime responsibilities of the CDS. He will have to synergize the mission and assets of the three services in various theatres to achieve the nation’s strategic objectives.
- The CDS must be made responsible for overall financial planning, budgetary allocations and force structuring for the three services.
- The CDS should oversee the preparation of the annual Defence Intelligence Estimate which obtains requisite strategic intelligence inputs for overall defence planning.
- The establishment of theatre commands, the functioning of other tri-service commands like the Strategic Forces Command, Andaman and Nicobar Command and others which may come up in the future like the Air Defence, Cyber, Space and Special Forces Commands must get the utmost attention of the CDS.
Conclusion
The coming years in an increasingly troubled world and especially in our volatile neighbourhood portend diverse and formidable challenges to India’s security and economic resurgence. Consequently, an earnest effort must be made to meet them. A major HDM reform like the recent establishment of the CDS edifice goes a long way in the optimal utilization of India’s resources for defence and enhancing its operational preparedness across the entire spectrum of warfare. All new institutions at their start do face various problems and the office of the CDS will be no exception. But it must get whole-hearted support from the PMO, MOD and the three services themselves in successfully fulfilling the onerous responsibilities and roles assigned to it.
Views expressed are the author’s own.
This article was published earlier in Chanakya.
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Lebanon’s Economic Crisis and Political Unrest
The Lebanon crisis illustrates the outcome of an inefficiently regulated market economy, shaped by long-term instant gratification of economic policies. Economy is run by corrupt institutions with ingrained crony capitalism, bureaucratic regulations and over-reliance on foriegn exchange.
Lebanon is a free market economy in West Asia, bordered by Syria and Israel and the Mediterranean Sea, and hence, was a frequent recipient of spillovers of unrest and refugee crisis from the neighbouring countries. It is a service-sector dominated (majorly, banks and tourism) economy with a GDP of $56.9 billion─ growth rate of 0.2%, compared to 0.6% the previous year and a workforce of 2.4 million out of which 30 percent include Syrian refugees. The country relies heavily on imports (consumer goods, machinery and equipment etc) with a low dependence on exports (vegetables, non-precious metals and textiles). For years, Lebanon used foreign remittances such as transfers from non-resident Lebanese, foreign deposits and high government loans to balance the trade deficit. Lebanon exchange rate had been kept fixed at 1500 pounds per dollar which was also a fiduciary currency in Lebanon. Thus the higher demand for dollars to fixate the exchange rate, and meet the domestic demand for dollars, is levelled using foreign deposits by offering high yield rates, which had to be further funded by more deposits at even higher interest rates. These faulty policies had sustained the economy until interest payments had snowballed into heavy burden.
Figure 1: trend of GDP per capita in Lebanon
Source: Trading Economics
Lebanese economy is also characterized by high government debt, substantially from domestic banks, borrowed primarily for reconstruction of the economy post civil war (1975-90). Over the years, the government relied more heavily on deficit financing to meet government spending, while the weak governance and corrupt politicians moved along with unfulfilled reforms and poor economic development. There was an underprovision of basic necessities like hassle-free electricity supply, regular water and waste management. On the other hand, crony capitalism had built up, with favours laid out to private businesses which were ultimately owned by rich, exploitative politicians. The debt-to-GDP ratio peaked to 150% by 2019, with a budget deficit of 11.5% of GDP and 50% of the revenues are consumed in debt servicing. This led to an economic crisis, followed by a political crisis, and ultimately snowballed into a financial crisis, rendered vulnerable and in desperate need of foreign aid to see the day.
Evidently, though Lebanon crisis started in late 2019, it is the result of long term economic policies mismanaged by corrupt political elite; when the government proposed to tax ‘free-calls in Whatsapp’ to meet the mounting budget deficit in October 2019, protests erupted across the country, catapulting into political unrest and ousting the prime minister. Investors and citizens lost confidence in the system, and led to reducing capital inflows.
Their sovereign bonds were rated as highly risky assets (probable default), leading to interest rates as high as 15%. The political uncertainty and the liquidity crunch, led to freezing of external deposits, while the steady domestic and foreign demand for dollars persisted, leading to a shortage of USD. The banks levied restrictions (weekly quotas) on dollar withdrawals, the dollar rate spiked, depreciating the pound, and reducing the purchasing power of the pound. This had squeezed the middle and low income strata the most, draining their last pounds of savings, since their debts substantially constituted dollar repayments. Businesses relying on dollars for most part were affected as the price of imports sky-rocketed, and the oil crunch tightened until the central government stepped in to ease the situation. The condition degraded further by the onset of Coronavirus and the lockdown, which led to widespread unemployment and inflation. The World Bank estimated that 50% of Lebanese population could be pushed below the poverty line by 2020 if immediate action is not taken.
The debt of Lebanon has built up to 124464 billion LBP, i.e nearly $82 billion and the country has become the 3rd most indebted country in the world. In March 2020, Lebanon government, as a decisive step to prioritize the domestic concerns of the country and retain sustainable foreign exchange reserves in the economy, had defaulted on the Eurobond debt of $1.2 billion for the first time. The ailing economy seeks to restructure the other outstanding debts amounting to $31 billion and has been seeking advice, especially from the IMF on debt restructuring measures. There is a need for an ‘economic rescue plan’ to protect the depositors from this worst economic crisis Lebanon has faced.
Figure 2: trend of Lebanon government’s debt
Source: Trading Economics
Foreign aid from the institutions is a big responsibility, as it would demand austerity measures from the economy that had dwelled in capitalistic pleasures for so long. Though, CEDRE and foreign countries like France and UK have promised ‘soft’ loans to the Lebanese government, economists believe that external aid would be unproductive, and will become an additional debt burden on the already bleeding financial system unless government inculcates greater transparency and accountability to the public, ousting corruption and following through on long-term economic policies with commitment. Lebanon government is also seeking aid from the IMF. But this would certainly entail strict reform targets linked to the outflow of credit and hence, is very unlikely.
For the immediate future, Lebanon’s economic policies should be directed towards increasing self-reliance in the economy, with higher focus on manufacturing sectors to create employment. Financial policies to stabilize the economy are of primary concern. It is time to make up for the blunders of non-performing investments in the electricity industry. Investments on infrastructural development should be realized and substantial attention should be given to improving socio-economic conditions of the people. Construction and manufacturing industries should be supported. Actions should be taken to handle the refugee situation, and check the drain of human capital out of the country. It could be said that Lebanon’s government has a long way to go before it can regain the confidence of its people and the foreign investors in order to stabilize the economy.
Current Scenario
Covid 19 has a destructive and deleveraging impact on all the economies, and Lebanon is no exception. The economy is heavily dependent on the service sector, especially tourism, and foreign remittances. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has been devastating on the money the expats send home, which makes up nearly 12.7% of the GDP, making Lebanon the second-most remittances dependent middle-eastern country, only behind Palestine. Amid the collapsing economy and the disruption triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the only certainty is the gathering pace of Lebanon’s political unrest.
REFERENCES
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/world/middleeast/lebanon-economic-crisis.html
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-s-behind-lebanon-s-economic-crisis-35874
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/middleeast/lebanon-debt-financial-crisis.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/middleeast/lebanon-debt-financial-crisis.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/world/middleeast/lebanon-protests.html
DATA- https://data.worldbank.org/country/lebanon
https://www.britannica.com/place/Lebanon/Trade
https://tradingeconomics.com/lebanon/government-debt
Image Credit: Adobe Stock