The Peninsula Foundation

Category: TPF Analysis

  • Proposing a Legal Framework for Distribution of the COVID-19 Vaccination [Part I]

    Proposing a Legal Framework for Distribution of the COVID-19 Vaccination [Part I]

    Introduction

    Distributing the COVID-19 vaccination has been touted as the biggest policy decision in 2021. This stems from the utility and efficacy of vaccines in immediately addressing pandemics. Specifically, the COVID-19 vaccination not only protects the injected person, with a 70%-95% efficacy[1] but also provides ‘herd immunity’.[2] That is, the non-injected population is also benefited due to a reduced risk of transmission and infection, so long as 70% of individuals in society are vaccinated. Therefore, access to the vaccine determines how much and for whom the adversity of the pandemic is mitigated.

    Currently, most vaccine developers are in the final two phases of clinical trials, with some, like Pfizer/BioNTech’s and Oxford University/AstraZeneca’s, already receiving ‘emergency use authorization’ from multiple countries. Most countries have prepared a ballpark action plan for distribution, while the United Kingdom has already vaccinated more than 3.5 million people.[3]

    In this paper, I evaluate the most ethical framework for distributing COVID-19 vaccinations, amongst the population of one country, by its government. I address this question from the perspective of marginalized communities, using the approaches of realism, syndemics, and intersectionality. In Part I of this article, I will evaluate the conventional models for vaccine distribution. In Part II, I will provide an alternative framework for reassessing vulnerabilities during a pandemic, and propose a multi-value ethical framework.

    1. Evaluating the Conventional Models for Vaccine Distribution

    The decision to distribute COVID-19 vaccines is inherently ethical because it involves allocating an important resource in a resource-scarce world. Thus, determining who can pre-maturely mitigate the pandemic’s adversity. There are four models in conventional discourse that have sought to answer the distribution question. In this section, under each model, I will critically evaluate the role of law in distribution and the ethical values that guide prioritized distribution.

    Neoliberalism

    Neoliberalism is characterized by a strict separation between the state, society, and the market.[4] The objective of all economic activity in the markets is wealth and efficiency maximization.[5] To this end, greater involvement of the private sector in the economy is justified because the market allocation of resources is more efficient. Any state intervention beyond a minimum supporting role is conceived as inefficient because rent-seeking, corruption, and capture by special interests are inevitable.[6]

    The diminished role of the state in securing redistribution means that individuals are responsible for their welfare and income. Therefore, individuals would themselves be responsible for ensuring access to the vaccination, notwithstanding their socio-economic status. They must attain this access by successfully competing in the “free market”, through instruments like price point discovery.[7] The underlying rules of competition create a level playing field where fair bargaining over market transactions can occur, so long as the requisite effort is made. This is because the rules are universal in their applicability, and create a distinct economic space, free from state coercion.[8] Therefore, access to the vaccine is determined by one’s ability to pay for it.

    State intervention is only justified when there is a market failure, but even then, preference is accorded to non-state solutions like direct public action or self-regulation.[9] Neoliberalism addresses equity concerns, like non-access to the vaccine, through safety nets and income transfers rather than through market regulation.[10] Otherwise, inefficiencies are introduced into the system, which distorts market incentives, and thus undermines the goal of economic growth.[11] This means that vaccine developers would lose the incentive to undertake expedient and mass production.

    Critique:         Neoliberalism denies that any redistribution to disadvantaged groups is covered by legal reforms. There is no focus on how economic gains are distributed, and the effect of reforms on vulnerable social groups.[12]Neoliberalism’s refusal to acknowledge the distributive function of legal regulation is flawed because rules necessarily always operate to distribute resources and powers to various groups and actors in particular ways.[13] The neoliberal machinery devises a particular allocation of risks, resources, powers, costs, burdens and benefits among different market actors. The effect is that the existing propertied class receive greater entitlement, whilst others are disadvantaged.[14] This perpetuates the inequalities already in status quo, impacting accessibility to the vaccine. Therefore, the relevant question is not whether distributive concerns must be considered, but rather their manner of incorporation in the process of market reform. To this end, the state, which guarantees the regulatory underpinnings of a market economy, must inherently play a greater role in regulating the distribution of economic gains from the market.

    The idea to distribute vaccines based on personal purchasing power is flawed because it ignores the fact that vaccines possess inelastic demand. Therefore, given short supply at short-term and medium-term levels, the price will continually go up to unaffordable rates. This increased price does not encourage new suppliers because the intellectual property rights and R&D is held only by a few developers.[15]

    Utilitarianism

    Utilitarianism assesses the morality of a decision based on its consequences, whether it maximizes benefits and/or minimizes harms. Under this rationale, priority is accorded based on the greatest clinical risks and greatest utility to social functioning. The clinical factors consider the risk of severe morbidity and mortality, risk of infection, and risk of transmission.[16] The greatest utility to society is measured in terms of the risk of negative societal impact, i.e., the public utility of one’s occupation/social role to society and other individuals’ lives and livelihood.[17]

    Therefore, in this pandemic, utilitarianism would prioritize age (above 50/60 years) and associated comorbidities (identified set of diseases) based on the risk of morbidity/mortality and infection, followed by occupation (healthcare and frontline workers) based on the risk of negative societal impact and risk of infection.[18]

    Critique:         Unlike neoliberalism, there is limited value in the utilitarian model because it recognizes the distributive role of law in allocating benefits. Moreover, it pursues this based on a rational objective criterion.

    However, its main problem lies in assessing vulnerabilities through only a clinical lens. It ignores that socio-economic factors also contribute to overall vulnerability during the pandemic, as I argue in the next section. Additionally, it doesn’t acknowledge that even within the identified categories, some are more vulnerable than others. Therefore, it has the effect of compounding existing socio-economic inequalities.

    Lottery

    This approach prioritizes distribution through a random selection of names. This is premised on the assumption that such selection is egalitarian and impartial, and also overcomes the inherent moral relativity/ambiguity of human reasoning.[19]

    Critique:         Random lotteries acknowledge the role of law in distributing benefits, but they lack any rational prioritization to effectively and immediately address the pandemic. While absolute objectivity is unattainable, avoiding moral reasoning altogether is merely “an easy method to avoid hard decisions”.[20] The assumption that everyone’s life is equally important fails to acknowledge the differential disparities that differentially threaten such lives.[21]

    First Come First Serve

    Like lotteries, this approach is premised on avoiding moral decisions and the assumption that everyone has an equal opportunity to access the vaccine.[22]

    Critique:         While this approach acknowledges the role of law in distributing benefits, it is completely blind to the socio-economic realities. Given scarcity, it is inevitable that access will be confined to those with better connections, access to information, communication, and transportation. All these factors are, in turn, tied to one’s socio-economic status. Thus, there is disproportionate denial to disadvantaged communities.

     

    References:

    [1] James Gallagher, ‘Covid vaccine update’ (BBC, 30 December 2020) <https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497> accessed 8 January 2021.

    [2] Rebecca Weintraub, ‘A Covid-19 Vaccine Will Need Equitable, Global Distribution’ (HBR, 2 April 2020) <https://hbr.org/2020/04/a-covid-19-vaccine-will-need-equitable-global-distribution> accessed 8 January 2021.

    [3] Lucy Rodgers & Dominic Bailey, ‘Covid vaccine: How will the UK jab millions of people?’ (BBC, 23 January 2021) <https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833> accessed 24 January 2021.

    [4] Manfred Steger & Ravi Roy, Neoliberalism (OUP 2010) 3-4.

    [5] Kerry Rittich, Recharacterizing Restructuring (Kluwer Law International 2002) 50-52.

    [6] Rittich (n 4) 55-59.

    [7] Sahil Deo, Shardul Manurkar, et al, ‘COVID19 Vaccine: Development, Access and Distribution in the Indian Context’ (2020) Observer Research Foundation Issue Brief No. 378, 6 <https://www.orfonline.org/research/covid19-vaccine-development-access-and-distribution-in-the-indian-context-69538/> accessed 8 January 2021.

    [8] Rittich (n 4) 131.

    [9] Rittich (n 4) 74-76.

    [10] Ibid.

    [11] Steger (n 4).

    [12] Rittich (n 4) 130.

    [13] Steger (n 11)

    [14] Rittich (n 4) 158-160.

    [15] Deo (n 7).

    [16] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine (National Academies Press 2020) 102-105.

    [17] National Academies (n 16) 8.

    [18] Ibid.

    [19] Richard Zimmerman, ‘Rationing of influenza vaccine during a pandemic’ (2017) 25 Vaccine 2019, 2023.

    [20] Ibid.

    [21] Erica Moser, ‘Many ethical questions involved in prioritizing groups for vaccine distribution’ (The Day, 13 December 2020) <https://www.theday.com/article/20201213/NWS01/201219766> accessed 8 January 2020.

    [21] Ibid.

    [22] Zimmerman (n 19).

     

    Image Credit: Crowd Wisdom 360

  • Performance-Based Pay for Teachers: A viable solution for Schools in India’s Rural Sector?

    Performance-Based Pay for Teachers: A viable solution for Schools in India’s Rural Sector?

    Over the last two decades, India’s education priorities have changed substantially. From a major focus on enrolment ratios and reducing drop-out rates, the priority is now on learning and skill outcomes and employability after education, thus stressing the importance of the development of ‘Human Capital’ for the country. The New Education Policy (2020)focuses majorly on this aspect of education, set in tune with the SDG4 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals that India adopted in 2015.  The SDG4 seeks to ‘Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all’, which forms a top priority in the 2030 Global Human Development agenda.

    While inequality between rural and urban schooling is vast and the learning outcome levels of students from such schools are dismal, and there is a need for reform in rural education policies, literature shows that simply adding resources and ‘Best Practices’ including comprehensive assessments, detailed ratings, and customised improvement plans have no proven impact on student learning

    Yet, things are gloomy for India in terms of education. According to ASER 2019 National Findings, while more than 90% of young children are enrolled in some type of educational institution, a huge proportion of them are unable to perform basic numeracy and early language.  Children from less advantaged homes are the worst affected. While inequality between rural and urban schooling is vast and the learning outcome levels of students from such schools are dismal, and there is a need for reform in rural education policies, literature shows that simply adding resources and ‘Best Practices’ including comprehensive assessments, detailed ratings, and customised improvement plans have no proven impact on student learning (K. Muralidharan, et al, 2020), (Pradhan et al. 2011). Evidence also shows that the right mix of teaching tools, pedagogy, and design can bring about an effective blended learning environment for students. ( M.J. Kintu, et al, 2017).

    But why are policies not getting implemented efficiently? The heart of the whole problem seems to be the poor delivery of teachers, especially public school teachers, who taught less, are less qualified, and deliver dismal outcomes. While on the other hand, evidence (E.A. Hanushek, et al., 2012) also highlights the importance of ‘Teachers’ in delivering better outcomes, and consequently students attend college and earn some revenue. Thus, the only viable solution to better rural education is the betterment of teacher quality.

    Teacher Pay and Job Satisfaction

    Teacher absenteeism and lack of job satisfaction among the teachers have been the most discussed agendas while analysing dismal student performances in the rural areas, especially those from public schools. Teachers’ pay is the major chunk of all expenditure made on education in India. Teachers’ salaries make up around 80% of total non-capital expenditure on education. Around 50% of them get paid regularly despite their irregular attendance and lack of teaching or even deserting schools forever.  While pay for teachers might seem like the right way to nudge them towards delivering better outcomes, that is certainly not the case with public schooling in India.

    The dismal performance of Public-School teachers, even after a handsome pay can be related to their satisfaction from job security. Research shows that Public School teachers who report high job satisfaction are more likely to not be in class, and thus there can be inferred a negative correlation between the pay and satisfaction a teacher reports and the likeness of him/her to attend school, and even if attending school, to teach or not teach. Increasing teacher pay, in this case, might seem absurd but it is primarily due to a lack of accountability. But evidence also shows an increase in teacher performance, and incentives in pay tend to be more effective when accountability is well addressed.

    The Public-Private Dichotomy

    While financial incentives seem like a good gimmick to increase teacher performance, and in-turn student output, things yet seem gloomy in the public education system. Private School teachers in fact overwork and are underpaid, according to reports. Though learning and teaching outcomes are far better in the private education scenario, Public School teachers are the ones that enjoy the most benefit out of the rest.

    Teacher pay in Public Schools across the country is higher than that of teachers from private schools. According to the Seventh Pay Commission, the basic salary of primary and high school teachers is between Rs. 29,900 and Rs. 100,000 with additional grade pay. While the teachers in various levels in Public Schools get paid their salary according to the scale, this is rarely the case with private school teachers. According to reports, 85% of private schools in Delhi don’t pay teachers as per the pay scale laid down by the commission. Non- Implementation of the seventh-pay commission recommendations, lack of balance between workload, outcome levels and pay disparity with the government or public schools haunt private school teachers, despite the various recommendations and policy amendments to correct the inequality.

    Long-standing debates on whether the ‘Minimum Wage’ rule applies to private schools or not continue to remain ambiguous. In the last decade, when private schools paid a pittance to their teachers, legislative wings have denied the availability of a ‘Minimum Wage’ system to teachers in Private Unaided Schools. Up until today, there’s no such legislation that specifies a salary structure for teachers employed in private schools, except for the non-teaching staff who have coverage under the ‘Minimum Wages Act’. Even if prevalent in certain states the ‘Minimum Wages Act’ is openly violated by schools. The Government of Kerala, in the year 2019 sought to bring legislation to ensure minimum wages for school teachers, which wasn’t very successful. Other states including Karnataka have stressed the importance of paying better salaries to the teachers, by fixing a stipulated minimum monthly salary for teaching and non-teaching staff, and this might bring in more burden to parents in the form of fees; several extra and co-curricular activities must be made optional for parents to be able to leverage their fee burden, alongside quality education to the children.

    While the private sector still stands as a model of performance-based pay, this is seen as a ubiquitous and powerful tool in the private sector. While teachers in public schools are already well paid, providing additional incentives would just weigh upon the already existing expenses on public education. This increased expenditure on teachers’ pay makes Public Schools more expensive than their private counterparts, with low teacher accountability. Interestingly, evidence shows that by implementing a performance-based policy, the government would have just saved under Rs. 2,000 Billion over the 25 years from 1987-2012.  This again brings us to the question of whether increased financial incentives to public school teachers are any good and feasible?

    Evidence on Performance-Based Pay

     A study by Barrera, O and Raju, D(2017) relating to the first three years of a randomised control trial of a government-administered pilot teacher performance pay program in Punjab and Pakistan proves yearly cash bonuses to teachers in a sample of 600 public primary schools with the lowest mean student exam scores is linked to an increase in schools’ average student exam scores, increase in school enrolment ratio and the level of student exam participation in the school. A long term study by K. Muralidharan (2012) shows that students who completed their primary school under the performance-based pay programme performed better than their peers in control schools by 0.54 standard deviation in Mathematics.

    However, interventions in the forms of performance pay had an impact neither on student performance nor on the teacher’s reported attitude or behaviour towards teaching and absenteeism. On the other hand, a study by Neal and Schanzenbach (2010) points out that performance-based pay might encourage ill practices such as cheating during exams, which doesn’t hold any good to both the entities. The cost-effectiveness of a performance-based pay model is studied by Muralidharan and Sundararaman(2011) and shows a relation between additional funds and performance-based pay.

    Pay Design and other Models

     The ‘Contract Teachers’ model can work well for public schools. In this Teachers employed for relatively shorter durations, bound by a contract that can be terminated easily, play an important role in extending education to an increased number of children in an affordable manner. Studies involving student learning in rural schools (Muralidharan and Sundararaman,2010) show that while contract teachers are relatively cheaper to acquire over the normal long-term teachers, their impact on students and their performance is comparatively better. While the evidence suggests that performance-based pay might be a difficult model to implement in the public education front, hiring ‘Contract Teachers’ might be the right way out. Recent trends emerging out of the pandemic suggests paying teachers based on the hours of work done. The pandemic disruption has given rise to online education but teaching online requires different skills. Additionally, paying teachers based on the number of hours they work on a day will also help in cutting costs and finances for the employer.

    Constraints in revenues and a need to increase student learning makes ‘Tenure-track for teachers’ a viable option for schools.

    On the other hand, an ideal model of performance-based pay would help in solving the basic problems and inequalities in the system. Constraints in revenues and a need to increase student learning makes ‘Tenure-track for teachers’ a viable option for schools. This model, largely in practice in the western universities, might just be what rural schools in India need. This model, somewhat similar to the ‘Performance Pay’ model, rewards teachers by extending their tenures based on their performance. Good on finances and learning, this model can be the next big thing in rural education, given the constraints in learning and teaching. On the contrary, the ‘Tenure-track’ model might only work in the presence of a good evaluation system to measure teacher and student performances. Given the state of public and rural education and evaluation in India, this might be daunting. Proper evaluation methods to measure and analyse teacher performance is imperative for this model to work in the country.

    A best-fit pay model, with proper tools to measure student performance alongside teacher’s accountability, would do well with teachers all over the country. Alongside, proper publicity of such a pay model would make people familiar with the options. A study by Leaver, et.al.,(2019) shows that the impact of such programmes is higher when it is well advertised and familiar with the ones falling in the bracket.

    Conclusion

     This finally brings us to the question of whether the performance-based pay model might be the best fit for schools in rural India, that are mostly run and maintained by states and district administrations. Performance-based pay, though proven in increasing student performance, also contains a major loophole. Teachers may resort to malpractices like – letting students cheat during exams to show better results and malpractices during evaluation. In Rural India, where proper systems to evaluate the performance of teachers is not in place, the Performance-based pay model may become counter-productive given the lack of accountability and implementation challenges.

    While performance-based pay models have earned good results in the developing nations alike, the remote corners of India might not be the best place for its implementation, until and unless the teachers and all the stakeholders are well-informed of its implementation and proper evaluation mechanism for both the teacher and the student. In India where most public schools are hampered by teachers’ absenteeism and dismal delivery, increasing the pay of the teachers would just result in increased risks of teachers staying at home, without actually resulting in any improvement in their commitment and work methodology. Besides, it may encourage malpractices to show improved performance of students.

    Making teachers accountable to their performance and delivery is the first step towards effective policy change.

    In conclusion, Performance-based pay models may not be a suitable model to increase teacher performance in public schools. Whereas, other methods, such as hiring contract teachers and tenure-tracking might work better in the long run, given a proper evaluation of teacher’s performance in schools. Making teachers accountable to their performance and delivery is the first step towards effective policy change. If proper mechanisms are in place, shifting to various effective models like – Tenure Tracking or Contract Teaching become easier and more effective.

    Image Credit: Poverty Action Lab

  • Understanding the Catalonian Crisis through the Relative Deprivation theory

    Understanding the Catalonian Crisis through the Relative Deprivation theory

    On 1st October 2017, people in Catalonia, a semi-autonomous region in Spain, held a referendum in which 90 percent of those who participated sought to break away from the Spanish state and create the independent Republic of Catalonia. This referendum which endorsed independence was declared illegal by the Spanish government. This declaration was based on a ruling by the Constitutional Court, and the results of the referendum were also not taken seriously by the international community. Since then, Catalonia has remained politically deadlocked. While the Spanish government and the leaders of the separatist movement in Catalonia have participated in discussions and formal talks have been opened in 2020, there has been no resolution to this festering political crisis.

    A deep sense of relative deprivation has entered the minds of the Catalan people wherein they feel that the Spanish identity has been given more prominence in comparison to their Catalan identity.

    This desire for independence as expressed by the people of Catalonia did not emerge suddenly but had been simmering for an extended period. The social mobilisation occurred because of the frustration that they have as a result of a lack of representation of their culture and language within the Spanish state. The hostility shown to demands of more autonomy and representation has also led to more anger. A deep sense of relative deprivation has entered the minds of the Catalan people wherein they feel that the Spanish identity has been given more prominence in comparison to their Catalan identity.

    While there is a long history of oppression and centralisation, the recent turmoil, however, started in 2010 when the Spanish Constitutional Court quashed a law passed by the regional parliament of Catalonia which updated the autonomous government’s statute. This statute dating to 1979 mapped the relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain. The court rejected articles in the statute that put the Catalan language above the Spanish language and any articles that referred to Catalonia as a nation rather than as a region.

    This article seeks to understand the reason behind the Catalonian crisis using the relative deprivation model put forth by Ted Gurr. This model has been used to clarify how cultural and linguistic suppression of the Catalan people has led to collective turmoil.

    Relative Deprivation Model of Gurr

    Gurr’s relative deprivation model states that when a sense of deprivation emerges in a group in relation to another group, then it can lead to collective violence or dissatisfaction. Gurr uses a psychological approach to explain why anger or frustration caused by a sense of deprivation is a motivating instrument that can make people more inclined towards aggression.

    The term relative deprivation is used by Gurr who defines it as “actor’s perception of discrepancy between their value expectations (the goods and conditions of the life to which they believe they are justifiably entitled) and their value capabilities (the amounts of those goods and conditions that they think they can get and keep)”. Thus, if there is a discrepancy between what people in a group believe they should get and what they do get then, it leads to frustration, disturbance, and a sense of deprivation. The greater the gap between the expectations of the people and reality, the higher the magnitude for aggression and civil strife. One important thing to note here is that the sense of deprivation is always in relation or comparison to another group.

    Gurr further states that the magnitude of the civil strife or dissatisfaction is dependent on the intensity of the sense of deprivation among the people of the group. As per the relative deprivation theory, there are certain factors or societal variables that have an impact on the relationship between deprivation and the ensuing civil strife. These societal variables include:  (a) coercive potential (of the government to put off the conflict), (b) institutionalisation (the extent to which societal structures may offer non-violent means for expressing dissatisfaction to the social group with the perceived deprivation), (c) social facilitation (that further facilitate strife) and lastly, (d) legitimacy of the political regime in which all this occurs.

    Applying the Relative Deprivation Model to the Catalonian situation

     By applying this theory to the Catalonian crisis, it is easy to see how the deprivation of the Catalan culture, language, and history frustrated the Catalan people and led to the unprecedented social mobilisation for independence from the Spanish state. The people of Catalonia are unsatisfied and angry with the way their culture and particularly, their language, is being slowly eroded as compared to the relevance and status accorded to the Spanish language.

    The Catalan people consider their language to be the principal element of their identity and believe that it is the ‘rallying cry of their solidarity’. The sidelining of their language is seen as an affront to their identity.

    Language is seen as a crucial distinguishing feature by the Catalan people and the speakers of Castilian Spanish. Many people living in Catalonia also want the Catalan language to be officially recognised by the European Union and put on par with the Spanish language even outside the country settings, which has not happened. The reversal of the statute that allowed for the exercise of Catalan language over the Spanish language in the region has brought the identity discord in the open. The Catalan people consider their language to be the principal element of their identity and believe that it is the ‘rallying cry of their solidarity’. The sidelining of their language is seen as an affront to their identity.

    The economic state of affairs further accentuates their anger over the under-representation of their language in museums, government offices, libraries, and all official channels of the central government in Madrid. Catalonia is one highly prosperous part of Spain but many in Catalonia feel that they are bearing the brunt of the high taxes and austerity measures for the rest of the country’s needs with whom they have little in common.

    Conclusion:

    Ted Gurr’s relative deprivation theory states that when a group of people feel that they are deprived of something, whether economically, socially or politically, in comparison to another group of people, they will feel frustrated and that frustration can lead to violence. The Catalonian crisis, when understood using this model, provides an incredibly accurate picture of how the suppression of one’s language and history can result in political strife.

    The Catalonian situation is quite similar to that of Scotland in the United Kingdom. People in Scotland are also quite proud of their distinct language (Gaelic), traditions and also have a strong sense of independent spirit which they believe is curtailed by the Westminster government. Scotland’s Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, recently indicated that she would pursue another referendum for independence in the coming year as support for an independent government has increased steadfastly in 2020 with the pandemic exposing the cracks in the current system.

    For both Catalonia and Scotland, the model followed in the erstwhile USSR in terms of accommodation of identities can provide a way forward or represent a comparatively better model of governance. Under Lenin’s leadership, striking flexibility with respect to the various countries encompassed within the Soviet Union in terms of expression of their individual nationalities was displayed. Lenin used a degree of accommodation towards peripheral nationalist tendencies displayed by the non-Russian states as he believed it to be a pragmatic solution. While political autonomy remained elusive to the non-Russian states, the accommodation of their national identities meant that they were somewhat satisfied. The Soviet state itself encouraged the use of local languages in schools and universities and even in the local administrative offices.

     

    References:

    “A Year Later: An Update on the Catalonian Independence Movement.” Columbia Journal of Transnational Law, 27 Nov. 2018, jtl.columbia.edu/a-year-later-an-update-on-the-catalonian-independence-movement/.

    “Catalonia: From Secessionism to Secession?” E-International Relations, www.e-ir.info/2016/01/15/catalonia-from-secessionism-to-secession/.

    “Catalonia: Past and Future.” Jacobin, www.jacobinmag.com/2017/10/catalonia-independence-franco-spain-nationalism.

    Gurr, Ted. “A causal model of civil strife: A comparative analysis using new indices.” American political science review 62.4 (1968): 1104-1124.

    Gurr, Ted Robert. “Why Men Rebel Redux: How Valid Are Its Arguments 40 Years On?” E-international Relations 17 (2011).

    Huddleston, R. Joseph. “The Roots of the Catalan Independence Crisis.” Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Magazine, 30 Oct. 2017, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/spain/2017-10-30/roots-catalan-independence-crisis.

    Marinzel, Anastazia. “Catalonia: The quest for independence from Spain.” (2014).

    “Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon Aims for 2021 Independence Vote.” The Indian Express, 1 Dec. 2020, indianexpress.com/article/world/scotland-nicola-sturgeon-aims-for-2021-independence-vote-7075166/

     

    Image Credit: “Catalonia is not Spain” by SBA73 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

  • Quad 2.0: Can it be a win-win for the four Democracies

    Quad 2.0: Can it be a win-win for the four Democracies

    China’s GDP expanded from USD 6 trillion in 2010 to USD 14.3 trillion in 2019. It has had exponential growth over the last three decades, with an average GDP growth rate of 9.23% from 1989 to 2020. Although the impact of the COVID pandemic pushed its GDP into decline and negative (-6.80%) in the first quarter of 2020, it has rebounded with a growth of 5% in the third quarter. It’s military spending, officially, is more than three times that of India, unofficially maybe five times or more. China has become one of the key players in the Indo-Pacific as a significant part of its economic activities depend on this region.

    The Indo-Pacific has replaced the Trans-Atlantic as the epicentre of global politics. Its importance to the global order is multifarious. In economic terms, one half of the world’s commercial influx goes through the Indo-Pacific sea routes and the Indian Ocean carries two-thirds of global oil shipments. Besides, a few of the biggest military spenders are part of the region. China’s hostile actions and policies have agitated the US, Japan, Australia and India. A shared concern over the expansion of China’s political and military clout was fundamental to the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad 2.0), on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, in 2017.

    Quad is seen as cooperation between four large democracies that share the idea of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific

    There is growing speculation over what the re-emergence of the Quad means. On the one hand, it is seen as cooperation between four large democracies that share the idea of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific; on the other, a strategic alliance towards keeping China’s assertive actions in check.

    The Quad: Overcoming Intransigence

    The Quad is a mechanism that enables a dialogue on regional security issues between the four countries. Its revival, this year, reflects an intersection of strategic interests: that of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order. The Quad came together in November for the naval exercise – Exercise Malabar – in two phases, in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The exercise, in its 24th edition, is the biggest so far and has sent significant strategic signalling to China.

    The Quad should be considered less as a formal alliance and more as a mechanism built on existing bilateral and trilateral partnerships between the four countries. It first emerged as a cooperative response to the 2004 tsunami, when the four navies were involved in providing humanitarian and disaster relief. Despite strong support from Japan and the US to formalise the group, it disbanded with Australia and India backing out in 2007, due to concerns about China’s reaction to the grouping. This gave rise to multilateral partnerships among the four countries.

    Between the four democracies, there are three trilateral and six bilateral partnerships. Trilaterally, Japan, India and Australia first came together in 2015 to discuss shared concerns over maritime security in the Indo-Pacific Region and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. More recently, the three countries agreed to develop a supply chain resilience program for the Indo-Pacific Region amid growing recognition of their excessive, economic reliance on China.

    Bilaterally, the US and India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) on October 27 that gives India access to American geospatial intelligence that will be useful for precision guidance of its missiles. Further, India-Australia ties have strengthened over the last few years with their initial 2+2 dialogue in 2017 and with Australian participation in India’s Milan exercise in 2018, focusing on interoperability between navies in the region.

    China and the Quad

    Over the years, the Indo-Pacific has emerged as a region of strategic importance. As China expands into the region, its actions have created tensions with the Quad members.

    Sino-Indian relations:  India-China relations have touched rock-bottom since the clashes on the LAC in Ladakh.  China’s intrusions and violations along the LAC have been backed up by significant massing of PLA forces, for the first time in 40 years. India’s strong actions at the LAC and subsequent sanctions and banning of Chinese IT applications have signalled that India is not shy of escalating its response. China’s actions are seen as part of its coercive strategy to India’s refusal to back China on BRI, and its vehement opposition to CPEC. It sees India’s closeness to the USA and its coordination in the Quad as a threat to China’s strategic interests.

    China’s increasing influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has raised India’s concerns. It has always been wary of ties between Beijing and Islamabad, which intensified with the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2013. The Chinese-operated Gwadar port off the Arabian Sea in Pakistan, which can be used by the Chinese navy to establish a submarine presence in the region, did not rest well with India. Such a port would also help China with its ‘Malacca Dilemma’. Other ports of such concern are Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukphyu in Myanmar. Though China claims these ports are of economic significance, these are also militarily strategic ports that give it an advantage in the IOR.

    In light of these issues, a revived and active Quad will benefit India’s strategic interests. The partnership could affect China in two ways. First, China would face increased competition in the IOR from India that now works with strong allies. Second, with the recent imposition of the technology ban, China stands to lose a large market for its products.

     Japan-China relations: Over the past few years, the situation in the South China Sea (SCS) has worsened with China’s land reclamation activities and militarisation of islands. Japan sees the South China Sea as key to its security because of its crucial sea lanes vital to its trade and economic health. It is also wary of China’s ability to influence the energy supply chains, which East Asia is dependent on, and the PLA’s movement in the Indo-Pacific region that could affect regional security.

    Despite its renewed trade with China and the recent signing of the RCEP, increased tensions in the SCS has forced Japan to support revival of the Quad. China’s increased naval and air activities in the South China Sea makes the Quad and its possible expansion into Quad Plus even more relevant for Japan.

    China-Australia relations: Australia backed out of the Quad in 2007 primarily because it was concerned about how China would view it, and the possible impact it might have on their bilateral trade. By 2017, China became Australia’s top export destination, and this trend has continued through 2019, pushing Australia into a dangerous economic dependency with China. Further, Australia’s 2016 White Paper called out China for its coercive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, identifying the South China Sea and the Southern Pacific as vital strategic regions.

    Australia’s economic dependence on China is high and this is unlikely to change despite the strong statements from prime minister Morrison.  Australia’s strong stand against China is also seen as emanating from American pressure. Australia actively supports Quad as it sees an increasingly powerful China working to change the world order. Australia is also a member of the newly signed RCEP, the new economic grouping that will be dominated by China. While Australia has hedged its economic interests by signing the RCEP, its strategic and security priorities are linked to the Quad.

    China-US relations:  China’s rising military power is now seen as a threat to American power and the liberal world order. Since 2011, American strategies and policies have focussed more on the Indo-Pacific. This shift in focus has strengthened its ties with Japan, Australia and India. Tensions between the US and China have increased since then and the 2018 trade war not only aggravated their relations but also kept the rest of the world on an edge.

    With a strong Quad partnership, the US expects to regain and strengthen its influence in the Indo-Pacific. For China already hit hard by the US trade war, more setbacks will accentuate the problems. Moreover, with a more focused Quad led by the US, China’s efforts to project its power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region will come under pressure.

     Conclusion

     A few aspects about the Quad remain unclear. First, its intent is still uncertain because the respective countries have to evaluate their relations with China if they want to make the bloc official. Second, if it were to be official, to what extent would it serve the interests of the member countries? Third, is the Quad a concert of democracies to contain China? Last, will it coordinate with other members in the Indo-Pacific region, that is will Quad translate into Quad Plus?

    China’s actions have managed to bring the four countries closer.  China, however, has scored a success when the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the world’s largest plurilateral trade agreement was signed on November 15th. Both Japan and Australia are members of the RCEP. Many see this as a setback for India and America, and an important building block in a new world order, in which China calls the shots all over Asia. It puts in doubt the viability of SCRI (Supply Chain Resilience Initiative), an effort by Quad members to create an alternative to Chinese domination of supply chains.

    The nature of China’s challenge to the global order and the Indo-Pacific is geoeconomics in design, as evidenced by its Belt and Road Initiative and its recent success in RCEP. The Quad will need to go beyond security cooperation.

    While security and military cooperation will help in checking China’s aggressive approach, it must be recognised that this alone will be an incomplete strategy. The nature of China’s challenge to the global order and the Indo-Pacific is geoeconomics in design, as evidenced by its Belt and Road Initiative and its recent success in RCEP. The Quad will need to go beyond security cooperation.

    The conclusion of RCEP maybe China’s gain, but it is important to recognise the fact that ASEAN is the main driver of RCEP. In attempting to balance China, ASEAN and Japan have kept the door open for India to re-join the RCEP. It is possible that the US, under the Biden presidency, may revive the TPP (now proposed by Japan as CATPP, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership), which could balance the RCEP. The Quad, in this context, will continue to be very relevant for peace and security in the Indo-Pacific.

     

  • Vietnam-US Relations under Biden Likely to Remain Unchanged

    Vietnam-US Relations under Biden Likely to Remain Unchanged

    Communist Party Chief and State President Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc have sent a congratulatory message to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden. Both leaders have also expressed hope that their comprehensive partnership will “continue to develop in a stable, effective manner, benefiting people of both countries and promoting peace, security, stability, cooperation and development in the region and the world”. Meanwhile, Vice President Dang Thi Ngoc Thinh sent a congratulatory message to the U.S. Vice president-elect Kamala Harris. The Vietnamese leaders also invited Biden and Harris to visit Vietnam.

    The Biden administration could even explore new “areas in which to deepen ties with Vietnam in the economic, political, military, and people-to-people spheres”.

    While these messages and invitations are part of customary diplomacy, strategic commentators across domains believe that US-Vietnam relations will continue as hitherto under President-elect Joe Biden’s Presidency. They argue that the US acknowledges Vietnam’s geopolitical and geostrategic heft, and the new administration will continue to give top priority to cooperation with Vietnam. The Biden administration could even explore new “areas in which to deepen ties with Vietnam in the economic, political, military, and people-to-people spheres”.

    As far as economic relations, the Vietnam-US bilateral trade has grown significantly from US$ 450 million in 1994 to US$ 75.7 billion in 2019. However, in the last few months, a thorny issue has come up. In October 2020, the U.S. Trade Representative announced an investigation of Vietnam for its large trade surplus with the US. The trade deficit widened to US$ 44.3 billion in the first nine months in 2020, as against US$ 33.96 billion in 2019. It has also been noted that some of it is because of US companies exiting China and setting up new supply chains in Vietnam. However, it is unlikely that trade deficit would have an adverse impact on bilateral relations, which would continue to remain “relatively good under Biden unless complicated by an unexpected upsurge in trade tensions.”

    As far as strategic issues, US-Vietnam defence diplomacy had received impetus under President Trump. The bilateral cooperation in security and defence matters between the two militaries has been at an all-time high. In particular, naval cooperation has been top of the agenda and USS Carl Vinson, a US aircraft carrier, made a historic port call to Da Nang in March 2018. This was significant, given that there had been no such port call by an aircraft carrier to Vietnamese ports since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. Another visit of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt followed this in March 2020, clearly showcasing growing defence cooperation between the US and Vietnam.

    Perhaps what merits attention is that Vietnam strictly adheres to ‘three-no policy’ i.e. no military alliances; no foreign troops stationed on Vietnamese soil; and no partnering with a foreign power to combat another.

    It is important to keep in mind that such port visits are a significant element of naval diplomacy by any navy. Vietnam has welcomed naval, coast guard, and marine patrol vessels from friendly countries. For instance, in 2018 a Japanese submarine and in 2019 a Canadian warship visited Vietnamese ports; likewise, many other navies have made goodwill visits. It dispatches Vietnamese military personnel and vessels for International Fleet Reviews and other similar events. Also, in 2019, Vietnam signed the Framework Participation Agreement (FPA) with the European Union (EU) which will provide it “new opportunities for Vietnam to portray itself as a cooperative and pro-active power through land and maritime missions” and “participate and contribute to EU’s Common Security and Defence (CSDP) missions and operations”

    Perhaps what merits attention is that Vietnam strictly adheres to ‘three-no policy’ i.e. no military alliances; no foreign troops stationed on Vietnamese soil; and no partnering with a foreign power to combat another. In this context, it is useful to recall the visit to Hanoi by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in October 2020. The surprise visit was labelled as an occasion to celebrate the 25th anniversary of diplomatic normalisation of bilateral relations, Pompeo’s tour was also to share with the Vietnamese leaders the US “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy and seek their support.

    There is every reason to believe that Vietnam is unlikely to gravitate towards the US, notwithstanding the fact that its relations with China have been quite rancorous particularly over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, military-naval buildup on the reclaimed features and harassment by Chinese Coast Guard ships of Vietnamese fishing vessels operating in the Paracel Islands including intentional ramming. Vietnam is unlikely to offer affirmation to the US FOIP or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), a grouping of Australia, India, Japan and US to balance against China.

    We can expect Vietnam to exercise strategic autonomy and its position of ‘not taking sides’ pivoting on its ‘three-no policy’ could prove to be an incentive for the Biden Administration to pursue an enhanced and constructive engagement with Vietnam.

    There are clear signs of contestation between the US and China, which might create Blocks (with the US or with China) that might upset the peace and stability in the region. We can expect Vietnam to exercise strategic autonomy and its position of ‘not taking sides’ pivoting on its ‘three-no policy’ could prove to be an incentive for the Biden Administration to pursue an enhanced and constructive engagement with Vietnam.

    Image Credit: Atlantic Sentinel

  • Is MGNREGA a Sustainable Employment Option for Migrants?

    Is MGNREGA a Sustainable Employment Option for Migrants?

    Covid-19 certainly has kindled a renewed focus on healthcare systems, sanitation, and most importantly, employment in the rural areas of the country. The pandemic has thrown light on the huge inadequacies and challenges of our healthcare structure that the government and the citizens had not foreseen. Millions of skilled and unskilled migrants moved across the country in droves to their hometowns in the absence of income and work and means to sustain their life. Around 30 Million (3 Crore) or 15-20% of the total urban workforce left for their hometowns, accounting for the largest ever reverse migration trend in the country, exclusive of intra-state migration. The World Bank in its report mentioned that a whopping number of 40 million internal migrants were harshly affected by the lockdown. Now that the country is just a few steps from opening up in full, concerns about workers moving back in search of work remain in the air. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), which has a mixed track record in sustaining the livelihood of people in distress by providing guaranteed employment and considerate wages might be the only way out for the worst of the worst-affected. But, will the scheme be a viable and sustainable employment option for the days and years to come? This article aims to answer the question of efficiency, significance, and sustainability of MGNREGA in rural employment in the country.

    What is MGNREGA?

    MGNREGA, the world’s largest guarantee work programme, is the legitimised pioneer of the fundamental ‘Right to Work’. The scheme does that by providing a time-bound guarantee of work for 100 days a year, with considerate fixed wages. Workers under the scheme are assigned to agriculture and related capacity building projects thus ensuring sustainable development for all, as advocated by Gandhi. The scheme has reasonable success stories to its credit, all across the country. A study by Parida (2016) at Odisha proves that MGNREGA has played an important role in the agricultural off-season by providing work to the needy, the poor, and the socially marginalised communities. In various villages in Sikkim, families under MGNREGA were more self-reliant and less dependent on government programmes for a livelihood, according to the results of an evaluation conducted by the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (2017).

    The Ministry of Finance announced Rs. 40,000 crore fund allocation to MGNREGA on the onset of the fourth phase of lockdown in May, while under the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, the government plans in creating jobs for 300 Crore persons, and the national average wages of workers also saw an increase from Rs. 182 per day per person to Rs. 202, with effect from April 1st, 2020. All of these might come off as a huge sigh of relief to the worst affected, but in many states, the scheme wage rates are lower than the minimum wages in the respective states. So, this increase in wages does not hold huge significance in reality.

    Unemployment and Work Allocation Concerns

    Reverse Migration Trends and Unemployment:      Unemployment has always been a perennial problem for a developing country like India, especially in times of crisis. The unemployment rate of the country reached an all-time high of close to 24% in April, while the rate of unemployment is expected to reach 8-8.5% in 2020-21, which may increase owing to the reverse migration trends. According to the Former Chief Statistician of India, rural unemployment is now a double-edged sword, given the impact of different migration trends. The reverse migration trends have altered the demand-supply dynamics in rural India significantly. Areas that previously had negative net migration rates are now expected to experience labour surplus, while the locations that may need workers might lack supply. The trends in reverse migration and its impact on local employment in states are visible, with Uttarakhand topping the charts in both the number of reverse migrants and the unemployment rate at around 22.3% as of September. The state is followed by Tripura at 17.4% and Bihar at 11.9%. Thus a strong correlation can be inferred between the amount of reverse migration and the unemployment rate in a given state.

    Putting together numbers of short-term and long-term vulnerable workers gives us a total of about 13 Crore (130 million) workers, who are deeply affected by the Covid-19 crisis.

    Another trend that is recognisable from literature is that migration is no longer a one-way street. Seasonal and circular migration continues to grow and take various forms (Conell et.al., 1976). Amongst these, vulnerable circular migrants are termed as the most distressed section of migrants, which include both Short-term seasonal and long-term occupationally vulnerable workers. Srivastava (2020) has estimated the number of 5.9 crore short-duration circular migrant workers in the year 2017-18. In the same study, vulnerable long-term circular migrants have been identified at 6.9 crores in the same period. Putting together numbers of short-term and long-term vulnerable workers gives us a total of about 13 Crore (130 million) workers, who are deeply affected by the Covid-19 crisis.

    Work Allocation Concerns:     Besides, The Taskforce for Eliminating Poverty constituted by Niti Aayog in the year 2015 (Occasional Paper,2016) has noted that most beneficiaries under the MGNREGS have been on an average get only 50 days of work. This shows that the scheme requires a better mechanism that recommends better targeting of the poorest of the poor and gets them guaranteed work for 100 days. Additionally, if 50-60% of the migrant workers in urban India (2018 above) return to their home destinations, then the scheme has to accommodate between 5.5 – 6.6 crore new workers, which will add 50 – 60% weight on people to be accommodated under the scheme. This exerts additional pressure on the already drying up state funds, which means catering to the huge number of migrants might not be economically sustainable for a long period.

    Wages and Work Efficiency under MGNREGA

    The wage rate in MGNREGA has been a huge concern for policymakers across India. While the recent increase in wages seemed quite positive at the onset, the wage hike is lesser than the minimum wage rate in certain states. Wage rates in the year 2019 seemed to be on the same trajectory, with the MGNREGA wage hike being lesser than the minimum wages in 33 states. Long payment delays also with meager wages add to the burden on workers under the scheme. Another important loophole in the scheme is the availability of work for such a huge number of workers seeking work under the scheme. In most cases, work is inadequate for such a huge number of workers. The standing committee report on rural development for the year 2012-13 also mentioned a significant decline in annual work completion rates (%). According to the report, work completion rates have taken a deep plunge consecutively in the years after 2011, with work completion rates of 20.25% for the year 2012, and 15.02% for the year ending 2013. Such dismal performances also throw light on the lack of productive allocation of work under the scheme. All of these certainly are results of the weakening of the act.

     CONCLUSION

     While MGNREGA fails in addressing a lot of important issues, COVID-19 certainly allows it to fit the dynamic changes in employment and work conditions. Making amendments to the act can be the only way out if the act needs to be sustainable in the long term. MGNREGA gives a rights-based framework to migrants seeking skilled and unskilled labour opportunities but lacks in giving enough benefits to the workers. Work under the scheme should be allocated efficiently, as per the project needs. While COVID-19 put a halt to a lot of existing projects, a lot of new projects are on the anvil. Catering to the needs arising on account of the pandemic including sanitation infrastructure building projects and infrastructure and rehabilitation projects can help the scheme diversify its project base, thus increasing employment opportunities to the migrants. Agriculture, the only positive contributor to the GDP of the country should be taken advantage of in the situation. A strong work evaluation setup should be made sure of, that would efficiently track work completion records thus giving opportunities for workers to complete the incomplete projects. This will yield benefits in both completion of a project and increased workdays and consequently increased wages for a worker.

    Cash-based transactions can be a game-changer in this scenario. Instead of reliance on Aadhar, the unbanked should be remunerated regularly by the means of cash.

    Need for Cash-Based Wage Transfer:      While cash crunch and plunging aggregate demand are looming over the country’s economy, MGNREGA can be used as a tool to put money in the hands of the needy. The propensity to consume of a rural worker is way higher than that of an urban employee. Cash-based transactions can be a game-changer in this scenario. Instead of reliance on Aadhar, the unbanked should be remunerated regularly by the means of cash. Bank and Post office ways of remunerating workers surely did have an impact on corruption, but irregular payments and lack of access to formal banking systems are a common testimony among the migrants. Reverse migration is also the beginning of people bringing themselves into the formal cycle of work, with their enrolment under MGNREGA. Tapping the untapped potential and better engagement and benefits to workers under the scheme will largely increase its base and efficiency. If states learn from their past mistakes and amend the working system of the act, then surely it may do wonders in rural employment in the country.

    Image Credit; The Quint

  • Comparing School Education in India and Singapore

    Comparing School Education in India and Singapore

    Introduction

    The United Nations has recognised the right to education as a basic human right, and in most countries, education is compulsory up to a certain age. In India education is primarily provides education in India by private schools, which run independently of the government, and public schools administered and funded by the government at three levels; central, state and local. Under the Indian Constitution, education is a fundamental right to children aged 6 to 14, however, there is no law in place that makes education compulsory. India has a literacy rate of 74.04%, and according to the world bank, Indian schools face challenges in primary enrollment, quality of teachers and application-based learning. Comparatively, Singapore has a literacy rate of 98.3% where education is primarily in the public sector and is fully controlled by the government. Under the Laws of Singapore, every child needs to complete at least 6 years of education, not doing so is a punishable offence. Though the education system in Singapore can be competitive, it ensures every child is well rounded and balanced and can apply their learnings critically. Through this paper, I will explore the fundamental difference between the education system in India and Singapore.

    Singapore has evolved from a third world into a first world country within 10 years, and one of the main attributes to this rapid growth has been education. The Singapore education system is one of the most advanced systems in the world.

    Importance of Education in Development

    Singapore has evolved from a third world into a first world country within 10 years, and one of the main attributes to this rapid growth has been education. The Singapore education system is one of the most advanced systems in the world. The country consistently ranks at the top of the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), a triennial test of 15-year-olds in dozens of countries, in the main three categories of maths, reading and science. Singapore also has very strict penalties for breaking the law. According to the Compulsory Education Act of 2000, all Singaporean students must attend 6 years of compulsory education, and it imposes a $5000 fine per year for failure to do so. According to the law, all local Singaporean students must attend schools run by the government to maintain equal education opportunities for all. Private schools in Singapore are predominantly for foreign students, while government schools are for the citizens, this incentivises the government to invest in public schools, which improves the overall quality of education.

    According to the Compulsory Education Act of 2000, all Singaporean students must attend 6 years of compulsory education, and it imposes a $5000 fine per year for failure to do so.

    India has a child labour rate of 3.9%, and yet there is no law in place that makes education compulsory. The Indian parliament passed the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act in 2009 (9 years after Singapore), wherein it’s a constitutional right for all children to attend school from ages 6 to 14, however, is not a law with penalties if not complied to. The lack of enforcement of education is one of the principal reasons India’s literacy rate, especially among women (65.5%), is so low. Local students can attend either public or private schools, however, government schools are usually considered predominantly for marginalized sections of the community. Hence, there is a lack of funding for public schools, which lacks in both quantity and quality. In 2018/19 India spent roughly 2% of its total GDP on education, which was US $72 billion, from a GDP of US $2.7 trillion, additionally one must take into consideration the high levels of corruption experienced in India. Comparatively, Singapore spent US $13 billion, which was 3.2% of its total GDP of US $372 billion, mostly spent on infrastructure development and updating the curriculum.

     

    Teachers: Quality, Training, Accountability, and Creativity

    The process of hiring teachers varies drastically in the two countries. Singapore has many regulations to hire teachers, for example, to become a primary school teacher one needs to be a graduate, with additional special teaching training given by the government. Subsequently, the government monitors their performances closely and continuously. The government also ensures that the teacher-student ratio is better than 1:20, to provide customised care and attention to each student. Teachers have strict rules on behaviour and etiquette, from the language they use to the style of teaching they adopt, the government monitors all teacher-student interactions. It also provides regular training to ensure they learn new skills to share with their students. A study by the Singapore Management University claims that the quality of teaching and teacher’s pay has a direct correlation. Thus, school teachers in Singapore are well paid where the average annual salary of a teacher is anywhere between US $31,539  to US $56,543. According to Imperial college, paying teachers more means more educated and talented people would want to become teachers, which improves the quality of education.

    According to the Indian NGO, Child’s Rights and You (CRY), the checks and surveys by the government to monitor the quality of education are very irregular, and teachers rarely face any consequences.

     India has no special requirements for becoming a government school teacher apart from having a graduate degree. The average teacher to student ratio in Indian government schools is 1:40, which is significantly higher than the recommended ratio suggested by the UN. According to the UN, the maximum teacher to pupil ratio should be around 1:30, to give each child the care and attention they need. According to the Indian NGO, Child’s Rights and You (CRY), the checks and surveys by the government to monitor the quality of education are very irregular, and teachers rarely face any consequences. The cases of child abuse by teachers i.e. hitting or sexual assault are reducing but the numbers are still quite high, because of lack of teacher accountability. This proves to be a major setback for government schools, since one of the principal reasons families do not send their kids to public schools is the fear of child abuse. Last, the average yearly salary of a teacher is anywhere between US $5,400 to US $7440, which is considerably low and can lead to teachers being frustrated and uninterested in the job. According to ‘The Hindu’, teachers being underpaid is one of the leading factors to the lack of quality in public education in India. Through this, it is clear why Singapore has a more advanced education system, not only is it well funded but also well monitored, the government ensures quality education for each child by investing in good teachers.

    Curriculum and Pedagogy

    According to Child physiology research by the University of California, which is more important than the curriculum itself, is the methods of teaching and the spirit in which the teaching is given. Singapore has moulded its curriculum to allow students to explore their interests through research-based projects and activities, rather than a strict textbook method of teaching. According to the Psychology department in UCL, project and research-based learning stimulates cognitive skills and boosts creativity and the ability for children to innovate, which is a much more effective way of education rather than traditional textbook-based learning. The government invests largely in labs and other technology to enable application-based learning to develop analytical skills in students, which is then paired with classroom theory-based learning. Singapore achieves application-based learning firstly through a flexible yet focused curriculum, wherein students may choose matters that interest them and are given a range of options on how they want to be tested. Second, through Pedagogy, which is most commonly understood as the approach to teaching, and to the theory and practice of learning, and how this process influences, and is influenced by the social, political and psychological development of learners. Examples would be where students and teachers produce work and learning together. The teacher becomes more of a mentor or coach helping students achieve the learning goal. Students also work together and use each other’s skills and expertise to accomplish a set of learning tasks. This enables students to feel like they are more involved in their education, which makes them more interested and invested in what they are learning and hence is one of the most effective methods of education. Lastly, by prioritising quality over quantity, which means that education is pedagogically and developmentally sound and educates the student in becoming an active and productive member of society. Quality education is not one that is measured purely by a test score or by how many words per minute a 5-year-old can read, but rather how many words it can understand. It involves critical thinking, learning to work with others independently and learning to face the realities of life applying the knowledge learnt in their academic life. Singapore does not require its students to take many subjects and activities, but rather focuses on a high standard of teaching and engagement, thus creating a more productive society.

    The fundamental difference between the Singaporean and Indian education system is creativity, while the creativity of children is barely given any importance in the Indian education system, Singapore cultivates the creative ability of its students.

    However, India has a system more focused on theory-based learning, rather than using the practical application. According to the Center for Child Research Singapore, the education system in India does not prepare most young adults for employability because of the lack of ability to critically think and solve unfamiliar problems. The system gives a disproportionate amount of importance to rote learning rather than creativity. The Indian education system hasn’t been updated in several years and thus seems extremely backward. The fundamental difference between the Singaporean and Indian education system is creativity, while the creativity of children is barely given any importance in the Indian education system, Singapore cultivates the creative ability of its students. According to former Singaporean Prime minister, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore could transition from the third world to a first world country within 10 years because of creativity. This creativity shows in new businesses, in groundbreaking policies, and even in city planning. Singapore is constantly innovating and adapting to better their standards of living, and research-based learning is extremely essential to produce an innovative community. The Indian system does not pay adequate attention to pedagogy, since there is a very rigid curriculum set in place with little room for students to mould according to their interests. Lastly, there is a lack of investment for technology-based learning which can help improve application and research-based teaching. For example, Singapore ensures laptops are available in all classrooms for research, they also use a cloud computing system with all the assignments and textbooks available for students to access even if they are unable to attend school.

    Education for Children with Special Needs

    Singapore has also invested in a speech to text option for blind students and ones who have any learning disabilities such as ADHD. Through these investments, every student has an equal opportunity to learn.

    Students with special needs often need more care and attention than the average student. Singapore ensures every school has a set of teachers specially trained to assist children with learning disabilities. However, Singapore still does not have enough public schools specialised for special needs students. According to the World Bank, 71% of children with autism still attend mainstream schools. Research has shown that mainstream schools are frequently neither fully educated nor equipped to deal with the needs of an autistic child and give them the support. There are over 2,500 schools for children with special needs in India some are run or supported by the government, while many are run by registered NGOs or private institutions. However, there are only 20 special needs schools in Singapore which offer different programmes that cater to distinct disability groups of children. However, Singapore has increased investment in building more schools and opportunities in the workplace for people with special needs or any learning disabilities.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, one can argue that it is unfair to compare a city (Singapore) to a country like India, since Singapore is way smaller and has a higher GDP per capita. However, the comparison is mainly based on the methods of education. Through this paper, we understood the difference in teaching methods, which India could easily adopt by updating the curriculum. By updating the Indian system to enable kids to be more creative and research-oriented, India will produce generations of critical thinking and productive workforce that would eventually boost the Indian economy and the nation.

    Feature Image Credit: akshayapatrafoundation from pixabay
    Image Credit: A Singapore classroom  www.todayonline.com

  • International Institutions in post-Covid Era

    International Institutions in post-Covid Era

    Pandemic exposes inadequacies in the 21st century world

    At the Munich Security Conference 2020, the Indian External Affairs Minister stated that multilateralism has weakened, and attributed it to the inadequacy of international institutions, established seventy-five years ago, to cope with the challenges of 21st century. This was just before the coronavirus became a global pandemic. Today, among other aspects of society that are challenged by the pandemic, its impact on the world has exposed the inability of international organizations to develop a globally cooperative strategy. The September edition of the UNSC meeting held regarding the coronavirus pandemic saw the United States, China, and Russia fight bitterly over responsibility and responsiveness to the pandemic. Instead of building constructive solutions to face the challenge each country focused on accusing others. Similarly, although the Covid-19 global response pledging event secured 7.4 billion euros, their origins (whether new or retargeting of approved grants), method of fund application, proposed call for global research sharing platforms are either ambiguous or not yet set up. Hence, although international organizations have promoted dialogue, the jury is still out on their efforts towards alleviating the crisis or cushioning its impact. The pandemic thus leads to questions about their effectiveness and what post-covid international institutions might look like.

    Given the manner in which various nation-states represent, contribute to, and run international organizations it is definitive that the nature of international institutions is susceptible to change.

    Institutionalism and International Organisations

    International Organisations such as the United Nations and its predecessor the League of Nations mark the variety of multilateralism brought to life based on the theory of institutionalism. Institutionalism originated from the thought that if humans are fundamentally good but act otherwise it is because of anarchy in the international system, and through institutions fostering international cooperation anarchy can be countered to promote the fundamental good in human nature. The final goal of institutionalism stood to promote supranational organizations. However, there have been drawbacks in bringing practicality to this theory. These institutions are built on belief (an individual external factor to the institution itself brought by participants) and power in international institutions is extended when states surrender part of their sovereignty. The changes and differences in individual beliefs cause significant changes in institutions in both the way they operate and the consequences of their operations. Given the manner in which various nation-states represent, contribute to, and run international organizations it is definitive that the nature of international institutions is susceptible to change. Hence, better international coordination and responses to the past crisis such as the 2008 financial crisis, controlling the Ebola breakout in West Africa were also a result of the leftist individual beliefs of participants. However, with global politics inclining towards the right, with waves of hyper-nationalism sweeping across nations, efforts towards multilateralism have taken a back seat. Stephen Walt maintained that the pandemic will reinforce nationalism as the world retreats from hyper-globalization to reduce future vulnerabilities and will create a world that is ‘less open, less prosperous, and less free’. The pandemic has put the world on a trajectory towards the right with politicians becoming more authoritative, and thus multilateralism will see significant changes in the post-covid era.

    Rise of narrow Nationalism and Right Wing Politics

    Despite the rise of right-wing politics globally, the benefits of multilateralism cannot be foregone. Multilateralism in international institutions in past crises followed a model wherein the United States took the lead across various organizations and coordinated the world towards a united response. Since such leadership has been replaced with great power politics, multilateralism has taken an operational role instead of a supervisory role. The main difference between the two roles is that the latter had better potential to progress as a supranational organization while the former traverses as a platform offering supporting services to different countries. Examples of this are efforts led by NATO to use their airlifting capabilities to move vital medical equipment and food supplies, and WHO’s initiative to share guidelines and important research to countries who then took individual decisions. In the current trajectory, these changes in institutional consequences can lead towards three possibilities in the future of multilateralism:

    At the risk of sounding highly pessimistic, the institutional belief in multilateralism is likely to see a steep decline and sovereignty surrendered to international organizations will erode. The role of the UN and its organs may change focus on global data collection, analysis, and politically motivated discussions from the current (weakening) narrative of progress, development, conflict prevention, and resolution.

    • As Robert Kaplan argues, Coronavirus has become the watershed movement segregating the upcoming era as Globalisation 2.0 with the rise of autocracies, social and class divides, and new emerging global divisions. This image of globalization 2.0 can be used to reflect on what the next era of multilateralism will be. In the continuing trajectory with no clear international leadership, international institutions would reduce to becoming a platform of dialogue in great power politics with the initiative and effectiveness of resolutions substantially watered down. At the risk of sounding highly pessimistic, the institutional belief in multilateralism is likely to see a steep decline and sovereignty surrendered to international organizations will erode. The role of the UN and its organs may change focus on global data collection, analysis, and politically motivated discussions from the current (weakening) narrative of progress, development, conflict prevention, and resolution. For instance, the pandemic-induced embargo on the movement of people would in turn catalyse the degeneration of organs such as the UNHCR as the dialogue focuses on data collection and blame allocation instead of refugee crisis management. The international political narrative will shift from globalism to regionalism for effective conflict resolution.

     

    • As US-China rivalry hampers effective policymaking, relatively smaller powers will lead the narrative in these institutions. The foundations for this possibility are already evident. The United Kingdom and other European countries have been increasingly calling for global summits to promote multilateralism. Their efforts can be theorized to be an enmeshment strategy similar to that used by small states in ASEAN. The objective of this strategy is to alleviate the high risks of major powers directly competing by creating interdependence (if not directly between the great powers) among the various actors in the system through increased multilateral participation to an extent that great powers are tied down in this system and their interests are intertwined such that conflict would become costly. Thus smaller powers prevent the complete breakdown of international organizations by continuing to promote dialogue and ensure the persistence of multilateralism, albeit weaker, but prevent the division into two great-power blocs as with the first scenario. This approach where smaller states remain neutral to great power influences would in turn result in the latter’s effort to win over small states characterized by the exploitation of the cold war by small states. Although the US has so far managed to step away from this, with the oncoming elections it is likely that a change in administration would enable the enmeshment strategy to prevent an extreme global division.

     

    • Taking an optimistic view, the pandemic may catalyse the trajectory towards Ikenberry’s Multilateralism 3.0 where power in the institutions is more reflective of present-day world powers. Given the shift in American foreign policy and lack of initiative, the pandemic could become an important shaper for other Asian powers to get higher representation to balance China’s rise. Although this demonstrates an idealistic situation far from the rightist trajectory, Ikenberry concedes to the fact that in the short-run countries will be nationalistic but in the long run, democracies will break out from the authoritarian, nationalistic regimes to promote a pragmatic and protective internationalism. Ikenberry makes this interpretation based on the enlightenment world leaders had following the destruction and suffering from the world wars. Hence, the pandemic marks the starting point for the butterfly effect which will lead to wartime-like geopolitics, followed by enlightenment to build stronger international institutions with representations reflective of the new world order and better capable of dealing with issues the current institutions struggle to resolve.

    Conclusion

    Although international cooperation would be the sensible means to navigate through the pandemic and other crisis induced by the pandemic, due to factors external to the institution, such as domestically controlled participant change – multilateralism will see considerable weakening. Among the three possibilities identified for the future of international institutions, only time can tell which path the world will take. However, a combination of the second possibility in the short run progressing to the third over the long run is the most optimistic option to work upon for a better pathway to navigate through this crisis.

    Image: Pixabay

  • Vietnam: Economic Prospects in Post Second Wave Covid-19

    Vietnam: Economic Prospects in Post Second Wave Covid-19

    The global community is into the ninth month of the COVID-19 pandemic and international efforts to develop a vaccine are at advanced stages.  Meanwhile in Russia over 250 Moscow residents received a dose of Sputnik V[i] and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has announced that the vaccine will be ready by November this year.[ii]Similarly, many American, British, European, and Indian companies are developing the vaccine which is at different levels of trials.  While the above progress is very encouraging, the global COVID-19 infections continue to rise and as on 13 October, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 were 37,601,848 people including 1,077,799 deaths.[iii] The top four countries with the highest infections were the US, India, Brazil and Russia.

    Vietnam’s COVID response since 23 January 2020, when the first case was detected, has been noteworthy. It successfully contained the spread of the virus by instituting local quarantine measures in early stages, declaring a state of emergency in February, and banning flights to and from China. For the next two months, Vietnam maintained strict COVID related measures including national lockdown and it was only in late April that some restrictions were removed in localities if they had contained the virus; but non-essential public services remained suspended. The opening up continued slowly with the resumption of flights to select destinations and cross-border travel restrictions were lifted. Meanwhile, Vietnam registered to buy a Russian Covid-19 vaccine as also developing vaccine on its own.

    In August, the second largest COVID-19 outbreak (after Danang) was reported in Quang Nam Province. The ‘second wave’ has now been successfully controlled.

    However, in July, Danang, a tourist hotspot, reported several new cases and a massive evacuation of nearly 80,000 tourists was undertaken. In August, the second largest COVID-19 outbreak (after Danang) was reported in Quang Nam Province. The ‘second wave’ has now been successfully controlled. As of 15 September, in Vietnam (total population 95,540,000) there were 1063 cases; 35 deaths; 261,004 tests had been conducted, and 11cases per million was recorded.[iv]

    Vietnam’s economic outlook in the ‘post-COVID Second Wave’ is a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. There are at least four issues which merit attention. First, the Vietnamese economy, like any other global economies, suffered due to the pandemic. The 2020 first-half growth was about 1.8% compared with 7% in 2019 (year-on-year), but the Vietnamese economy has shown enormous resilience when compared with major global economies who have recorded negative growth. This is due to the proficient handling of the pandemic and the country is now on a quick and steady recovery path. The HSBC has revised Vietnam’s 2020 growth forecast from 1.6% to 3.0%.[v]

    It is also important to mention that the Vietnamese government has offered attractive incentives to multinational investors to help them “move up the value chain” and build supply chains in the country.

    Second, there are clear signs that Vietnam continues to be an attractive destination for foreign investments. This trend is not only due to global conglomerates moving out of China and seeking new destinations with attractive options for setting up of their businesses, but Vietnamese handing of the pandemic has provided them enormous business confidence in the country. According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, total foreign investment in the first half was worth US$18.47 billion.[vi] Japanese (Panasonic), South Korean (LG Electronics), US (Foxconn; Apple) and the European (Heineken) companies moved to Vietnam. It is also important to mention that the Vietnamese government has offered attractive incentives to multinational investors to help them “move up the value chain” and build supply chains in the country.

    Third, is about renewable energy. Vietnam’s current energy generation mix is skewed towards coal (18,516 MW) and hydrocarbons (8,978 MW). Notwithstanding the COVID-19, the country’s average electricity consumption per day during the first few months of 2020 was 615 million KWh, an increase of 7.5 per cent compared with 2019.[vii] It is estimated that “Vietnam’s energy demand will increase by over 10 per cent by the end of 2020, followed by an eight per cent growth per year in 2021 to 2030.” The “government wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by eight per cent by 2030” for which investments in renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind would have to be made,

    Fourth, is about immersion in Industry 4.0 technologies. There are now clear trends of widespread digital transformation across the globe and is impacting every aspect of the industry from commercial operations, technology management, use in fintech to support banking and financial services, new business models through analytics, and human resource management.  These technologies can potentially boost productivity and improve Vietnam’s GDP. For that innovative national policies for growth are needed. Also, the human resource would require ‘up-skilling, reskilling and retooling’ to embrace these technologies.  The industry leaders too have to recognize the importance of educating themselves and using new technologies as also adopting innovative models for their operations.

    Vietnam should build upon its successes of handling the COVID-19 pandemic and ‘build back better’ by offering long-term stimulus for investments and accord high priority to zero-carbon technologies to spur inclusive and resilient growth.

    Finally, Vietnam should build upon its successes of handling the COVID-19 pandemic and ‘build back better’ by offering long-term stimulus for investments and accord high priority to zero-carbon technologies to spur inclusive and resilient growth. It must adopt strategies for investments in technologies, products and services as also create new jobs tailored for Industry 4.0.

     

    Notes

    [i] “Russia Covid-19 vaccine: Over 250 people in Moscow get inoculated, says report”, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/russia-covid-19-vaccine-over-250-people-in-moscow-get-inoculated-says-report-11600085464168.html  (accessed 16 September 2020).
    [ii] “China coronavirus vaccine may be ready for public in November: Official”, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-coronavirus-vaccine-may-be-ready-for-public-in-november-official/story-1DzVCBrdOwleJXxuw0wvyI.html  (accessed 16 September 2020).
    [iii] “WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard”, https://covid19.who.int/?gclid=CjwKCAjwzIH7BRAbEiwAoDxxTlG5T6XZYiHVHBesW5cmAa9DKUytaVgH01haDH10TpmFA3OP-2s_phoCk9sQAvD_BwE  (accessed 16 September 2020).
    [iv] “Southeast Asia Covid-19 Tracker”, https://www.csis.org/programs/southeast-asia-program/southeast-asia-covid-19-tracker-0#National%20Responses  (accessed 16 September 2020).
    [v] “Vietnam’s positive growth in Q2 defies market expectations: HSBC”, http://hanoitimes.vn/vietnam-positive-growth-in-q2-defies-market-expectations-hsbc-313035.html  (accessed 16 September 2020).
    [vi] “Vietnam expects imminent new wave of foreign investment”, https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30392781?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral  (accessed 15 September 2020).
    [vii] “Assessing Vietnam’s Economic Prospects for Foreign Investors After COVID-19”, https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/assessing-vietnams-economic-prospects-foreign-investors-after-covid-19.html/  (accessed 15 September 2020).

    Image: Ho chi-min City

  • UAE-Israel Deal: An Analysis of its Regional Impact

    UAE-Israel Deal: An Analysis of its Regional Impact

    Introduction

    The recently brokered Abraham Accords Peace Agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel marks the beginning of the potential shift in West Asia’s existing power relations. Driven by their security interests, and in an attempt to amplify their power projections in the region, the two countries have come together, in what is being seen, as an opposition to the Iranian axis of influence. Although the normalization of relations with Israel marks a huge setback for the possibility of a Palestinian Statehood, several Arab countries are expected to jump on the bandwagon, with Bahrain having already concluded a treaty after UAE. This article highlights the eclectic mix of reactions from various players in West Asia and the potential opportunities and setbacks it brings with itself.

    Palestine

     Several countries held strongly pro-Palestine policies during the Cold War and decolonization period. However, in the last few decades, many have established ties with Israel; Egypt in 1979, and Jordan in1994 and now UAE and Bahrain in 2020. That being said, majority of the Arab and Gulf countries still officially do not recognize Israel. The United Arab Emirates announced its decision to normalize relations with Israel on 12th August 2020. There are many reasons why UAE and Bahrain decided to establish diplomatic relations with Israel; according to some analysts it is to counter Iran’s influence in the region, but for some it is also to establish trade and business contacts.

    However, do these developments indicate that countries in the Arab world are moving gradually into accepting Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands as ‘fait accompli’? A significant development that needs to be recognised is the fact that many West Asian countries no longer demand the return of Palestinian lands as a precondition to normalizing ties with Israel.

    The Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have strongly criticised the deal and see it as betrayal of their rights and cause by the international community.

    It is long-known that Israel will not return to pre-1967 boundaries; in May 2020 Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated his plan to annex the West Bank. He has, however, postponed the implementation of his decision, probably indefinitely, in the interests of the deal that is likely to benefit Israel greatly.

    The Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have strongly criticised the deal and see it as betrayal of their rights and cause by the international community.  Banners  displaying “Treason” and “No to normalization with the occupier’ have come up across the region.  The Palestinian Authority, in very obvious response, have rejected the deals. These accords, as they rightly fear, affect the future of Palestinian sovereignty and legitimize Israel’s occupation.

    Turkey  

     President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees himself as the champion of Muslims ever since he came to power in 2002. Under Erdogan, Turkey has pursued a clear pro-Palestinian stance. Turkey has indeed provided aid to Palestine at various times, including during COVID-19. It has criticized Trump’s peace plan for the Israel-Palestine conflict, for ignoring Palestinians’ legitimate rights. Not surprisingly, Turkey is clearly unhappy with UAE’s and Bahrain’s steps to normalize ties with Israel. Turkey has threatened with the option of halting diplomatic relations with UAE over the deal.

    However, for Palestinians Turkey’s statements ring hypocritical and hallow. Turkey was one of the earliest and the first Muslim majority state to recognize Israel in 1949. Turkey and Israel have a long history of intelligence cooperation. Even in the current situation, Turkey is focused more on dealing with the UAE on this issue, rather than Israel. Nevertheless, speaking for Palestinian rights in the international forum is equally important. In that respect, Turkey’s voice in support of the Palestinian cause is an important one.

    Saudi Arabia

     Saudi Arabia, long seen as the champion of Islamic nations, particularly in view of the fact that it is home to the two holiest shrines of Islam. Therefore, this peace agreement is a shock to the conservatives who form the majority in the Kingdom. This move by the UAE is seen as going along with the Jewish regime that denies the rights of the Palestinian Muslims. However, the Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the deal could be seen as positive, but his country will not normalize relations until peace is signed with the Palestinians,  within the framework of the Arab Peace Initiative.  Saudi Arabia’s track record of its unwavering support to the Palestinian cause from the days of the Yom Kippur war, also known as Ramadan War, makes the nation’s stance on the ‘Abraham Accords’ more influential than any other Gulf country. The advocacy for Palestinian state runs deep in the Saudi people. As a result, Saudi leadership’s slightest inclination towards the agreement could spark unrest among its citizens.

    The current regime under the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who is a very capable leader compared to his predecessors because of his broader outlook to mend diplomatic ties with the regional enemies, yields an element of uncertainty as he may be inclined towards the accord. The political and ideological differences between the people of Saudi and their leader might spark cynicism towards the government; hence, support for the accord is implausible in the short term.

    Israel, which shares the Red Sea coastline with the country and is a major player in technology innovations in the region, makes it an ideal ally for the Kingdom.

    The idea, however, is not wholly inconceivable because of MBS’s Vision 2030. Upon ascending the throne, the Crown Prince has constructed an elaborate plan to detach the Kingdom’s dependence on its natural resources and focus on bringing in diverse investments into the country. One of the main plans is to develop the Red Sea Coastline by exploiting its tourism prospects by building a smart city. Israel, which shares the Red Sea coastline with the country and is a major player in technology innovations in the region, makes it an ideal ally for the Kingdom. One of the other factors that could generate a coalition between Saudi Arabia and Israel is their common enemy, Iran.

    If MBS does accept the accord, it may not come as a surprise, but that does not warrant the fact that there is a high possibility of the decision shocking many conservative and religious establishments.  In retrospect, that could give birth to the “new” Saudi Arabia that the crown prince has promised to build.

    Qatar

    Qatar, which is considered the most developed state in the Gulf region, is in the middle of a diplomatic standoff with the regional players. Its dispute with the two major states, Saudi Arabia and UAE, has made the state go out of its way to establish diplomatic ties with parties that are not particularly approved by the GCC. The state has not given any official statement on the accord, but it’s closeness with Iran may be taken as an unofficial veto to the accord in itself. Qatar’s close relationship with the US and Iran has been a subject of debate ever since the Gulf crisis, but the state has somehow managed not to let the relationship cut across each other. This particular agreement with Israel orchestrated by the Trump government could pressure Qatar to push and resolve its issues with the UAE.

    Like any other Arab country, Qatar has advocated for the Palestinian state. It took it a little further by investing in the Gaza Strip, funding welfare payments to the coastal territory. One can suspect that the Emirati’s decision to form a coalition with the Israeli state will only deepen the ties between Qatar and Palestine.

    Though the Qatar government has been silent about the accord, Doha based news media, Al Jazeera has not shied away from raising concerns regarding the agreement. It even went to the extent of calling the accord ‘PR stunt’ initiated by the UAE. It’s support to Palestine and capitalisation of the hashtag ‘normalization as betrayal’ have received a lot of criticism from those countries that support the agreement. Qatar has always been hostile to Israel’s treatment towards the Palestinian state but has managed to have practical relations with Israel.

    Iran  

    As the world witnesses the coming together of the United Arab Emirates and Israel, two of the former adversaries, it comes as no surprise that Iran has been aggressively lashing out against the deal. With Iran still reeling under the economic pressure of the US sanctions, President Rouhani has called the deal a ‘betrayal’, aimed at satisfying the United States at a time when President Trump prepares himself to run in the national election in November. The leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah has also condemned the deal on similar grounds. Iran’s disapproval stems from two main factors – first, from its support for the Palestinian statehood; and second, more realistically, due to the increasing influence of Israel-United States nexus in the region and consequently its declining axis of influence. Iran’s insecurity is speculated to have stemmed from the confluence of actors that oppose the Islamic Republic’s attempts to establish its hegemony in the region. The confluence opens up the possibility of shifting the regional balance of power in favour of Israel, and Saudi Arabia, under the shadow of the United States. While Saudi Arabia and Israel do not yet have an official diplomatic relationship, various reports suggesting backdoor diplomacy between the two countries have surfaced over the years. The common factor bringing the two countries together has most often been assumed as the perceived threat from Iran.

    Iran and UAE, on the other hand, while maintaining a meaningful trade relationship, continue to have persistent sources of bilateral tension.

    On the other hand, while Iran and Israel have often been engaged in rhetoric of bellicose jingoism towards one another, it is essential to note that both the countries maintained a friendly relationship before the Iranian revolution of 1979, with Iran being the second Muslim country recognizing the state of Israel.

    Iran and UAE, on the other hand, while maintaining a meaningful trade relationship, continue to have persistent sources of bilateral tension, one of which is the unresolved territorial dispute over the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, which lie near the critical Strait of Hormuz, providing access to key shipping lanes. Despite UAE’s historical claims over their sovereignty, the islands that were forcefully occupied by Iran continue to be a strain in the relationship between the two countries. A second irritant is a growing relationship between UAE and the United States, with the former becoming one of the largest importers of US weapons and providing the US with military bases and intelligence on Iran. Worried about the growing Iranian aggression, the country has maintained a strong security relationship with the United States and has often supported the UNSC resolutions to bar sensitive materials and technology to Iran.

    Yemen

    The conflict in Yemen that began to unravel with the spread of Arab Spring in 2011 has resulted in an unprecedented loss of civilian lives across the country, making Yemen one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The Israel-UAE deal, which reflects the beginning of normalization of ties between Arab countries and Israel, cannot be seen in isolation from the region’s larger volatile landscape. The Peace Treaty, as it is being termed, brings with itself a plethora of threats that seek to shift the existing power relations, without aiming at the cessation of violence. UAE’s increasing outreach must be looked at in the context of its increasingly interventionist policies, especially in Yemen. The deal may ultimately lead to more interference and militarization in Yemen, prolonging the prospects for conflict resolution, and sustaining hostile conditions.

    Varied responses to the deal can be seen with the Yemeni government, and the Houthis, an armed group championing Yemen’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority, coming out in opposition to the deal in a bid to continue their support for Palestine. On the other hand, it comes as no surprise that members of the Southern Transitional Council (southern separatists), which gets its support from the UAE, have applauded the treaty to build cooperation between UAE and Israel.

    Interest and interference in Yemen are of tremendous strategic significance to both Israel and UAE.

    Interest and interference in Yemen are of tremendous strategic significance to both Israel and UAE. In a show of its strengthening military projection, UAE seized control of the Yemeni island of Socotra, located in the Indian Ocean,allegedly allowing Israel to establish its presence in the region. The archipelago sits at a crucial strategic position en-route to Bab el-Mandeb, providing access to key shipping lanes.

    On the other hand, while there exists no diplomatic relationship between Yemen and Israel, the latter has often been seen intervening in the ongoing conflict in Yemen, “under the pretext of defending its interests in the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab-El-Mandeb”. With a military base already constructed at Emba Soira in Eritrea, Israel continues to increase its strategic presence across the Strait. Further, as speculations about the possible Houthi-Iran cooperation spread across the region, Israel’s surveillance centres continue to monitor the armed group’s actions and other actors in Yemen.

    Conclusion

    Palestine is a very sensitive and rousing issue for most of the citizens in West Asia. It is a shared memory of betrayal and expulsion; indeed, many politicians in West Asia use Palestine as an element in their speech and citizens also use it during slogans referring to Palestine protests.

    That being said, these deals are coming at a time when Israel is increasing its hawkish behaviour towards the Palestinians. Once the annexation happens, one cannot help but wonder how it could change the landscape of West Asia. Thus far, the progress made is the mild indication of some major players in the region favouring the accord.  Analysts suspect that the support for the accord will gain momentum in the long-term side-tracking religious, cultural and social identities to maintain diplomatic relations for economic growth.  If all countries, therefore, become friendly with Israel, will the annexation only receive loud threats with no actions?

    This study is put together by Dharika Athray, Rupal Anand, and Vrinda Aiyaswamy. All of them are Research Interns at TPF.