The Peninsula Foundation

Category: South Asia

  • Effect of Neo-Liberal Globalisation on Women in Garment Industries: A Third World Perspective

    Effect of Neo-Liberal Globalisation on Women in Garment Industries: A Third World Perspective

    Abstract

    Globalisation is a phenomenon that has brought about an effective change in the nature of the economy of the world nations. An inevitable result of this has been industrialisation, from heavy industries like iron and steel to software industries that house recent developments like artificial intelligence. Garment Industries have been a part of this industrial surge and have significantly contributed to the country’s economic growth, involving significant exports. At the heart of this unprecedented growth, an often unsaid and silenced issue remains the labour and lives of millions of women. Women, especially in the so-called third-world countries like Bangladesh,  Cambodia, and India, constitute more than 50% of the labour force in the garment sector. However,  the gender inequality that persists within these industries exists in the form of a lack of safety standards, wage disparity, stringent maternity benefits and improper compensation packages. World organisations like the International Labour Organisation (ILO) have developed projects to ensure decent working conditions. Still, the resultant effect has been scant due to the lack of gendered understanding of the issues. This research aims to illuminate the consequences of organisational patriarchy in comprehending the issues faced by women in the garment sector and subsequent policy framing. The study is based on the assumption that the inclusion of women andan opportunity to voice their concerns is absent. Therefore, there is a need for a gendered lens in framing policies, their implementation and further monitoring. Thus, this understanding will not only enhance the awareness of the working conditions of women in the garment industry but also be an eye-opener concerning the effect of global policies on the female labour force.

    Keywords: Female labour, Globalisation, Gender inequality

     

    Introduction

    The second five-year plan (1956-1961) in India had rapid industrialisation as one of its focuses and followed the Mahalanobis model of production of capital goods. This saw capitalism take the

    reins of development, which later consolidated with globalisation and took the world economy by storm, making possible the impossible, i.e., connecting the global markets. The transnational phenomenon led to the import of frontier technologies, which are highly capital-intensive (Indira  Hirway, 2012). The consequent effect was an improvement in technology and an increase in productivity accompanied by a decrease in employment intensity. This reduction affected the often underrepresented and discriminated group – women. Women’s growth was curtailed by ensuring that patriarchy was perpetuated in the organisational setup as well. The women in the lower strata of the industrial workforce faced the wrath of wage disparity, and the women in the higher echelons had a glass ceiling that prevented them from occupying managerial positions. They also had to endure the double burden of work and household chores, affecting the female labour force participation rate. Garment industries in developing countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have witnessed large-scale employment of women as formal and informal labour to fulfil the needs of international buyers. In this paper, based on secondary research, I would like to traverse the historical aspects that led to globalisation, subsequent policies and the consequential effect it had on women, primarily focusing on export garment industries, which house the highest percentage of employed women.

    Industrialisation and women 

    The post-independence era in India, from 1947 onwards, witnessed industrial growth. The employment of labour also saw a shift from traditional agriculture. “Gender was the primary axis along  which industrial labour and the labour force were constituted.” Very few women worked in factories, and the support and protection they received were also poor compared to men. The policies that catered to labour protection, like the Factories Act (1948),  The Minimum Wages Act (1948) and The Employees’ State Insurance Act (1948) that paraded gender neutrality were gender blind. The ensuing period of globalisation, which questioned the conservative market nature, also brought about changes in the perception of women’s labour. With the world markets creating an arena for exports, the need for developing countries like India to keep up with the race became necessary, and the viable solution was to employ women from the lower strata of the society, mostly Dalits, in the name of empowering them. They were bait in the corporate hawk culture. The governments also failed to visualise the consequences of liberal markets and the capitalists donning the crown.

    As a part of the capitalist world, women were subject to both economic and emotional labour, which affected the female labour force participation rate, and the percentage of women in the informal sector became higher than women in the formal sector. However, there have been a lot of studies on the women employed in the informal sector, and there have also been time-use surveys conducted in this regard. Women’s labour in the formal sector has been consistently neglected due to the common belief that they enjoy the protection of an organised system. This may hold true to some extent, but in the case of garment or textile industries, which are a focus here, women are also the most penalised according to the reports by the International Labour  Organisation (ILO).

    Ministry of Labour and Employment, India – Statistics on Women Labour

    According to the information provided by the Office of Registrar General & Census Commissioner of India in the 2011 Census, the total number of female workers in India is 149.8 million, of which  121.8 and 28.0 million are from rural and urban areas, respectively. Out of the total 149.8 million female workers, 35.9 million females work as cultivators and another 61.5 million as agricultural labourers. Of the remaining female workers, 8.5 million remain in households, and 43.7 million are classified as other workers.

     

    As per Census 2011, the work participation rate for women is 25.51 per cent compared to 25.63  per cent in 2001. The female labour participation rate decreased marginally in 2011 but has seen an improvement from 22.27 per cent in 1991 and 19.67 per cent in 1981. The work participation rate for women in rural areas is 30.02 per cent compared to 15.44 per cent in urban areas.

    As far as the organised sector is concerned, in March 2011, women workers constituted 20.5 per cent of total employment in the organised sector in the country, which is higher by 0.1 per cent compared to the preceding year. As per the last Employment Review by the Directorate General of  Employment & Training (DGE&T), on 31st March 2011, about 59.54 lakh women workers were employed in the organised sector (public and private). Nearly 32.14 lakh women were employed in the community, social, and personal service sectors.

    Feminist Analysis of Existing Laws

    The labour laws in India have thoroughly focused on the idea of promoting growth along with social justice in tandem with the efforts of labour unions. However, despite the state and the unions’ consistent efforts, the laws’ ability to improve women’s living and working conditions was negligible, as described in the landmark report published in 1971, “Towards Equality”. It was an eye-opener to the dire circumstances in which women were surviving with patriarchy clawing its way into not just the domestic sphere but the workplace as well. While acts like the Maternity Benefit Act of 1961 offer relief to women on some levels,  there is a lack of legal awareness among women workers. This is a contributing factor to their being taken advantage of by employers. An analysis of the allocation of Variable Dearness  Allowance of Minimum Wages with effect from October 2022 has no separate mention of women’s labour. The general labour classification in this regard has been Unskilled, Skilled/Clerical, Semi Skilled and Highly skilled are the most probable categories in which women fall under unskilled due to a plethora of reasons. Despite the assumption that the New Labour Code is a relief to women labour across the country, measures must be taken to understand its effective implementation in both the public and private sector organisations.

    Women in Garment Industries

    The garment industries in South Asian nations like India and Bangladesh have been significant contributors to their economies and increased the employment ratio of women in the labour force. “India’s ready-made garment industry contributes around 16 per cent to total export earnings and is the largest foreign exchange earner in the country” (WTO,2019). Post-1980 saw unprecedented growth of the export industry, and the growth chart statistics show that from $2  million in 1960-61 to $696 million in 1980-81, it then increased sharply to $2,236 million in 1990- 91 and to $4,765 million in 1999-2000. The vast wage disparity was the driving force behind the globalisation of the garment industry. Studies have shown that the hourly wage of Indian

    labour is a meagre Rs.8 per hour, whereas a British worker performing the same work received around Rs.420. Thus, the capitalist tendency of the upper class and lower class is synonymous with the imperialist notion of civilised and barbaric groups pushing for cheap labour and higher production of goods.

    The onus of cheap labour fell on women, mainly from the marginalised communities who were desperate for jobs that promised a stable source of income. The Indian state also firmly believed that this was a way to empower women and ensure financial freedom. However, the challenges were masked by the rosy nature of the benefits put forth by the employers. The actual reasons for the employment of women, which were different from the portrayed norms, were: i) the common notion that women in the developing regions were meek beings who would barely retort against any kind of discomfort and would succumb to the system, ii) women will not question the wage disparity for they are fed the patriarchal notion of the superiority of men iii) the stable source of income will not let them rise in protest despite the atrocities meted out to them.

    Here, I would like to discuss a study conducted in Bangalore, Karnataka, which houses more than  800 garment industries and has the largest workforce of women. The exploitative nature of the employment of women in the garment industry is well documented and needs no elaboration. Briefly, the large majority of women, whether working as skilled tailors or as unskilled helpers, do not get even the legally stipulated minimum wage. Workers are frequently required to work overtime, but since this is set against production targets, they are not paid for overtime work. Insecurity of work is one of the most widely reported problems, as employers frequently terminate a woman’s service just before the completion of five years to avoid payment of gratuity. Harsh production targets, sexual and verbal abuse, lack of maternity and other leave, lack of accident insurance, and absence of toilet and creche facilities are some of the commonly stated and widely known features of female employment in garment manufacture. This misery underpins the production of high fashion garments sold in chic stores in the first world and worn by middle and upper-class women who pay for a single dress at a price that exceeds several times the monthly income of a woman who produces it.

    Challenges to women in the garment labour force due to Globalisation

    The post-1991 era in India saw a massive difference in the treatment of women as the labour force in industries, especially the textile sector. Female workers typically migrate from rural areas to work in the garment industry to meet their financial needs. Women labour in the garment industry mostly come from households below the poverty line. Therefore, the proposition for the ’empowerment of women’ through employment in these capitalist industries was thought to pave the road for the emancipation of this vulnerable group. However, with the fast fashion industry booming and the convergence of interests among global consumers, there was and still exists a constant need to satiate consumer behaviour consistently. The mass production of goods became inevitable. This had adverse effects in that it created a hostile working  environment, and reports suggest that it took a toll on the physical and mental health of women:

    i) Impact on physical well-being: The study “Sewing shirts with injured fingers and tears: exploring the experience of female garment workers’ health problems in Bangladesh” found that physical health problems included headaches, eye pain, musculoskeletal pains and fatigue. It further revealed that garment work is also so physically demanding that women cannot work for more than ten years. These findings are consistent with other research, which found that the highest proportion of female workers quit factory work before they reach 40. The workers reported that getting sick and injured was an everyday phenomenon. The doctors thought that women in factories could not work for more than ten years owing to the stressful conditions. This study also described that since the manufacturing units have men as supervisors, it becomes difficult for women to voice their concerns, particularly those related to their menstrual health. Further, this gendered division of labour extends to their home life, where their husbands expect them to fulfil their domestic obligations despite long, physically demanding hours at work.

    ii) Impact on mental well-being: The article “Mental Health Status of Female Workers in Private Apparel Manufacturing Industry in Bangalore City, Karnataka, India” steers the discussion in the direction of the importance of mental health awareness and the need for a safe work environment for women in garment factories. Mental health problems, including depression, have become a global health priority, and socially disadvantaged people are more vulnerable to suffering from mental health problems. There is evidence that scarcity of human resources, limited access to, and cost of mental health services are critical issues in most low- and middle-income countries. Separation from their children is an important issue for them. Most had left their children in their home villages, citing lack of time to care for them due to their long work hours and difficulties in paying for their children’s living costs in the city. They work from morning to night and during weekends, with nobody at home to look after their children. They get to leave only a few times a  year, and the distance to their villages can be up to 10 hours of travel time. As such, they have no option but to leave their children in their village to live with their grandparents. However, avoiding long working hours is impossible, as they need money to provide for their impoverished families.

    To improve the health and well-being of female garment workers, steps should be taken to develop health interventions to meet the needs of this important group of workers who contribute significantly to the country’s economic development.

    Way Forward

    Although women are at a disadvantage, the involvement of women in decision-making becomes indispensable. A developmental perspective based on male priorities and the male concept of the role of women in a patriarchal society such as ours cannot alleviate the lot of women already inhibited by traditional gender-role expectations. Stakeholder theory advocates that firms bear responsibility for the implications of their actions, and based on this, women come under the category of normative stakeholders to whom the industry has a moral obligation: an obligation of stakeholder fairness. Also, stress has to be placed on including women in the policy-making process, thereby increasing accountability of the framed policies. Illiteracy is a global problem and one of the reasons for the deterioration in the status of women and the feminisation of poverty. Ignorance of their rights- political, social, and economic- leads to the exploitation of women and their inability to converge to form a pressure group. The interface between the grassroots women and the activists must be used to build awareness and sensitise people, both men and women. Involving men who are sensitive to women’s issues is a healthy practice. It would benefit the cause of women if their struggle is seen as a fight for human rights,  which it is, and not merely as a gender-based movement.

     

    References

    • Ahmed, F. (2004). The rise of the Bangladesh garment industry: globalisation, women workers, and voice. NWSA Journal, 16(2), 34–45. https://doi.org/10.2979/nws.2004.16.2.34
    • Unni, J., Bali, N., & Vyas, J. H. (1999). Subcontracted women workers in the global economy: the case of the garment industry in India. http://www.sewaresearch.org/pdf/researches/subcontracted.pdf
    • Saha, T. K., Dasgupta, A., Butt, A., & Chattopadhyay, O. (2010). Health status of workers engaged in the small-scale garment industry: How healthy are they? Indian Journal of Community Medicine, 35(1), 179. https://doi.org/10.4103/0970-0218.62584
    • Baud, I., & De Bruijne, G. (1993). Gender, small-scale industry, and development policy. https://doi.org/10.3362/9781780442280
    • Oonk, G., Overeem, P., Peepercamp, M., & Theuws, M. (2012). Maid in India: Young Dalit women continue to suffer exploitative conditions in India’s garment industry. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2119816
    • Carr, M. (2001). GLOBALISATION AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY: HOW GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT IMPACT ON THE WORKING POOR. RePEc: Research Papers in Economics. http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/76309/dc2002/proceedings/pdfpaper/module6mcmc.pdf
    • Hale, A., & Shaw, L. M. (2001). Women workers and the promise of ethical trade in the globalised garment industry: a serious beginning? Antipode, 33(3), 510–530 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8330.00196
    • Mezzadri, A. (2014). Indian Garment clusters and CSR norms: incompatible agendas at the bottom of the garment commodity chain. Oxford Development Studies, 42(2), 238–258. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2014.885939
    • Sharma, L., & Srivastava, M. (2020). A scale to measure organisational stress among women workers in the garment industry. European Journal of Training and Development, 46(9), 820–846. https://doi.org/10.1108/ejtd-04-2019-0060
    • Kabeer, N., & Mahmud, S. (2003). Globalisation, gender, and poverty: Bangladeshi women workers in export and local markets. Journal of International Development, 16(1), 93–109 https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1065
    • ANNUAL REPORT 2022-23. (n.d.). In Ministry of Labour and Employment. Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India.

     

     

    Feature Image Credit: www.changealliance.in

  • As the US exits Afghanistan, who is there to tame Taliban?

    As the US exits Afghanistan, who is there to tame Taliban?

    Sometimes, the best way to triumph over an enemy is to quit the game. In an attempt to honour his election campaign promise of bringing the American soldiers back home, President Trump announced the complete withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. About eight thousand six hundred remaining boys in boots will return from Afghanistan by Christmas this year. The Taliban, whom American forces have been fighting for the last two decades, is now a closed-door dialogue partner of the White House. The arch-rivals in the eerie battleground are now facing off each other in opulent hotels.

    In Doha, the Afghan government caught up with the Taliban at the much-awaited intra-Afghan peace talk, held in September. 

    In the two-decade-long war, America has paid enormously in currency, diplomacy, and defence. It has cost the US exchequer almost $2 trillion. Several efforts to bring peace have gone in vain. Ultimately, Washington has successfully brought the Taliban and the Afghan government to talk to each other. The two belligerent parties are now engaged in the tete-a-tete. In Doha, the Afghan government caught up with the Taliban at the much-awaited intra-Afghan peace talk, held in September. Despite several attempts, an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government could not take place earlier as the bellicose force never recognized the legitimacy of the elected government in Afghanistan. In the eyes of the Taliban, the incumbent in Kabul remains a puppet government of the Western powers. What contrasts the most between the present administration and the earlier Talibani rule is their diametrically opposite ideologies. Whereas the present system in Afghanistan runs democratically, the Taliban believes in the Islamic Sharia law. The battle is now between democracy and theocracy.

    The ongoing peace process is a continuum of American mediation between the Taliban and the Afghan government since February 2020.  White House is nearing an imminent peace deal with the Taliban as they are no longer deeply interested in Afghanistan. Washington’s priority is now countering China’s growing influence.

    In the previous peace talks, the western states sat with the Taliban, disdaining the Afghan government. Even Russia’s attempts failed to produce any fruitful results in favour of Afghanistan. One of the major reasons for the failure is about diluting the Afghan government authority. The Afghan government never endorsed the efforts of foreign nations in the Afghan peace negotiations, in which the Afghan government itself is side-lined. Afghan government affirmed that any kind of peace deal would not be entertained as the legitimate government was not a part of it as it was a clear violation of Afghan sovereignty.  Afghan government took the issue to the United Nations and accused Pakistan of bypassing it in peace talks with the Taliban.

    a large area of Afghanistan and its people are under the Taliban’s control. The Taliban is collecting taxes from the citizens to exercise their undisputed rule.

    Unlike the previous attempts, the intra-Afghan dialogue has raised much hope among the Afghans, the Government, and the international community. But both parties are likely to face many tough challenges to achieve the desired outcome.  The Taliban has already violated the agreement with the United States that resulted in the death of Afghan civilians and army personnel but stresses that it is continuing with the ceasefire. It is possible that by claiming to maintain the ceasefire the Taliban is trying to put pressure on the Afghan government. Despite this hostile situation, the Afghan government has agreed to negotiate with the Taliban mainly for two reasons. First, most of the International Security Assistance Forces and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces have left Afghanistan. The Afghan security forces have neither the training nor the institutional mechanism to provide security to its people. Second, a large area of Afghanistan and its people are under the Taliban’s control. The Taliban is collecting taxes from the citizens to exercise their undisputed rule.

    Unlike the previous peace processes, the current one does not rely much on foreign countries. But the peace deal is likely to affect Afghanistan’s external relations adversely. If the Taliban reverts to its Islamic radicalism, Afghanistan may lose billions of foreign aid it has been receiving since the last decade for the reconstruction of the country. The Afghan government worries that the premature departure of American troops may have a negative impact on international assistance.

    Although both parties agreed to negotiate on the peace deal, there is dissatisfaction within the cadres of the parties. In the recent elections, the two Presidential contestants each claimed electoral victory. A power-sharing arrangement was concluded where Ashraf Ghani is the President and Abdullah Abdullah exercises power as the chairperson of the High Council for National Reconciliation. On the Taliban side, many leaders do not support the peace process as they believe that they could win the Afghan war by military means. They consider  Pentagon’s departure from Afghanistan as a sign of their victory.

    The Taliban continues to maintain its contact with the Al-Qaeda, according to a UN security council report. The US -Taliban agreement of February demands a complete divorce between the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda.  UN reports and the violation of ceasefire show that the Taliban is not adhering to the agreement. Once the peace deal is completed, the Taliban could take advantage of the absence of US troops in Afghanistan and renege on their commitments by maintaining close ties with the Al Qaeda, Haqqani Network, and the other extremist groups. The training camps of these Islamist terrorist groups are being used by Pakistan based terror outfits like Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammed. When Soviet troops left Afghanistan in 1989, insurgency and terrorism increased in Kashmir. It saw a drastic fall when Washington waged war on Taliban and other Islamist extremist groups.

    If the Sharia law returns to Afghanistan, all the democratic rights and the freedom that the Afghan people have seen since the last decade, are likely to be lost.

    The consequences would be grave if the peace deal doesn’t fetch the desired results. The peace deal is necessary for the Afghan government in maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan. If the Sharia law returns to Afghanistan, all the democratic rights and the freedom that the Afghan people have seen since the last decade, are likely to be lost. Even if a peace deal fructifies, it may not ensure peace for every section of society. During the previous Taliban rule, the fundamental rights of women- ranging from education to employment, were denied. Women had to live a sub-human life. At present, women hold 28 percent of the total seats in the parliament. So, if the Sharia law is enacted again, it will deny the basic rights of Afghan women. Millions of Afghan refugees in neighbouring Iran, Pakistan, and elsewhere in European countries cannot hope to return home. The host countries, however, have started sending back the Afghan refugees forcefully amid instability.

    Afghanistan is a country of over a hundred ethnic groups, tribes, non-Muslims, and other communities. Most ethnic groups have a conflict with each other. In recent times, the Taliban attacked the non-Muslim communities, especially Hindus and Sikhs. The Ministry of External Affairs of India facilitated the travels of a few Hindu families to India. Even after the Afghan government concludes a peace deal with the Taliban, conflicts may continue and peace may still be elusive. The effectiveness of the peace deal will depend on the commitments of each party.

    European countries do not have the military or economic strength to prosecute overseas conflicts. The internal mechanism of NATO is weaker than before. And after the Brexit deal, the fragmented European union lacks the political will to intervene in the war-torn state. China’s interests in Afghanistan are mostly commercial. Infrastructures or projects under Belt and Road Initiative can’t be built amid the carnage. China has the political, financial, and military strength to fill the void, after the complete withdrawal of the US forces. The Chinese financial contribution in Afghanistan is a clear sign that the country has a long-term strategy in the region. This apart, China has security concerns as well in Afghanistan. The rise of extremist movements in Afghanistan is likely to impact security in China, especially in Xinjiang province. In recent years, China has increased its military ties with Afghanistan. In the absence of the American troops, Afghanistan may consider China as possible support.

    Once the US exits, Kabul will have an option to raise the peace issue in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO can be the main military and economic block in Asia. Except for Turkmenistan, all the bordering countries of Afghanistan and other major players in South Asia have either members-status or observer status at the SCO. It can certainly play a very effective role as the peacemaker providing its members, each with considerably different stakes in Afghanistan can get their act together.

    The Taliban in the Afghan government would provide political leverage to Pakistan over India.

    If the Taliban assumes power, India-Afghanistan bonhomie will turn frosty. Unlike other countries, the Indian government never supported the Taliban. India has been a staunch supporter of Afghan-led, Afghan controlled and Afghan-owned peace deal. Pakistan has always been supportive of the Taliban as it serves its strategic interests. The Taliban in the Afghan government would provide political leverage to Pakistan over India. Seeing that it has been left out of the Afghan peace talks, it appears that India is coming around to talk to the Taliban.

    Afghans are exhausted from bloodshed in the last few decades. The region has turned into a breeding ground for Islamic State in Khorasan, Al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups. A stable and democratic Afghan government is necessary for maintaining peace in the South Asian region. As the effectiveness of SAARC continues to be hampered by India-Pakistan animosity, other South Asian states, Organization of Islamic Cooperation member states, and other Islamic states like Saudi Arabia or Turkey should act to restrain the Taliban and pave the way for peace in Afghanistan.

     

    Image: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Taliban’s Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and members of his negotiating team. Credit: www.voanews.com

     

  • The Law of Armed Conflict and its continuing relevance to the South Asian Region

    The Law of Armed Conflict and its continuing relevance to the South Asian Region

    The South Asian region has had its share of recent historical experiences with large scale violations as well as allegations of large scale violations of international humanitarian law (IHL).2 This applies as much to instances of international and non-international armed conflict as it does to the situations created by new threats to peace and security such as terrorism. Memories of some of these unfortunate events have not faded over the years. For the sake of convenience, the paper is divided into two parts. The first part elaborates specific examples of IHL related issues in South Asia and also deals with some of the major thematic issues in the context of the region. The second part highlights the challenges to IHL application and implementation in this region. The conclusion summarizes the main strands in IHL’s relevance to the South Asian context. The most interesting aspect of our enquiry that stares us in the face is the fact that IHL related issues apply to almost all South Asian countries. The degree of intensity may differ but the fact remains that acts that attract universally applicable IHL provisions are found aplenty in the region.

    Image Credit: New York Times

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    The Law of Armed Conflict and its continuing relevance to the South Asian Region

  • Modi’s move to engage SAARC on COVID-19 shows his capacity to surprise

    Modi’s move to engage SAARC on COVID-19 shows his capacity to surprise

    Category : Global Health/SAARC

    Title : Modi’s move to engage SAARC on COVID-19 shows his capacity to surprise

    Author : Kanwal Sibal 16-03-2020

    Former foreign secretary, Kanwal Sibal, observes that Prime Minister Modi’s initiative to organise a video-conference of Saarc leaders to develop together a roadmap to fight the challenge of COVID-19 is a well thought out strategy and shows his capacity to surprise. Modi’s move could inject new life into Saarc, just when India was seen as downgrading the Saarc platform for stronger regional cooperation and promoting Bimstec.

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  • India and Nepal: Energy Cooperation

    India and Nepal: Energy Cooperation

    Introduction

    Sustained availability of energy at affordable cost is an essential prerequisite for the growth of a country. Currently the energy consumption per capita in case of Nepal is134 KWH per capita per year, as against world average of 2674 KWH per capita per year.

    GDP Per Capita in $ (PPP)

    Country Energy Consumption in kWh per capita per year GDP Per Capita in $ (PPP) GDP Per Capita in $ (Nominal)
    World Average 2674 11673 11673
    Bhutan 2779 3392 3392
    India 1122 1980 1980
    Maldives 1122 9802 9802
    Pakistan 471 539 539
    Sri Lanka 414 4135 4135
    Bangladesh 351 1564 1564
    Myanmar 193 1256 1256
    Afghanistan 141 538 538
    Nepal 134 900 900

    Table-1: Energy Consumption Vs Gross Domestic Product
    Source:  1.GDP figures for 2017 vide https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita
         2.World Fact Book: Power consumption for various countries of the World.

    Although correlation between energy consumption and the prosperity depends on a number of factors like population but a fact which clearly overshadows others is that as energy consumption increases the prosperity increases. This relationship is equally valid for reverse relationship, i.e. as prosperity increases the necessity for additional energy becomes obligatory. Another interesting observation can be made based on the content of this table. Bhutan is a land locked country which has hardly any major industry in that country, yet their GDP per capita is more than India’s. An examination suggests that Bhutan has adequate hydro resources and hydroelectricity generated exploiting her indigenous resources is far more than her requirement. This surplus generation is sold by Bhutan to India. Revenue thus earned has transformed the country from a poor developing country to a prosperous country quite distinct from other South Asian countries. For the record Bhutan’s revenue from hydro power is 27% of the entire govt revenue and is 14% of Bhutan’s GDP. This also flags an approach which can also help other South Asian countries to improve their economic strength by exploiting their indigenous resources. Another country of South Asia; Nepal can benefit from the model which Bhutan is currently following for sharing its energy resources with India in a ‘win-win’ situation.

    Topography of Nepal

    topography-of-nepal

    Map1: Nepal and its Rivers and Physical features
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Nepal 

    A report of International Hydropower Association, “Bhutan” uploaded on https://www.hydropower.org/country-profile/bhutanography_of_Nepal 

    • Lie of the country is such that all the rivers flow from Nepal to India.
    • High Himalayas separate Nepal from Tibet, whereas southern side of the country is having  a terrain which is plain and that separates Nepal from India therefore while Northern Areas of Nepal act as a barrier between Nepal and Tibet, plains in southern side of the country lends itself for cooperation between India and Nepal. Recent operationalization of an oil pipeline from Motihari in Bihar to Amlekhganj in Nepal is a manifestation of such a cooperation (Little more about it a little later.)
    • Nepal has a huge hydropower potential. In fact, the perennial nature of Nepali rivers and the steep gradient of the country’s topography provide ideal conditions for the development of some of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects in Nepal. Current estimates are that Nepal has approximately 43,000 MW of economically feasible hydropower potential. However, the present situation is that Nepal has developed only approximately 753 MW of hydropower. Therefore, bulk of the economically feasible generation has not been realized yet. Besides, the multi-purpose secondary and tertiary benefits have not been realised from the development of its rivers. Nepal is utilising only 2% of it (i.e., 98% remains unutilised). It may be noted that an optimum exploitation of the hydro resources will contribute substantially to the financial well-being of Nepal. However, it is also a fact that Nepal neither has the financial muscle nor technical knowhow to harness its hydro resources. Therefore, support from friendly foreign countries becomes essential. China has been trying to make inroads into Nepal but whether it can be cost-effective or not is something that needs to be examined in carefully. India, on the contrary, has everything in her favour to support hydro power exploitation by Nepal. In fact power generated in Nepal can also be shared with Bangladesh using Indian grid system, which will be an excellent example of Nepal-India-Bangladesh cooperation, and still better as a BBIN (Bhutan-Bangladesh- India-Nepal) initiative and will be a ‘Win Win’ situation for all three countries.  India will have to use all its traditional heft with Nepal, its diplomatic skills, financial support to beat China who is trying hard to gain a foothold in Nepal’s Hydro energy exploitation domain as they are desperately wanting power.

    Map-3: River Systems of Nepal
    Source: Firoz Alam et al, “A review of hydropower projects in Nepal1st International Conference on Energy and Power”, presented during ICEP2016 at RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia, 14-16 December 2016 and Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 110 (2017) 581 – 585

    • While planning hydro power plants in Nepal, some extra care would be required to be undertaken. Nepal’s topography is unstable due to seismic activities. Hence, all hydropower plants with dam must be well planned and designed to mitigate the environmental impact. Also most Himalayan Rivers contain huge quantities of sediment with hard abrasive particles. The region’s climate and tectonic conditions as well as human activities are highly conducive for erosion and sedimentation. Therefore, sediment management is paramount for the safety, reliability and longer life of infrastructures (hydropower dam, equipment, roads, bridges, irrigation systems and drinking water).

    As close neighbours, India and Nepal share unique ties of friendship and cooperation characterised by an open border and deep-rooted people-to-people contacts of kinship and culture. There has been a long tradition of free movement of people across the border. Nepal shares a border of over 1850 km with five Indian states – Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 forms the bedrock of the special relations that exist between India and Nepal. Nepalese citizens avail facilities and opportunities at par with Indian citizens in accordance with the provisions of the Treaty. Nearly 6 million Nepalese citizens live and work in India. However Nepal is still not well developed and as has been explained earlier suffer from lack adequate energy to fuel its development. India has been a major partner in exploiting its indigenous energy resources and also making up the shortfall on this account.

    Potential and Scope of Hydro Power Cooperation

    Certain studies have been done to ascertain scope for the Indo-Nepal Cooperation in the domain of energy. It has been concluded that in the high build scenario, Nepal’s hydropower capacity is estimated to be 4551 MW. The generation cost in an arrangement of Indo-Nepal combined system would fall by approximately US $106 billion per year. This enhanced capacity will help Nepal to increase her power export to India by 60%. However Nepal’s high build out hydro resources would be fully utilised if operations between Nepal and India are further coordinated and an economic union strategy adopted by the two countries. Effectively, this would mean that trade with Nepal is institutionally is same as trade is between Indian States. Such enhanced power generation will help Nepal to become net exporter of power during dry as well as wet season, with reduced generation cost. On the contrary India ranks 81st in overall energy self-sufficiency at 66% in 2014 . Primary energy consumption in India grew by 7.9% in 2018 and it happens to be the third biggest consumer after China and USA, with 5.8% global share.

    Details of Completed Projects for Energy Cooperation between India and Nepal

    Motihari-Amlekhgunj Oil Pipeline: On 10th September 2019, the Prime Ministers of Nepal and India jointly inaugurated a cross-border oil pipeline through video conferencing. This line will transport fuel to the landlocked country. The aim of this pipe line is to cement India-Nepal ties in the face of major inroads made by China into the Himalayan nation, and seeks to repair the trust deficit between the two countries due to an economic blockade allegedly imposed by India in 2015 to persuade Nepal to change some provisions in its new constitution. Basically the protests at that time were done by people of Madhesh (region bordering India) as they felt that there were certain provisions of the constitution of Nepal which were discriminatory against them. India said at that time that the trucks laden with fuel and medicines, besides other essentials, were stopped by sections of Nepalese population (Madheshis) unhappy with some provisions of their constitution, which they felt were practically disenfranchising them. Nepal, however, viewed it as if India was blocking the supplies to compel Kathmandu to amend the provisions of the constitution that was seen as disenfranchising almost half of the Nepalese population. Therefore, the current initiative seeks to rebuild the confidence between the two countries and will help to bind Nepal closer to New Delhi, economically and strategically. The development comes against the backdrop of recent plans for a rail link between Nepal and China cutting through the Himalayas. There were also plans to link Nepal and China through an energy pipeline running through the Himalayas. Both were seen as means by Nepal to find an alternative to its dependency on India. The 69 km pipeline will transport fuel from the Barauni refinery in Bihar to Amlekhgunj in south-east Nepal and is the first cross-border petroleum products pipeline in South Asia. The Motihari-Amlekhgunj oil pipeline project was first proposed in 1996. The project was put back on the agenda during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kathmandu in 2014. The two governments had signed an agreement to execute the project in August 2015. Construction had begun in April 2018. Construction of the pipeline was undertaken by the Indian Oil Corp. Ltd (IOCL), India’s largest refiner, with an investment of over ₹324 crore, in collaboration with Nepal Oil Corp. Ltd (NOCL). The two sides are also working on building additional storage facility at the Amlekhgunj Depot, wherein NOCL has committed an estimated ₹75 crore. The pipeline can carry up to 2 million metric tonnes of petroleum products each year. Currently, petroleum products are carried from India to Nepal using oil tankers as part of an arrangement which has been in place since 1973. The NOCL not only hopes to save ₹200 crore annually with the new pipeline but will also ensure the transportation is no longer vulnerable to any kind of blockade.

    Power Supply from India to Nepal: India and Nepal have a Power Exchange Agreement since 1971 for meeting the power requirements in the border areas of the two countries, taking advantage of each other’s transmission infrastructure. There are more than twenty 132 kV, 33 kV and 11 kV transmission interconnections which are used both for power exchange in the border areas and for power trade. For enhanced transmission of electricity, the first high-capacity Muzaffarpur (India) – Dhalkebar (Nepal) cross-border power transmission line (initially charged at 132 kV), with GoI Letter of credit (LoC) funding of US$ 13.2 million, was completed in 2016. Two additional 132 kV cross-border transmission lines between Kataiya (India) – Kusaha (Nepal) and Raxaul (India) – Parwanipur (Nepal), built with GoI grant assistance, were completed in 2017. India is currently supplying a total of about 450 MW of power to Nepal. An Agreement on ‘Electric Power Trade, Cross-border Transmission Interconnection and Grid Connectivity’ between India and Nepal was signed on 21 October 2014. The Agreement is aimed at facilitating and further strengthening cross-border electricity transmission, grid connectivity and power trade between Nepal and India. The Agreement provides a framework for power trade between the two countries, import by Nepal from India until it becomes power surplus and subsequent import by Indian entities from Nepal, on mutually acceptable terms and conditions. Two mechanisms, Joint Working Group (JWG) and Joint Steering Committee (JSC) envisaged under the Agreement have been established. Joint Technical Team (JTT) was formed for preparation of a long-term integrated transmission plan covering projects up to 2035.

    Cooperation in the Domain of Hydro Energy: Cooperation in water resources primarily concerning the common rivers is one of the most important areas of bilateral relations. A large number of small and large rivers flow from Nepal into India and constitute an important part of the Ganges River basins (Refer Map-3 above). These rivers have the potential to become major sources of irrigation and power for Nepal and India. A three-tier bilateral mechanism was established in 2008, to discuss issues relating to cooperation in water resources, flood management, inundation and hydropower between the two countries. A Development Authority was set up in September 2014 to carry out the Pancheshwar Multipurpose project. A Power Development Agreement (PDA) for the 900 MW Arun-III hydroelectric project between India’s Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited and the Investment Board of Nepal (IBN) was concluded in November 2014. Also, a PDA for the 900 MW Upper Karnali hydroelectric project was concluded between IBN and M/s GMR in September 2014.

    Projects under Planning/Execution

    Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project: India and Nepal had signed a Treaty known as Mahakali Treaty in February’1996. Implementation of Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project is the centerpiece of the Mahakali Treaty. Required field investigations for the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project have been completed by a Joint Project Office (JPO-PI) in 2002 (except for some confirmatory tests). But mutually acceptable DPR of Pancheshwar Project is yet to be finalised. The constitution of Pancheswar Development Authority has already been notified. Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project (PMP) is a bilateral project, primarily aimed at energy production and augmenting irrigation in India and Nepal. A Treaty known as “Mahakali Treaty” concerning the integrated development of the Mahakali River, which included Sarada barrage, Tanakpur barrage and Pancheshwar Dam Project, was signed between the Government of Nepal and the Government of India on February 12, 1996. During the year 2009, pursuant to the Article-10 of the Mahakali Treaty, the Government of India and the Government of Nepal agreed and framed draft ToR for setting up the Pancheshwar Development Authority, as an independent autonomous body, for development, execution and operation of the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project. To accomplish this shared goal, the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the PDA as agreed upon by the two Governments and as may be amended from time to time, were created. As per the Statute of PDA the administrative organs of the authority are the Governing Body (GB) and the Executive Committee (EC). In order to execute the specific tasks assigned to the Governing Body, five meetings of GB have taken place so far. Pancheshwar Main Dam is proposed on River Mahakali (known as River Sarada in India), where the river forms the international boundary between the Far Western Development Region of Nepal and State of Uttarakhand in India. The dam site is around 2.5 km downstream of the confluence of River Sarju with River Mahakali. The project would comprise of a rock-fill dam with central clay core of 311m height from the deepest foundation level. Two underground power houses at Pancheshwar dam, one on each bank of Mahakali River, each with a capacity of (6×400 MW) with the total installed capacity of nearly 4800 MW are proposed to be constructed. The power plant at main dam will be operated as the peaking station to meet energy demand in India and Nepal. A re-regulating dam at Rupaligad is proposed around 27 km downstream of the main dam to even out peaking flows released from Pancheshwar power houses for meeting downstream irrigation water requirement. Here, two underground powerhouses on both sides of river with total installed capacity of 240 MW (2 x 60 MW on either bank) are envisaged. The main dam (when impounded with water up to Flood Regulating Level (FRL)) will form a reservoir of around 11,600 hectare area with a gross storage volume of about 11,355 million cubic metres. The submergence area on Indian side is 7,600 hectare, covering districts namely Pithoragarh, Almora and Champawat in the state of Uttarakhand whereas remaining 4000 hectares of submergence will be in Nepal. The project aims at producing hydro power and enhance the food grains production in both the countries by providing additional irrigation resulting from the augmentation of dry season flows. Year round irrigation will be possible in agricultural land in Kanchanpur district in Nepal due to enhancement in flows during non-monsoon months. The project will generate Two underground power houses at Pancheshwar dam, one on each bank of Mahakali River, each with a capacity of (6×400 MW) with the total installed capacity of nearly 4800 MW are proposed to be constructed. The power plant at main dam will be operated as the peaking station to meet energy demand in India and Nepal. Power generated will be shared equally between both the nations as per Treaty. Irrigation benefits in form of annual irrigation will be about 0.43 Mha, out of this, annual irrigation in Nepal would be 0.17 Mha and remaining 0.26 Mha in India. In addition, due to moderation of flood peak at reservoir(s), incidental flood control benefits for both the countries are also envisaged from the project. Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project is one of the top priority projects to be implemented in phased manner to reap the benefits of the project as early as possible. The work of preparation of Detailed Project Report (DPR) was entrusted to Water and Power Consultancy Services Limited (WAPCOS) by PDA and WAPCOS have in turn submitted the draft final DPR of the project to PDA in November, 2016. At present the finalization of Detailed Project Report (DPR) of the project is underway. A Team of Experts/Officials has been formed by both the countries for discussing and resolving all issues towards finalization of the DPR. After finalization of DPR, the Pancheshwar Development Authority shall undertake the execution, operation and maintenance of the project, including the work of re-regulating dam at Rupaligad site in an integrated manner.

    Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project and SUN Kosi storage cum diversion scheme: After exchange of letter of Understanding between the two Governments in June’ 2004, a Joint Project Office (JPO) was set up in August’ 2004 to undertake detailed field investigations for preparation of DPR of SaptaKosi High Dam Project at Barakshetra in Nepal.  DPR is under progress.

    Kamla and Bagmati Multipurpose Projects The JPO-SKSKI has also been entrusted to undertake the feasibility study of Kamla Dam and preliminary study of Bagmati Dam Projects. These studies are in progress.

    Project Completion Prospects

    Hydro power projects have a long gestation period and therefore, it can safely be assumed that the export from Nepal of power will not be able to commence before 2025. Nepal will be able to export 18 billion kWh in 2025 which will go up to 93 billion kWh by 2035 and then will start flattening and by 2040 it would be 115 trillion Watt hour because by that time it is anticipated that because of the growing prosperity domestic consumption will also pick up. In rainy season when the reservoirs will be at their peak capacity, it is estimated that by 2030 13 GW would be available for export.

    Conclusion

    Notwithstanding the political division within South Asia, it is important to appreciate that the energy resources are monolithic in nature. Due to topography of the country most of the hydropower resources are concentrated in the Himalayas; spanning Nepal, Bhutan and Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Hydro power is a form of green energy and it would be ideal in case a mechanism can be evolved to exploit it for common good. It is essential that India, in conjunction with Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, needs to make attempts to make use of energy resources available in all these countries; hydro power is one such resource. In this connection the platform of BBIN (Bhutan-Bangladesh-India-Bhutan-IndiaNepal) needs to be exploited. In fact recent pipeline laid by India between Motihari in Bihar and Amlekhgunj in Nepal is great example of cooperation that benefits the region and the parties involved.

  • New challenges of global terrorism

    New challenges of global terrorism

    G Parthasarathy                                                                                                  May 23, 2019/Opinion

    The people of Sri Lanka have shown courage, wisdom and resilience in recovering from the traumatic effects of the country’s brutal ethnic conflict between 1983 and 2010. An estimated 47,000 Tamil civilians, 27,000 LTTE members, 50,000 Sinhala civilians, 23,790 Sri Lankan soldiers and 1,500 members of the Indian Peace Keeping Force laid down their lives, during the conflict.

    he Sri Lankan ethnic conflict, however, did not affect the lives of “Indian Tamils” in Southern Sri Lanka, whose ancestors had migrated, as plantation workers, during British rule. There have, however, been recent incidents of religious tensions between the Sinhala Buddhist clergy and radicalised elements in the Muslim minority. Sri Lanka’s relatively small Christian minority, which is peaceful and relatively affluent, had steered clear of getting drawn into any ethnic conflict.

    In these circumstances, the world was shocked to learn that in the midst of holy Easter Sunday church services on April 21, churches in Colombo, Negombo and even the eastern port of Tamil dominated Batticaloa, were hit by bomb explosions.

    Three hotels housing a large number of western tourists in Colombo were also targeted. As many as 253 innocent people perished in the carnage.

    The “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” (ISIS) soon claimed responsibility for the attack, contradicting President Trump’s claims that the terrorist outfit had been “100 per cent” crushed in Syria. It soon emerged that the mastermind behind the blasts was a rabidly fundamentalist Sri Lankan Tamil, Maulvi Mohammad Zahran Hashim, who was from the town of Kathankudy, in Sri Lanka’s Tamil dominated eastern province.

    Indian intelligence agencies had provided timely warnings to the Sri Lankan Government about an impending terrorist strike by the ISIS. These warnings were not seriously taken note of by the Sri Lanka Government. It is, however, imperative that India keeps in touch discreetly with the Sri Lankan Government. We are evidently seeing the beginnings of long-term internal and regional problems and challenges, as ISIS members disperse and regroup, after being ousted from Iraq and Syria, like Al Qaeda and the Taliban did, after American militarily intervention in Afghanistan.

    As the ISIS targets in Sri Lanka were the country’s peaceful Christian community and western (Christian) tourists, the bomb attacks sent ripples across the West, as the attacks came soon after the massacre of Muslims in New Zealand, during their Sunday prayers.

    Radicalisation drive

    Sri Lanka’s Muslim community, which has done well economically in the Island, has lived in peace with both Buddhist Sinhalas and Hindu Tamils. Recent studies, however, indicate that some years before the bombings, sections of Tamil Muslims from the eastern province were getting radicalised in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries.

    Zahran Hashim was one of those so influenced by radical Islamist practices and beliefs. Cutting across ethnic differences, Hashim made common cause with Sinhala Muslims, including two sons of a Muslim business tycoon in Colombo, who had been deeply influenced by the ISIS. Both the sons died in suicide bomb blasts, even as the wife of another bomber detonated explosives in a suicide bombing the same day, resulting in the deaths of three police personnel.

    The Sri Lanka bomb blasts were thus executed by young radicalised Sri Lankan Muslims, cutting across the ethnic divide. Moreover, there are now signs that an estimated 75-100 Indian Muslims, who were with the ISIS in Syria, have dispersed and chosen escape routes, including through Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hashim has also reportedly established close institutional links with a counterpart group in Coimbatore and with people in other parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

    There are now indications that after being forced out of Iraq and Syria, ISIS fighters have now dispersed across Asia, Africa and even to parts of Europe. While the Osama bin Laden-led Al Qaeda made it clear that its struggle was against “Jews and Crusaders,” the ISIS targets all non-Muslims, as was evident from its brutal killings of Indians in Iraq. Moreover, the Al Qaeda operated primarily out of Afghanistan and Pakistan, apart from select Arab countries. Al Qaeda’s leadership was predominantly Arab. It had very few members from other parts of the world.

    The ISIS poses a much more serious challenge to India than the Al Qaeda ever did, primarily because it has recruited its fighters from countries across Europe, Asia and Africa. President George Bush praised India because not a single Indian joined or backed Al Qaeda. But, things are different with ISIS, which regards India as a part of the “Islamic State of Khorasan”. Over 100 Indians are estimated to have joined the ISIS.

    Extending its reach

    The reach of ISIS across India is evident from its links with extremists in Kashmir, apart from those established in the recent past, in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Radicalisation in our southern States poses new and serious security challenges. ISIS also acknowledges its links with associates, across India’s maritime frontiers in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia, Maldives, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It also has a growing presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    India will also have to take note of the distinct possibility of ISIS attempting to take advantage of tensions arising out of the Rohingya refugee crisis. A senior Myanmar official recently revealed that even as ISIS was losing influence in Iraq and Syria, its supporters were moving into Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where Rohingyas reside. Many Rohingya refugees, now in Bangladesh, could well make common cause with ISIS and with members of Pakistani backed militant outfits like the Jamat-ul-Mujahideen, to destabilise the situation along the common borders of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Pakistan has had an abiding interest in destabilising the Sheikh Hasina-led Government in Bangladesh.

    Apart from having to deal with continuing Pakistan sponsored terrorism, India will now also have to keep a watch on challenges that would likely arise from the ISIS, with its emerging presence in the southern States. Like in Sri Lanka, ISIS activities could target selected sections of the population in India, while seeking to radicalise them. They will pose a challenge to internal security in India. Finally, Pakistan could be expected to use the challenges posed by ISIS, to absolve itself of responsibility on actions of its trained jihadis, on Indian soil and in Bangladesh. These issues will hopefully receive careful attention after the general elections.

    The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan. He is a Trustee and Visiting Distinguished fellow of TPF.

    This article was published earlier in The Hindu: BusinessLine.

    Image Credit-Getty through Vox.

  • After Balakot: India-Pak ties and nuclear bombast

    After Balakot: India-Pak ties and nuclear bombast

    Mohan Guruswamy                                                                      Apr 19, 2019/Commentary

    We know that in the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes, India and Pakistan went into some form of nuclear readiness. The Indian Navy quietly announced last week that all its crucial assets, including the nuclear missile-launching INS Arihant, were deployed in the Arabian Sea. Unlike the United States and the erstwhile Soviet Union (now Russia), which had several stages of nuclear readiness to signal intent and gravity, India and Pakistan have no such signalling language. So, when it comes, it comes.

    Politicians on both sides of the border are prone to loose talk and nuclear sabre-rattling is part of their lexicon. But this is not without some reason and purpose. Even though there is little risk of a nuclear world war any longer, because of their awesome power and potential to inflict sudden and massive violence on large populations, nuclear weapons inspire tremendous and often irrational fear, however infinitesimal the probabilities of their use. When both adversaries have nuclear weapons, you have a balance of terror.

    As a matter of fact, in the prevailing international situation, any war involving even conventional forces cannot remain a local affair for long, to be sorted out by just the two adversaries. Where there is even the smallest risk of an escalation to nuclear conflict, that intervention could be quite quick. This is what the Pakistanis are counting on.

    But since nuclear weapons cannot be used, their only utility lies in the mere threat of their use. In nuclear theology, this has come to be known as “the utility in non-use”. From time to time declared and undeclared nuclear powers have tried to use nuclear weapons in this manner. The Pakistanis are only travelling down a well-trod path. Each time the Pakistanis threaten us with nuclear war, what they are in fact doing is semaphoring to the rest of the world, particularly those of the West, that have taken it upon themselves to supervise the international regime, to intervene.

    In the early days of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, an incident occurred which tells a great deal about how the game of nuclear diplomacy is played. The sudden and successful attack by Egyptian troops under the command of Gen. Saaduddin Shazli not only put the Egyptians back on the Sinai Peninsula but also unveiled a new generation of Soviet weapons and tactics to match. At the northern end of Israel, a Syrian armored attack under Gen. Mustafa Tlas was threatening to push the surprised Israelis down the slopes of the Golan Heights. In just the first three days of the conflict, the highly regarded Israeli Air Force lost over 40 fighter aircraft and a huge number of tanks to the new generation of Soviet anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. The panicked Israelis turned to the United States for assistance but found Washington quite reluctant. Both President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger till then were of the opinion that a degree of battlefield reverses was needed to get an increasingly intransigent Israel to the conference table. Caught, in a manner of speaking, between the devil and the deep sea, the Israelis then played their nuclear card.

    American surveillance satellites and high-flying reconnaissance aircraft suddenly began to pick up unusually heightened activity around the Israeli nuclear facility at Dimona near the Negev desert. Israeli defence minister Moshe Dayan, while imploring Dr Kissinger to start the airlift of urgently-needed weapons and military technical assistance, told him about how desperate their situation actually was and had already hinted that Israel might have to resort to nuclear weapons to halt the Arab armies. The alarmed Americans sent a SR-71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft fitted with special sensors to detect nuclear material over Dimona. The SR-71’s sensors picked up the signature of nuclear material on a bomb conveyor apparently loading an Israeli fighter-bomber. Whether the nuclear flare registered was from an actual nuclear weapon or radioactive material in a container to simulate a weapon will never be known.

    To the advantage of Israel, the Americans read this as preparations for an imminent nuclear attack. Would the Soviets sit quietly when their allies were subjected to a nuclear attack — would have been their immediate thought? Was this going to be the beginning of World War III? Within minutes, President Nixon was on the line to Prime Minister Golda Meir, telling her that a massive US airlift bearing much-needed weapons and military advisers was ordered and that the supply would begin within hours.

    In early 1952, as the Chinese poured in troops into Korea to grind to a halt the advance of the American-led UN forces, a highly placed US diplomat in Geneva conveyed through Indian diplomat K.M. Pannikar a warning to China that the United States will use nuclear weapons on it unless it agreed to talks immediately. China soon afterwards agreed to hold talks, which soon resulted in the armistice that holds till today.

    Others have done this somewhat differently. During the 1982 Falklands War, the British quietly deployed the nuclear submarine HMS Conqueror, armed with nuclear missiles, off the Argentine coast. As the fighting raged and the Argentines scored some naval victories by sinking the destroyer HMS Sheffield and the converted Harrier jet carrier Atlantic Conveyor, the Royal Navy revealed the presence of its nuclear submarine. The presence of the Conqueror with nuclear weapons was to tell its somewhat lukewarm ally, the United States, that if the war went badly for it Britain would be forced to use even nuclear weapons. It was therefore in America’s interest to not only using its enormous clout with the Argentines to end its occupation of the Falkland Islands but to also assist Britain. Soon after this the US tilted fully in favour of the British by giving it critical intelligence and political support.

    In 1992, then US President George H.W. Bush conveyed to Saddam Hussein that a poison gas attack on Israel using its Scud missiles would invite a nuclear strike upon it. The Iraqis fired several Scuds on Israel, but none with poison gas. After the war, UN inspectors scouring Iraq for weapons capable of mass destruction detected huge quantities of poison gas in ready to use explosive triggered canisters. Obviously, the threat had worked.

    Clearly, the threat of the first use of nuclear weapons, if provoked beyond a point, could be often as effective as nuclear deterrence. In recent times, to give credence to its irrationality, Pakistan has deployed or claims to have deployed tactical nuclear weapons to some of its formations. Since a tactical nuclear weapon has a much smaller destructive power, its use is considered somewhat more likely and hence more credible than a strategic nuclear weapon. A strategic weapon is a city or area-buster, whereas a tactical weapon is said to have only a battlefield application. But India’s response to this is that whatever the weapon, and wherever it is used, if it is used it will invite a full-scale retaliation. Many analysts think this is not credible, and India needs a flexible policy that will allow it to also match escalation up the ladder.

    But the frequent Pakistani outbursts that nuclear war can happen here if the Kashmir situation boils over is an addition to the known nuclear semaphoring practices. Here the Pakistanis are using the Western abhorrence of nuclear war to influence Indian policy. They are not threatening India, because that is not credible, more so since India has a far bigger nuclear arsenal. They are in fact threatening the world that the balance of terror might be breached, and inviting it to intervene. Whatever the nature of this intervention, it is deemed to be in its favour. We saw this happen in 2008 when within minutes of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks Presidents and Prime Ministers from all over began calling our Prime Minister calling for restraint. We have a somewhat ironical situation here. A cruel and ruthless military presiding over a notoriously lawless and corrupt nation is pleading for Kashmir’s supposed right to self-determination and is blackmailing the world to come to its assistance.

    The author is a Trustee and Distinguished Fellow of ‘The Peninsula Foundation’. He is a prolific commentator on economic, political, and security issues. The views expressed are his own.

    This article was published earlier in Deccan Chronicle.

    Photo Credit: PTI

  • Then & Now: A Reflective Study of Development Initiatives in Bangladesh

    Then & Now: A Reflective Study of Development Initiatives in Bangladesh

        Yamuna Matheswaran                                                                               March 31, 2019/Analysis

    Towards the end of 2010, I travelled to Bangladesh with the rest of my graduate school cohort to study various developmental approaches within the country’s healthcare, garment, banking, and agricultural sectors. It was an enlightening trip–one that allowed me to understand not only the intricacies of international development but to also gain a more nuanced perspective of the country as a whole.

     

    “To understand Bangladesh, you have to understand the war.”

    – Omar Rahman, Professor, Independent University, Bangladesh

     

    Scores of Bangladeshis lost their lives in the struggle for independence in 1971 in what was then known as East Pakistan, and nearly 10 million crossed the border into India as the war waged on. They had no army, minimal weaponry and, realistically speaking, not much of a chance for survival against the genocidal tactics employed by the Pakistani Army–actions that its allies, the United States and China, refused to condemn. They fought back, however, and in doing so displayed the same extraordinary resilience that was demonstrated by its students during the Bengali Language Movement of 1952. On 16 December 1971, the new nation of Bangladesh was born.

    A street in Dhaka ©YamunaMatheswaran

    Taking a bus ride through the cacophonic streets of Dhaka, thoughts raced through my mind: how simultaneously similar and different Bangladesh was from my own home country of India, how accommodating its people were, and how–despite growing up in congested Indian cities–Dhaka’s traffic was the craziest thing I’d ever seen. It still is. After all, Dhaka has a density of 47,400 people per sq. km, and around 37,000 cars are said to be added to its roads every year.

    In 2017, Bangladesh’s population stood at approx. 164 million compared to 152 million in 2010. But the population growth rate has been in steady decline since 1986, and the implementation of various developmental approaches have contributed significantly to that decline. (Population Data from World Bank)

    An Overview of the Facts

    Bangladesh has its share of problems, and then some. For starters, there is the tangible dilemma of overpopulation. But unlike India, which is well on its way to becoming the most populated country on the planet, the total fertility rate in Bangladesh has been successfully lowered from nearly 7 births per woman in the late 60s to 2.104 in 2016. Even so, Dhaka remains one of the world’s most densely populated cities. And with increased longevity, concerns have arisen over the lack of facilities and infrastructure required to care for the country’s growing elderly population.

    All around Dhaka, construction sites are aplenty, and dust from these sites worsens the already noxious city air. It’s no surprise then that Bangladesh experiences issues of environmental degradation, while also being susceptible to the devastating impacts of climate change. Scores of people, including millions whose livelihoods depend upon agriculture, have been affected by the frequent cyclones, floods and droughts.

    Illustration ©YamunaMatheswaran

    The drainage systems aren’t too different from the ones in Indian cities, and heavy rains even for brief periods can disrupt normal life and cause flooding and waterlogging. Setbacks with the electricity supply, cases of arsenic poisoning in groundwater and ineffective methods of trash disposal are some of the issues that constitute the miscellany of Bangladesh’s woes. Political tensions, attacks on journalists and widespread problems of corruption hinder effective governance of the nation.

    In spite of these modern-day problems, Bangladesh is on the right track to eliminating extreme poverty by 2030. According to data from the World Bank, the percentage of the population living in extreme poverty ($1.90, 2011 PPP) fell below 14% in recent years, compared to over 40% in 1991-92. And while it still ranks among the poorest highly populated countries in the world, the GDP growth rate of Bangladesh hit an astounding 7.86% in 2018.

    In its less-than-fifty-years of existence, Bangladesh has pioneered breakthroughs in the fields of public health and microfinance, passed noteworthy drug policies, significantly improved aspects of agricultural production, and achieved unprecedented growth in its GDP largely attributed to the development of its garment industry. Notably, it has attained these goals by incorporating its women into the national economy by means of several women-centric initiatives. Institutions such as icddr,b, BRAC, and Proshika are models of the kind of development that is directed by the locals and is, hence, ultimately more sustainable.

    The Microfinance Revolution

    After Mohammad Yunus founded Grameen Bank in 1982, microfinance became a phenomenon in the developing world, providing small loans free of collateral, lifting thousands of people out of poverty and making businesspersons out of the extremely poor.

    women in rice fields
    Women working in rice fields ©pixabay

    Over the years, however, the field has been tainted by reports of corruption and mismanagement. Criticism has focused on the fact that loans are frequently issued to the poor with the sole purpose of reaping profits, thus overlooking the necessary supplementary steps. Does the borrower have a plan for increasing income generation with the help of the loan? Do they have the necessary qualities/resources for said business plan? Is the money in actuality utilised in income generating projects or elsewhere? Often borrowers, who are ill-educated about the various facets of microcredit loans, make use of the newly acquired capital to purchase goods, pay school fees, etc. With no increment in revenues, they inevitably enter into a vicious cycle of debt, and are forced to undertake another loan in order to repay the previous one. MFI collection agents and their coercion tactics have also been listed as a reason for an increase in suicides among borrowers.

    In contrast, Gonoshasthaya Kendra’s seasonal loans, which require the borrowers to start making repayments after the harvest, seem more logical. Nonetheless, researchers have pointed out that although microfinance might not have a transformative effect on the lives of people, it does have a positive impact. For one, increasing reliability of and access to credit leads to an increased sense of agency and freedom in one’s life.

    Pioneering Healthcare Initiatives

    From facilitating the local manufacture of drugs to offering affordable health insurance to poorer sections of society, Bangladesh has made extraordinary advancements in the public health sector.

    Set up in 1972, Gonoshasthaya Kendra (GK) was the first health centre in newly independent Bangladesh. It was established by Dr Zafrullah Chowdhury with the aim of making basic healthcare accessible to the rural population. Dr Chowdhury was also instrumental in the conceptualisation of the breakthrough National Drug Policy of 1982, which ensured the safety, availability and affordability of essential drugs. GK’s services have since expanded beyond affordable primary healthcare to include work education, nutrition, agricultural cooperatives, disaster management, rehabilitation and women’s empowerment. Hygiene and sanitation in many of GK’s wards has been a persistent issue however, and poses high threats of nosocomial infections.

    Routine checkup at a village health camp in Savar ©YamunaMatheswaran

    The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) originated in 1960 as the Cholera Research Laboratory in the sub-district of Matlab and was officially named icddr,b in 1978. Primarily a research institute, it has been credited with playing a key role in the discovery of oral rehydration therapy (ORS) to combat cholera and diarrhoea, the latter being a leading cause of infant mortality. The institute also focuses on neonatal care, treatments for tuberculosis, malaria and HIV/AIDS, and carries out meticulous demographic surveillance. At the time working on rotavirus vaccine trials, icddr,b’s clinical studies have since contributed to the development of affordable rotavirus vaccines. The institute relies on the funding it receives from several donors, since government expenditure on healthcare (as percentage of total GDP and budget) has reduced to a point where it is the lowest among 21 Asian countries, according to a 2018 United Nations survey.

    Cleanliness and technological resources of icddr,b’s hospital in Dhaka appeared to be far better than that of the GK hospital in Savar. However, doctors at icddr,b were quick to commend GK on its effective performance. It’s a matter of concern for GK, though, that a number of its students that graduate from its university, Gono Bishwabidyalay, choose to work for other institutions/hospitals, either for economic reasons or to pursue further specialization or be able to contribute to the research arena, leading to a shortage of doctors.

    The Façade of the Fashion Industry

    Bangladesh is the world’s second largest exporter of readymade apparel, second only to China. Garments constitute 80% of the nation’s earnings from exports, and in 2015, Bangladesh exported clothing worth over $26 billion, mainly to Europe and the United States.

    The garment industry has revolutionised Bangladesh’s economy and significantly impacted its society. A large majority of its workers are female; increased economic freedom has led to women bearing fewer children, thus contributing to declining fertility rates and tackling the dilemma of overpopulation. From the looks of it, it seemed like a win-win situation: the garment industry employed numerous people in developing countries, increased foreign investment and was responsible for an increase in the annual GDP growth rate. International brands now paid a fraction of the production costs that they used to, while oblivious buyers continued shopping at Zara, Forever 21, Russell Europe and Walmart, unaware that they were paying starkly different prices for clothes that had all been manufactured under the roof of the same factory.

    garment industry
    A garment factory in Bangladesh ©YamunaMatheswaran

    But the entire world got a reality check with the tragic Rana Plaza building collapse in 2013, which claimed 1,134 lives and was termed a “mass industrial homicide”. But long before that horrifying incident, workers had already been calling for liveable wages and safer work environments, and other deadly incidents had led to periodic loss of lives.

    On 12 December 2010, on our way to the airport, we drove past one of Bangladesh’s export processing zones and caught a glimpse of what appeared to be a peaceful protest against delays in the implementation of a wage hike. We later came to learn that the protest had turned violent, claiming at least three lives and leaving dozens of people injured.

    The factory we visited at the time, Knit Asia Ltd., boasted good working conditions and facilities including a free childcare centre and regular fire drills. It was one of Bangladesh’s leading garment manufacturers, and also owned the largest biological effluent treatment plant in the country.  However, that is more the exception than the norm.

    In 2010, Bangladesh’s garment workers received the lowest wages in the world – as little as $45 per month. That amounted to a measly $0.25 an hour, when compared to the hourly wages of $0.48 and $0.57 earned by workers in China and India at the time, respectively. From what I garnered, it cost Russell Europe $3 to manufacture a polo shirt in 2010, which was then sold for approximately $7.

    The profit made from the sale of a single piece of the polo shirt exceeded the factory worker’s daily wage.

    In 2019, minimum wage for garment workers in Bangladesh is approximately $95 (or 8,000Tk) a month. It was not enough to make a decent living then, and it still isn’t today, and workers are still fighting to be paid a living wage. Since consumer demand dictates how the garment industry functions, we as buyers have a responsibility to utilise this power to generate awareness and take a stand against inhumane practices by choosing ethical brands over fast fashion.

    The Role of Women in Development

    “Bangladesh shows what happens if you take women seriously as agents of development. It not only halved the rate of fertility within a generation, but also increased women’s influence within their own households. For the first time, wives controlled the size of families.” – Out of the Basket, The Economist (3 Nov 2012)

    women in sarees
    A village microfinance meeting ©YamunaMatheswaran

    The role of women in mainstream Bangladeshi society is a contradiction of sorts. Women are the principal participants in the microfinance sector, a majority of the paramedics that work in villages are female, and they constitute 80% of the workers in garment factories. Nearly every institution that we came into contact with – BRAC, GK, icddr,b, Proshika – had a project that focussed on empowering rural women. However, like in other countries rooted in patriarchy, sexual harassment is rampant, female enrolment rate in universities is low, and women do not enjoy the same freedom and social stature as men.

    Regardless, the empowerment of women is crucial to development. It has been demonstrated that women are more likely than men to spend their incomes/loans on the welfare of the entire family as opposed to squandering it on nonessential goods. Increasing women’s access to education and economic security also results in reduced birth rates, which ultimately alleviates myriad issues associated with overpopulation.

    To Harbour a Dream

    Upon the conclusion of our study tour, what stood out to me most was the hospitality of the people who went out of their way to ensure that we were comfortable and well-fed at all times, with plenty of tea and biscuits between meals. To this day, I remember my experience of travelling around Bangladesh fondly. The lessons that it has taught me in the field of development – about what works as well as what doesn’t – remain invaluable. Considering the number of NGOs that are at work in Bangladesh – reportedly over 2,500 – I wonder if collaboration might render them more effective.

    En route ©YamunaMatheswaran

    Nevertheless, this land that has been twice occupied and weathered innumerable floods and famines is a prime example of what locally pioneered methods of just and sustainable development can achieve.

    Working with iDE during the last few days of our tour provided the most tangible example of how something as simple and affordable as a treadle pump can truly empower families. How I’d love to hear that the bottle gourd-growing couple eventually realized their dream of travelling abroad! But the essential part is the fact that one is prepared to harbour a dream.

    Yamuna Matheswaran is a freelance writer, artist, and technical editor at TPF. She has a Master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Denver and is currently based in New Delhi.

  • Poll Trail in India’s Backyard

    Poll Trail in India’s Backyard

    This article was published earlier in ‘The Tribune’.

    A DEVELOPMENT that has received scant notice in global politics is the democratisation of South Asia, where elected governments rule all the regional countries. An alliance of Maoists and the Communist Party (UML) was voted to power in Nepal in November-December 2017. Scheduled elections were held this year in Bhutan, where the enlightened monarchy voluntarily ceded power to elected governments. Pakistan saw a change in government recently, when the Imran Khan-led Tehreeq-e-Insaf party was voted to power, though there is evidence that the victory was ‘facilitated’ by the army. The Maldives saw a welcome change in government, with opposition parties joining hands to nominate the soft-spoken Ibrahim Mohammed Solih, to oust the authoritarian and anti-India government of President Abdullah Yameen.

    Bangladesh is now headed for general election on December 30. This will be followed by the General Election in India next year. Presidential elections are also scheduled in Afghanistan next year. Interestingly, it is President Ghani who is determined to hold these elections next year. The Trump administration, however, seems keen to thrust a government with Taliban participation on the Afghan people, to facilitate the expeditious withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan, instead of backing a constitutionally mandated election.

    After going through the traumatic experience of having its elected government arbitrarily dismissed and its legislature dissolved by President Sirisena, Sri Lanka has seen its elected government and parliament being restored, with the judiciary asserting its constitutional authority. Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka are scheduled in 2020. But given the continuing personal and policy differences between President Sirisena and PM Wickremesinghe, the island nation appears headed for uncertain times politically and economically in coming months.

    Developments in South Asia will also be seriously affected by what transpires in the elections in Bangladesh, the results of which will have a bearing on the security of India’s Northeast. The results could shape the contours of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism against India, by groups operating from Bangladesh. India has seen a vast improvement in relations with Bangladesh during the past decade, because of the cooperation and understanding of the Awami League government headed by Sheikh Hasina.

    The last decade saw the resolution of the long-pending problem of demarcation of India’s borders with Bangladesh and exchange of enclaves, which was completed in 2016. Likewise, the demarcation of the maritime boundary with Bangladesh was completed, with a UN tribunal awarding Bangladesh 19,467 sq km of the disputed 25,602 sq km in the Bay of Bengal. Sheikh Hasina’s two terms in office in recent years have also seen a remarkable strengthening of anti-terrorism cooperation with India. This involved firm action against Indian separatist groups, which were provided a haven by Khaleda Zia and her Bangladesh National Party, with Pakistani involvement. India and Bangladesh have acted jointly against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism on their soil by measures like the decision not to participate in the SAARC Summit to be held in Islamabad.

    India’s economic cooperation with Bangladesh has increased substantially in recent years, with projects for the supply of over 3600 MW hydroelectric and thermal power by India. This has been accompanied by substantial expansion in road and rail communication links. Moreover, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh achieved an unprecedented rise in economic growth, with a threefold increase in per capita income and a reduction of people living below the poverty line, from 19 per cent to 9 per cent. Bangladesh is no longer classified as a ‘least developed country’. A booming textile industry and moves to step up growth in areas like pharmaceuticals and IT have spurred optimism that Bangladesh could soon reach a 9 per cent growth rate.

    Hasina has virtually decimated her rival Khaleda and her party. Also, the formidable Jamat-e-Islami has been banned from participating in elections. Khaleda is in jail, convicted on charges of corruption. Accusations of authoritarianism against Sheikh Hasina have, however, resulted in the forging of opposition unity. The octogenarian Dr Kamal Hossain, who played a leading role in the Bangladesh freedom struggle and became a close associate of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, engineered this development. The opposition parties, including Khaleda’s BNP and members of the Jamat-e-Islami, have joined this alliance, labelled as the Jatiya Oikya Front (National Unity Front), to take on the Awami League. Pakistan has maintained close ties with the BNP and Jamat-e-Islami.

    Sheikh Hasina has welcomed Chinese assistance, including financing of important projects. China has committed $38 billion in loans, though Bangladesh officials have made it clear that they have no intention of walking into a debt trap, like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. But Bangladesh has welcomed Chinese efforts to find an amicable solution to the Rohingya issue. Sheikh Hasina has averred that Bangladesh will not get involved in US-China rivalries, stating: ‘Our foreign policy is very clear. We want friendly relations with everyone. What China and US are doing is between them.’ But China let the cat out of the bag about its preferences in Bangladesh, when Khaleda met President Xi in 2016 during his visit to Bangladesh. A press note by the Chinese embassy in Dhaka noted: ‘President Xi Jinping appreciated that the BNP has firmly maintained a friendly policy towards China for years.’ Despite protestations of ‘non-interference’, China has given indications of its involvement in the internal politics of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, where Chinese and Pakistani preferences have been identical. Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League are approaching the electorate with a creditable record on economic development. The challenge by a united opposition can’t, however, be ignored.

    Ambassador G Parthasarathy is a former diplomat and a prolific commentator on geopolitics. He is a trustee of TPF. The views expressed are his own.

    Note: Since the time this article was published, Bangladesh went to polls and Sheikh Hasina has won a land-slide victory. This is bound to have a very positive impact on the region, and on India-Bangladesh relations in particular – TPF research team.

  • Assess Pakistan’s Sincerity to end cross-border Terror

    Assess Pakistan’s Sincerity to end cross-border Terror

    Published earlier in ‘The New Indian Express’.

    It is unfortunate that the solemnity of events marking the 10th anniversary of the barbarous terrorist attack on Mumbai, by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) was negated, by the hype and drama surrounding Indian participation in the opening of the Sikh holy shrine in Kartarpur. The Israelis sought out and arrested, or eliminated those German Nazis responsible for the holocaust of Jews during World War II. Even those Nazi War Criminals living in countries as far off as Argentina were sought out, eliminated, or brought to justice. Those responsible for, or involved in, the Mumbai massacres of March 12, 1993 and November 26, 2008, ranging from Dawood Ibrahim to Lashkar military commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, live comfortably in Pakistan.

    Imran Khan, like other Pakistani leaders, has resorted to the usual Pakistani excuses, citing absence of evidence and “lack of cooperation” by India as being responsible for their inability to prosecute the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks. But former chief of Pakistan’s Federal Investigative Agency Tariq Khosa exposed such ploys in an article in the Dawn newspaper in 2015. He was, however, later compelled to retract. Khosa acknowledged that the Commander and Deputy Commander of the 26/11 terrorists were traced and arrested. He averred that the investigations led to the FIA obtaining detailed evidence about the import and transportation from Japan to Lahore, of the fishing trawler used by the terrorists.

    The money trails were followed and linked to an accused in Pakistan, who was arrested. A couple of foreign-based financiers were also brought to trial. The room in Karachi from which the operation was commanded and controlled was located and the communications equipment used retrieved.

    The sheer brazenness of Pakistani denials of involvement was also evident from evidence available in the trial in Chicago of two persons of Pakistani origin, David Coleman Headley (born Daood Sayed Gilani) and Tahawwur Hussain Rana. They received long prison terms and the trial proceedings reveal the extent of Pakistani involvement in the planning and execution of the 26/11 strike. The so-called ‘trial’ of Lakhvi was a farce. The then ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha periodically visited Lakhvi in jail. His wife was allowed freely to meet him and their new baby was born while Lakhvi was in jail. Lakhvi is now a free man and continues his role in the LeT.

    Every time a new ruler emerges in Pakistan, his “friends” in India issue loud calls about why we should immediately enter into a serious dialogue with the new messiah, because of the goodwill towards India that he claims he has. Imran Khan is no exception. People seem to forget that Imran, popularly known as ‘Taliban Khan’, has been elected to office, thanks to the support of the powerful army. Under international economic pressure, the army is now trying to persuade the world that it oozes goodwill for India. We should interact with the military and civilian establishment in Pakistan to first assess how sincere they are in eliminating cross-border terrorism. Imran has realistically recognised that any formal dialogue can commence only after General Elections in India in 2019.

     

    Ambassador G Parthasarathy is a former diplomat and a prolific commentator on Geopolitics. He is a Trustee of TPF. The views expressed are the author’s own,