The Peninsula Foundation

Author: M Matheswaran

  • Using Artificial Intelligence to address Corruption: A proposal for Tamilnadu

    Using Artificial Intelligence to address Corruption: A proposal for Tamilnadu

    Nations must adopt Artificial Intelligence as a mechanism to build transparency, integrity, and trustworthiness, which are necessary to fight corruption. Without effective public scrutiny, the risk of money being lost to corruption and misappropriation was vast. Dr Chris Kpodar, a global Artificial Intelligence Specialist, has advocated the use of artificial intelligence as an anti-corruption tool through the redesigning of systems to address systems that were previously prone to bribery and corruption.

     

    Artificial Intelligence Tools

    Artificial Intelligence has become popular due to its increasing applications in many fields. Recently, IIT Madras opened a course on B.Tech Data Science in Tanzania, demonstrating the popularity of Artificial Intelligence. The history of Artificial Intelligence goes back to the 1950s when computing power was less, and hardware were huge. These days, computing power has increased exponentially along with the miniaturisation of hardware, leading to algorithms being able to compute larger datasets. The field of AI, however, has gone through ups and downs in terms of popularity.

    Researchers have worked on Neural Networks (Figure below), a mathematical model modelled after neurons in the brain, a foundation unit, and one of the foundations of state-of-the-art AI.

    Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, deep learning, and data science are popular terms that describe computing fields that teach a machine how to learn. AI is a catch-all term that broadly means computing systems designed to understand and replicate human intelligence. Machine Learning is a subfield of AI where algorithms are trained on datasets to make predictions or decisions without explicitly being programmed. Deep Learning is a subfield of Machine Learning, which specifically refers to using multi-layers of neural networks to learn from large datasets, mimicking cognition of the neurons in the brain. Recently, the field of AI has resurged in popularity after a popular type of neural network architecture, AlexNET, achieved impressive results in the Image Recognition Challenge in 2012. Since then, neural networks have started to enter into applications in the industry, with colossal research funding mobilised.

    Breakthroughs that can aid Policy Implementation

    There are many types of neural networks, each designed for a particular application. The recent popularity of applications like ChatGPT is due to a neural network called Language Models. Language Models are probability models which ask the question, what is the next best token to generate, given the previous token?

    Two significant breakthroughs led towards ChatGPT, including translating language from one language to another using a machine learning technique called attention mechanism. Secondly, this technique was introduced in transformer-type language models, which led to increased state-of-the-art performance in many tasks in artificial intelligence.

    Transformers, a robust neural network, was introduced in 2017 by Google Researchers in “Attention is All You Need”. This translates into generating human-like text in ChatGPT. Large language models have taken a big step in the technology landscape. As Machine Learning applications are being deployed rapidly, it calls for a governance model for these models, as research in AI models is advancing quickly with innumerable breakthroughs. Earlier in 2019, GPT-2, a Machine Learning model based on transformers, could not solve fundamental mathematical problems such as elucidating numbers from 0-100. Within a year, more advancement in the GPT models led to models being able to perform higher-level scores in SAT exams, GRE, etc. Another breakthrough advancement was the ability of machine-learning programs to generate code, which has increased developer productivity automatically.

     Moreover, many researchers are working on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), and nobody knows precisely when such capabilities might be developed or researched. Researchers have not settled on a convincing definition of AGI agreeable to everyone in the AI research community. The rate of advancement and investment in AI research is staggering, which calls for ethical concerns and governance of these large language models. India is an emerging economy where all sectors are growing rapidly. India’s economy grows nearly 10% yearly, with the services sector making up almost 50% of the entire economy. This translates to the government enjoying high tax revenues from this sector, generating high-paying jobs. Most of the Indian workforce is employed in the industrial and agricultural sectors.

    Using AI to deal with Corruption and enhance Trust

    The primary issue in India has been corruption at all levels of the government, from the panchayat, district level, and state level to central machinery. Corruption is attributed mainly to regulation, rent-seeking behaviour, lack of accountability, and requiring permits from the Government. Indian bureaucratic system and government employees are among the least efficient across sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, metal & mining, aerospace & defence, power and utility, which are also most susceptible to corruption. Due to inefficiency, the productivity of the public sector is low, impacting the local Indian economy.

    India ranks 85 out of 180 countries using the Corruption Index measured in 2022, with close to 62% of Indians encountering corruption, paying bribes to government officials to get the job done. There are many reasons for corruption in India: excessive regulation, a complicated tax system, bureaucratic hurdles, lack of ownership of work, and the public sector being the least productive organisation. Corruption is dishonest or fraudulent conduct by those in power, typically involving bribery. Bribery is defined generally as corrupt solicitation, acceptance, or transfer of value in exchange for official action. In bribery, there are two actors in the transaction, the giver and the receiver; however, corruption involves primarily one actor who abuses the position of power for personal gain. Bribery is a singular act, while corruption might be an ongoing abuse of power to benefit oneself.

    Trust is a critical glue in financial transactions; where trust between individuals is higher, the economic transactions are faster, and the economy grows, with more businesses moving, bringing capital, and increasing the production and exchange of goods. However, when trust is low, businesses hesitate, and the economy either stagnates or declines. High-trust societies like Norway have advanced financial systems, where credit and financial instruments are more developed, compared with lower-trust societies such as Kenya and India, where many financial instruments and capital markets to raise finances are unavailable. Therefore, public policymakers must seek ways to increase trust in their local economies by forming policies conducive to business transactions.

    The real-estate sector in Tamilnadu: a fit case for the use of AI

    Tamil Nadu is India’s second-largest economy and is the most industrialised and urbanised state in India. Real estate is an economic growth engine and a prime mover of monetary transactions. It is a prime financial asset for most Tamils from many social strata. However, real estate in Tamil Nadu is prone to corruption at many levels. One specific popular method is the forgery of land registration documents, which has resulted in a lack of trust among investors at all levels in Tamil Nadu.

    To address this lack of trust, we can use technology tools to increase confidence and empower the public to create an environment of accountability, resulting in greater confidence. Machine Learning can provide algorithms to detect these forgeries and prevent land grabbing. Tools such as identity analysis, document analysis, and transaction pattern analysis can help to provide more accountability. In addition to the above, machine learning offers many methods or combinations of methods that can be used. One advanced way is using transformer-based models, which are the foundation for language models such as BERT and generative Pre-Trained Models for text-based applications. The original documents could be trained using large language models as a baseline to frequently check and find forgeries. Documents can be encoded to compare semantic anomalies between different types of documents.

    Once forgery is detected, it can be automatically sent to civil magistrates or pertinent authorities. Additionally, the recent introduction of Software repository sites allows the public to be informed or notice any change in the status or activity. Customised public repositories based on GitHub might create immense value for Tamil Nadu’s Department of Revenue, create accountability, increase productivity and reduce workload. The Customised public repositories displaying land transaction activity might inform the public of such forgeries, thus creating an environment of greater accountability and trust for the people. Another popular method can be introduced by introducing Computer Vision Algorithms, such as convolutional neural networks combined with BERT, that can validate signatures, document tampering, and time-frames to flag forgeries. This can be done by training original documents with specific algorithms and checking documents with reasonable doubts about forgery.

    Another primary concern in Tamil Nadu’s Government has been people in positions of power in the government or close to financial oversight. They are more prone to corruption, which can be flagged or monitored using graph neural networks, which can map individuals, connections, and economic transactions in a network to flag which individuals are more likely or prone to corruption. Another method to reduce corruption is to remove personal discretion in the process, which Machine Learning can enable to automate the tasks and documents in land registration; digitisation might help reduce corruption. Large Language Models can also be used as classifiers and released to the public to keep accountability on the Tamil Nadu Government’s spending, so the public is aware and personal gain of Government money can be further reduced this way. Another central area of corruption is the tender, the bidding process for government contracts in Tamil Nadu, such as public development works or engineering projects. Tamil Nadu’s tender or bidding process can be made more public, and machine learning algorithms can be used to check if norms, contracts, and procedures are followed to award tender bids for government projects. To save wasteful expenditure, algorithms can check if objective conditions are met, with any deviations flagged and in the public domain. Given any suspicion, the public can file a PIL in Tamil Nadu’s court system.

    We can argue and conclude that with more deployed machine learning tools being part of Tamil Nadu’s State machinery, we can confidently say that corruption can be reduced to more significant levels by releasing all information to the public and creating an environment of greater accountability.

    References:

    1. Russell, Stuart J.; Norvig, Peter. (2021). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach

    2.Bau, D., Elhussein, M., Ford, J. B., Nwanganga, H., & Sühr, T. (n.d.). Governance of AI models. Managing AI risks. https://managing-ai-risks.com/

    1. S. Department of State. (2021). 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: India. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/india/
    1. Devlin, J., Chang, M.-W., Lee, K., & Toutanova, K. (2019). BERT: Pre-training of deep bidirectional transformers for language understanding. In Proceedings of NAACL-HLT (pp. 4171-4186). https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04805
    1. Radford, A., Wu, J., Child, R., Luan, D., Amodei, D., & Sutskever, I. (2019). Language models are unsupervised multitask learners. OpenAI blog, 1(8). https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/
    1. Radford, A., Narasimhan, K., Salimans, T., & Sutskever, I. (2018). Improving language understanding by generative pre-training. OpenAI blog, 12. https://openai.com/blog/language-unsupervised/
    2. Bai, Y., Kadavath, S., Kundu, S., Askell, A., Kernion, J., Jones, A., … Kaplan, J. (2022). Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI feedback. arXiv preprint arXiv:2212.08073. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.08073.pdf,

    https://www.anthropic.com/news/constitutional-ai-harmlessness-from-ai-feedback

    1. Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), Ouyang, L., Wu, J., Jiang, X., Almeida, D., Wainwright, C. L., Mishkin, P., Zhang, C., Agarwal, S., Slama, K., Ray, A., Schulman, J., Hilton, J., Kelton, F., Miller, L., Simens, M., Askell, A., Welinder, P., Christiano, P., Leike, J., & Lowe, R. (2022). Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.02155. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.02155

    Feature Image: modernghana.com

  • India’s rocky path to establishing joint theatre commands

    India’s rocky path to establishing joint theatre commands

    The Indian military has been seeking to build jointness among its services for decades, including through proposals to establish regional joint theatre commands with responsibility for different areas of the subcontinent and beyond. But those efforts hit a roadblock earlier this year when the Indian Air Force (IAF) objected to its capabilities being split across commands and relegated to providing tactical support to land operations. A truly joint Indian military may still be a long way off.


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  • Security through Deterrence and Power Projection

    Security through Deterrence and Power Projection

    Having lost out big time due to short-sighted piecemeal procurements, India’s acquisition process needs an overhaul and improve its track-record. With correct lessons derived and applied diligently, India can truly emerge as a globally competitive defence manufacturer and achieve control over critical technologies.

    This October 8th the IAF completes 90 years of glorious service to the nation. The past nine-decades is a saga of critical contribution to nation-building, warfighting, support to civil administration, air defence, international cooperation and peace keeping, military diplomacy, and deterrence of adversaries. The demand on these roles of the IAF have increased substantially in recent decades. Kargil to Balakot and Ladakh exemplify the value of the IAF as a critical tool of state power. In the 21st century, aerospace power has emerged as the critical tool of deterrence and power projection. The ability of the IAF to provide an array of choices to the national leadership depends on its force structure and the pace of modernisation. IAF’s 100th anniversary is just ten years away and there are, as Robert Frost said, miles to go. Modernisation is a continuous process. Sustaining the optimal force structure despite the delays of modernisation should remain the paramount task.

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  • India’s Fighter Aircraft Needs: Strategies in the face of Geopolitical and Economic Crisis

    India’s Fighter Aircraft Needs: Strategies in the face of Geopolitical and Economic Crisis

    Having lost out big time due to short-sighted piecemeal procurements, India’s acquisition process needs an overhaul and improve its track-record. With correct lessons derived and applied diligently, India can truly emerge as a globally competitive defence manufacturer and achieve control over critical technologies

    The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth month, has major lessons for India and the rest of the world, not only in terms of the future of war and military operations but more importantly on the importance of military capability and technological sovereignty. The war will be studied for its various aspects: the role and effectiveness of air dominance and air defence, Ukrainian use of anti-tank missiles and shoulder-fired missiles, anti-shipping missiles, heavy use of artillery, urban warfare, Russia’s use of long-range and hypersonic precision missiles, it’s artillery dominated grinding nature of the land campaign, use of drones by both sides, communications and the use of satellite networks, and the overbearing influence of ISR. The geopolitical fall-out of the war on India needs to be considered carefully. The comprehensive and large-scale sanctions imposed on Russia are already resulting in a multi-dimensional impact on the rest of the world.

    The USA and its allies have pressurised India to not only denounce Russia’s military action against Ukraine but to go along with their sanctions by severing India’s military armament and energy relationship with Russia. When analysed carefully, we can see that the real objective of their strategy is to severe economic and military-industrial relations of the former Soviet republics with Russia and incorporate them into the western economic system. This has been done successfully in countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Baltic states, Romania, and now is being attempted in Ukraine. A sanction is an important tool for this strategy. While the war is on in Europe, India’s lucrative defence market has been the primary objective of this strategy ever since 2014 and later when CAATSA was introduced. India has been careful to safeguard its strategic relations with not only Russia but the US and Western Europe as well. The US has gone on record to say that its objective is to wean India away from its reliance on military imports from Russia. The Ukrainian crisis has given a sense of urgency to the USA about its India strategy.

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  • China’s Growing Space Power Significant for India

    China’s Growing Space Power Significant for India

    Space has become an arena of competition for power and influence. Big powers have invested heavily in their military space capabilities. Amid an accelerated militarisation of space, China’s space capabilities have grown by leaps and bounds. China has identified Space as a critical domain in the perspective of its global ambitions. The rapid growth in China’s Space capabilities and its articulated ambitions are of significant importance to India’s Space security and national interests.

    Space has become an enormously important facet of our daily life. The increasing utility and critical need for space-based services have made it a rapidly-growing economic and technological arena. Space capabilities now symbolise a nation-state’s growing economic power. Innovation and disruptive technologies are now characterising the growth of the space industry, both in the private and public sectors. In all this, play the most important role as space has become an arena of competition for power and influence.

    Traditionally, military uses of space technologies have revolved around advanced communication, precise navigation, improved Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, and meteorology. Further developments have enabled these technologies to be used in Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), advanced sensors, early warning systems, and anti-satellite (ASAT) systems.

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  • IAF’s Force Structure: Strategy for Overcoming the Crisis

    IAF’s Force Structure: Strategy for Overcoming the Crisis

    Aligned with its national security interests, India’s strong geostrategic role-play, amidst the changing world order as a rising military power, aerospace power in particular must be rooted in the Indian industry.

    The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has many cautions for India. War at anytime and anywhere is a human catastrophe and therefore, all efforts to prevent or stop war should not be spared. While the American-led side wants India to take a stand in favour of their position, the Russian side is appreciative of India’s neutral stand. Recent visits by leaders from the USA, UK, EU, and Japan have emphasised the need for India to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

    What is of concern, however, is the fact that the USA and others stressing their view that India’s excessive dependence on Russia for its military equipment is the reason for its refusal to support their sanctions on Russia. Various officials from the US State Department and the DOD have openly advocated their objective of weaning India’s defence imports from Russia. There lies the real issue.

    India’s defence market is too huge and attractive for Western defence industries, and hence, it is the focus of strategic dialogues of many of these countries with India.

    India’s defence market is too huge and attractive for Western defence industries, and hence, it is the focus of strategic dialogues of many of these countries with India. India has diversified its military procurements in the last three decades to ensure it does not become vulnerable to a single source supply. As a result, India’s defence supplies from Russia, which was as high as 70-75% in the early 2000s came down to a current level of 50-55%. The US has been the biggest gainer in this diversification, garnering nearly $ 22 billion in sales to India in the last 15 years to emerge as its number 1 supplier. The Ukraine conflict and the resultant sanctions are being used by the USA to pressurise India to reduce its imports from Russia. The real objective is to ensure the US and its European allies replace Russia as India’s major if not exclusive supplier of defence equipment. The threat of CAATSA on India’s S-400 air defence missile deal with Russia is a prime example. The crux of the India-USA strategic partnership is really about capturing India’s defence market for the Military-Industrial Complex of the USA.

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  • The Need for National Aerospace Strategy

    The Need for National Aerospace Strategy

    India needs a comprehensive and coherent national aerospace strategy to accelerate indigenous development in the rapidly evolving geopolitical environment.

    As the 2022 edition of the ‘DefExpo’ gets underway in a few days, it is important to recognise the fact India’s ‘Defence and Aerospace’ sector is growing significantly, aided by the Government’s policy initiatives such as ‘Make in India’ that have created opportunities for many joint ventures with international companies. Platforms like the ‘DefExpo’ and ‘Aero India’ are providing the necessary boost and visibility to Indian manufacturing.

    Recent announcements on the agreement with the Philippines to export ‘BRAHMOS’ missile is a significant achievement. Similarly, last week’s news that DRDO and SAFRAN will jointly develop the 125 KN engine for the AMCA is major news that could be transformational if the collaboration is well crafted keeping Indian interests in perspective. However, one must keep in mind that much work needs to be done beyond the optics of a defence exhibition. Translating the MoUs into real JVs is a big challenge. Unless the Indian defence industry breaks into the export market in a big way by becoming part of the global supply, the challenges to the Indian industry will continue to be significant.

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  • India, the Sino-US Rivalry, and the post-pandemic World Order

    India, the Sino-US Rivalry, and the post-pandemic World Order

    India has a vital stake in the geopolitical contest between the US and China, particularly in the context of the rising Sino-Indian rivalry. India’s strategies, therefore, must focus on ensuring its security and its freedom of action in global affairs. It will also need to play an active role in reforming the world to more equitable and multipolar governance.

    The global disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic that engulfed the world at the end of 2019 and continues to this day is the biggest economic, political, and technological disruption since the Second World War. The pandemic has exposed the serious deficiencies in national healthcare systems in all countries, developed and developing. More importantly, the pandemic has raised questions on the relevance and effectiveness of the current world order, about the future of international organisations and multilateral frameworks, and poses challenges to international political and economic relations.


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  • Quad 2.0: Can it be a win-win for the four Democracies

    Quad 2.0: Can it be a win-win for the four Democracies

    China’s GDP expanded from USD 6 trillion in 2010 to USD 14.3 trillion in 2019. It has had exponential growth over the last three decades, with an average GDP growth rate of 9.23% from 1989 to 2020. Although the impact of the COVID pandemic pushed its GDP into decline and negative (-6.80%) in the first quarter of 2020, it has rebounded with a growth of 5% in the third quarter. It’s military spending, officially, is more than three times that of India, unofficially maybe five times or more. China has become one of the key players in the Indo-Pacific as a significant part of its economic activities depend on this region.

    The Indo-Pacific has replaced the Trans-Atlantic as the epicentre of global politics. Its importance to the global order is multifarious. In economic terms, one half of the world’s commercial influx goes through the Indo-Pacific sea routes and the Indian Ocean carries two-thirds of global oil shipments. Besides, a few of the biggest military spenders are part of the region. China’s hostile actions and policies have agitated the US, Japan, Australia and India. A shared concern over the expansion of China’s political and military clout was fundamental to the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad 2.0), on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, in 2017.

    Quad is seen as cooperation between four large democracies that share the idea of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific

    There is growing speculation over what the re-emergence of the Quad means. On the one hand, it is seen as cooperation between four large democracies that share the idea of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific; on the other, a strategic alliance towards keeping China’s assertive actions in check.

    The Quad: Overcoming Intransigence

    The Quad is a mechanism that enables a dialogue on regional security issues between the four countries. Its revival, this year, reflects an intersection of strategic interests: that of an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order. The Quad came together in November for the naval exercise – Exercise Malabar – in two phases, in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The exercise, in its 24th edition, is the biggest so far and has sent significant strategic signalling to China.

    The Quad should be considered less as a formal alliance and more as a mechanism built on existing bilateral and trilateral partnerships between the four countries. It first emerged as a cooperative response to the 2004 tsunami, when the four navies were involved in providing humanitarian and disaster relief. Despite strong support from Japan and the US to formalise the group, it disbanded with Australia and India backing out in 2007, due to concerns about China’s reaction to the grouping. This gave rise to multilateral partnerships among the four countries.

    Between the four democracies, there are three trilateral and six bilateral partnerships. Trilaterally, Japan, India and Australia first came together in 2015 to discuss shared concerns over maritime security in the Indo-Pacific Region and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. More recently, the three countries agreed to develop a supply chain resilience program for the Indo-Pacific Region amid growing recognition of their excessive, economic reliance on China.

    Bilaterally, the US and India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) on October 27 that gives India access to American geospatial intelligence that will be useful for precision guidance of its missiles. Further, India-Australia ties have strengthened over the last few years with their initial 2+2 dialogue in 2017 and with Australian participation in India’s Milan exercise in 2018, focusing on interoperability between navies in the region.

    China and the Quad

    Over the years, the Indo-Pacific has emerged as a region of strategic importance. As China expands into the region, its actions have created tensions with the Quad members.

    Sino-Indian relations:  India-China relations have touched rock-bottom since the clashes on the LAC in Ladakh.  China’s intrusions and violations along the LAC have been backed up by significant massing of PLA forces, for the first time in 40 years. India’s strong actions at the LAC and subsequent sanctions and banning of Chinese IT applications have signalled that India is not shy of escalating its response. China’s actions are seen as part of its coercive strategy to India’s refusal to back China on BRI, and its vehement opposition to CPEC. It sees India’s closeness to the USA and its coordination in the Quad as a threat to China’s strategic interests.

    China’s increasing influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has raised India’s concerns. It has always been wary of ties between Beijing and Islamabad, which intensified with the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2013. The Chinese-operated Gwadar port off the Arabian Sea in Pakistan, which can be used by the Chinese navy to establish a submarine presence in the region, did not rest well with India. Such a port would also help China with its ‘Malacca Dilemma’. Other ports of such concern are Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukphyu in Myanmar. Though China claims these ports are of economic significance, these are also militarily strategic ports that give it an advantage in the IOR.

    In light of these issues, a revived and active Quad will benefit India’s strategic interests. The partnership could affect China in two ways. First, China would face increased competition in the IOR from India that now works with strong allies. Second, with the recent imposition of the technology ban, China stands to lose a large market for its products.

     Japan-China relations: Over the past few years, the situation in the South China Sea (SCS) has worsened with China’s land reclamation activities and militarisation of islands. Japan sees the South China Sea as key to its security because of its crucial sea lanes vital to its trade and economic health. It is also wary of China’s ability to influence the energy supply chains, which East Asia is dependent on, and the PLA’s movement in the Indo-Pacific region that could affect regional security.

    Despite its renewed trade with China and the recent signing of the RCEP, increased tensions in the SCS has forced Japan to support revival of the Quad. China’s increased naval and air activities in the South China Sea makes the Quad and its possible expansion into Quad Plus even more relevant for Japan.

    China-Australia relations: Australia backed out of the Quad in 2007 primarily because it was concerned about how China would view it, and the possible impact it might have on their bilateral trade. By 2017, China became Australia’s top export destination, and this trend has continued through 2019, pushing Australia into a dangerous economic dependency with China. Further, Australia’s 2016 White Paper called out China for its coercive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, identifying the South China Sea and the Southern Pacific as vital strategic regions.

    Australia’s economic dependence on China is high and this is unlikely to change despite the strong statements from prime minister Morrison.  Australia’s strong stand against China is also seen as emanating from American pressure. Australia actively supports Quad as it sees an increasingly powerful China working to change the world order. Australia is also a member of the newly signed RCEP, the new economic grouping that will be dominated by China. While Australia has hedged its economic interests by signing the RCEP, its strategic and security priorities are linked to the Quad.

    China-US relations:  China’s rising military power is now seen as a threat to American power and the liberal world order. Since 2011, American strategies and policies have focussed more on the Indo-Pacific. This shift in focus has strengthened its ties with Japan, Australia and India. Tensions between the US and China have increased since then and the 2018 trade war not only aggravated their relations but also kept the rest of the world on an edge.

    With a strong Quad partnership, the US expects to regain and strengthen its influence in the Indo-Pacific. For China already hit hard by the US trade war, more setbacks will accentuate the problems. Moreover, with a more focused Quad led by the US, China’s efforts to project its power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region will come under pressure.

     Conclusion

     A few aspects about the Quad remain unclear. First, its intent is still uncertain because the respective countries have to evaluate their relations with China if they want to make the bloc official. Second, if it were to be official, to what extent would it serve the interests of the member countries? Third, is the Quad a concert of democracies to contain China? Last, will it coordinate with other members in the Indo-Pacific region, that is will Quad translate into Quad Plus?

    China’s actions have managed to bring the four countries closer.  China, however, has scored a success when the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the world’s largest plurilateral trade agreement was signed on November 15th. Both Japan and Australia are members of the RCEP. Many see this as a setback for India and America, and an important building block in a new world order, in which China calls the shots all over Asia. It puts in doubt the viability of SCRI (Supply Chain Resilience Initiative), an effort by Quad members to create an alternative to Chinese domination of supply chains.

    The nature of China’s challenge to the global order and the Indo-Pacific is geoeconomics in design, as evidenced by its Belt and Road Initiative and its recent success in RCEP. The Quad will need to go beyond security cooperation.

    While security and military cooperation will help in checking China’s aggressive approach, it must be recognised that this alone will be an incomplete strategy. The nature of China’s challenge to the global order and the Indo-Pacific is geoeconomics in design, as evidenced by its Belt and Road Initiative and its recent success in RCEP. The Quad will need to go beyond security cooperation.

    The conclusion of RCEP maybe China’s gain, but it is important to recognise the fact that ASEAN is the main driver of RCEP. In attempting to balance China, ASEAN and Japan have kept the door open for India to re-join the RCEP. It is possible that the US, under the Biden presidency, may revive the TPP (now proposed by Japan as CATPP, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership), which could balance the RCEP. The Quad, in this context, will continue to be very relevant for peace and security in the Indo-Pacific.

     

  • A third aircraft carrier for India: Budget versus necessity

    A third aircraft carrier for India: Budget versus necessity

    Category: Defence Policy, Military Power & Modernisation

    Title: A Third Aircraft Carrier for India: Budget vs necessity

    Author: M Matheswaran  02.06.2020

    The Indian military is undergoing what may be its most significant reorganisation since India’s independence, with considerable implications for its future strategic posture. One important issue that has been brought to the fore is the role of the Indian Navy as a regional power projection force built around three aircraft carriers. The government’s decision on this issue will have significant implications for the region.


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