The Peninsula Foundation

Tag: Economy

  • GDP data for Q3 2023–24: The mystery of a robust growth

    GDP data for Q3 2023–24: The mystery of a robust growth

    Recently released GDP figures have sprung a surprise, baffled experts and overturned the government’s own data and projections. What could be the reason

    GROSS Domestic Product (GDP) figures have sprung a surprise— showing a growth of 8.4 percent in Quarter 3 of 2023–24, on top of the previous two quarter’s growth of 8.2 percent and 8.1 percent.

    The annual growth for 2023–24 is projected at 7.6 percent. But given the growth rates in the first three quarters, it is likely to be above 8 percent, unless the economy decelerates sharply in Q4, of which there is little sign.

    The surprise

    Experts are embarrassed that how could they be so far off. In December 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had upped its projected growth rate from 6.5 percent to 7 percent.

    Various foreign credit rating agencies had revised the expected growth rate to only around 6.5 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected a 6.3 percent rate of growth.


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  • Analyzing the Union Budget 2023-24 to Unravel its Underlying Strategy

    Analyzing the Union Budget 2023-24 to Unravel its Underlying Strategy

    Introduction

    Any budget is complex consisting of many things of varying importance. Often, people focus on things of their direct interest but miss the wider implications that affect them indirectly and may undo any benefit they may get directly. Thus, it is not only important to look at the trees but also the forest. So, it is important to analyse the Macroeconomic strategy of the budget.

    Further, the budget is based on three things. First, analysis of the current economic situation, second, the scenario likely to prevail in the coming year and finally, what direction policy makers may want to give to the economy. It also needs to be kept in mind that there are lags. Announcements do not mean that what is being said will immediately happen. Even after implementation begins, it takes time for the results to follow. But it is always possible that the expected results may not follow due to a variety of reasons.

    Thus, a budget needs to be analysed both for its short term and long term impact. Any contradictions between the short and the long term policies leads to their failure. For the country, the long term is critical but politically the ruling party may find the short terms gains more compelling. This article attempted to present an analysis of the Union Budget 2023-24 with these features in mind.

    Current Economic Challenges

    There are internal and external challenges facing the economy. Externally, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the `New Cold War’ are adding to India’s problems. Nothing much can be done with regard to these except making the economy more resilient. A stronger economy will be able to better deal with the external challenges.

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  • U.S. Hegemony and its Perils

    U.S. Hegemony and its Perils

    This analytical report on the perils of US hegemony was released by China on the 20th of February 2023. It is evident that much of the world is now alienated by the USA and the West. This is particularly so after the Ukraine-Russia conflict that erupted a year ago. The majority of the world remains non-commital but certainly does not support the US or Ukraine in this conflict nor do they condemn Russia. In effect, the non-western world has openly indicated that this unnecessary war is caused by the aggressive actions of NATO and the US to provoke Russia. The constant interventions and wars waged by the US and NATO in the name of democracy and disregarding the UN are now being questioned. China has cleverly utilised this sentiment to time its publication. The paper is very well analysed, crisply argued, and has flagged real questions to the world community. In short, the paper implies that the US and its allies pose the gravest threat to global stability and peace, and more so to the sovereignty of all countries.

    This paper was published earlier in fmprc.gov.cn

     

    Introduction

    Since becoming the world’s most powerful country after the two world wars and the Cold War, the United States has acted more boldly to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, pursue, maintain and abuse hegemony, advance subversion and infiltration, and willfully wage wars, bringing harm to the international community.

    The United States has developed a hegemonic playbook to stage “colour revolutions,” instigate regional disputes and even directly launch wars under the guise of promoting democracy, freedom and human rights. Clinging to the Cold War mentality, the United States has ramped up bloc politics and stoked conflict and confrontation. It has overstretched the concept of national security, abused export controls and forced unilateral sanctions upon others. It has taken a selective approach to international law and rules, utilizing or discarding them as it sees fit, and has sought to impose rules that serve its own interests in the name of upholding a “rules-based international order.”

    This report, by presenting the relevant facts, seeks to expose the U.S. abuse of hegemony in the political, military, economic, financial, technological and cultural fields and to draw greater international attention to the perils of the U.S. practices to world peace and stability and the well-being of all peoples.

    I. Political Hegemony – Throwing Its Weight Around

    The United States has long been attempting to mould other countries and the world order with its own values and political system in the name of promoting democracy and human rights.

    ◆ Instances of U.S. interference in other countries’ internal affairs abound. In the name of “promoting democracy,” the United States practised a “Neo-Monroe Doctrine” in Latin America, instigated “colour revolutions” in Eurasia, and orchestrated the “Arab Spring” in West Asia and North Africa, bringing chaos and disaster to many countries.

    In 1823, the United States announced the Monroe Doctrine. While touting an “America for the Americans,” what it truly wanted was an “America for the United States.”

    Since then, the policies of successive U.S. governments toward Latin America and the Caribbean Region have been riddled with political interference, military intervention and regime subversion. From its 61-year hostility toward and blockade of Cuba to its overthrow of the Allende government of Chile, U.S. policy on this region has been built on one maxim-those who submit will prosper; those who resist shall perish.

    The year 2003 marked the beginning of a succession of “colour revolutions” – the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia, the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine and the “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Department of State openly admitted playing a “central role” in these “regime changes.” The United States also interfered in the internal affairs of the Philippines, ousting President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1986 and President Joseph Estrada in 2001 through the so-called “People Power Revolutions.”

    In January 2023, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo released his new book Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love. He revealed in it that the United States had plotted to intervene in Venezuela. The plan was to force the Maduro government to reach an agreement with the opposition, deprive Venezuela of its ability to sell oil and gold for foreign exchange, exert high pressure on its economy, and influence the 2018 presidential election.

    ◆ The U.S. exercises double standards on international rules. Placing its self-interest first, the United States has walked away from international treaties and organizations and put its domestic law above international law. In April 2017, the Trump administration announced that it would cut off all U.S. funding to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) with the excuse that the organization “supports, or participates in the management of a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization.” The United States quit UNESCO twice in 1984 and 2017. In 2017, it announced leaving the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2018, it announced its exit from the UN Human Rights Council, citing the organization’s “bias” against Israel and failure to protect human rights effectively. In 2019, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty to seek the unfettered development of advanced weapons. In 2020, it announced pulling out of the Treaty on Open Skies.

    The United States has also been a stumbling block to biological arms control by opposing negotiations on a verification protocol for the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and impeding international verification of countries’ activities relating to biological weapons. As the only country in possession of a chemical weapons stockpile, the United States has repeatedly delayed the destruction of chemical weapons and remained reluctant in fulfilling its obligations. It has become the biggest obstacle to realizing “a world free of chemical weapons.”

    ◆ The United States is piecing together small blocs through its alliance system. It has been forcing an “Indo-Pacific Strategy” onto the Asia-Pacific region, assembling exclusive clubs like the Five Eyes, the Quad and AUKUS, and forcing regional countries to take sides. Such practices are essentially meant to create division in the region, stoke confrontation and undermine peace.

    ◆ The U.S. arbitrarily passes judgment on democracy in other countries and fabricates a false narrative of “democracy versus authoritarianism” to incite estrangement, division, rivalry and confrontation. In December 2021, the United States hosted the first “Summit for Democracy,” which drew criticism and opposition from many countries for making a mockery of the spirit of democracy and dividing the world. In March 2023, the United States will host another “Summit for Democracy,” which remains unwelcome and will again find no support.

    II. Military Hegemony – Wanton Use of Force

    The history of the United States is characterized by violence and expansion. Since it gained independence in 1776, the United States has constantly sought expansion by force: it slaughtered Indians, invaded Canada, waged a war against Mexico, instigated the American-Spanish War, and annexed Hawaii. After World War II, the wars either provoked or launched by the United States included the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, the War in Afghanistan, the Iraq War, the Libyan War and the Syrian War, abusing its military hegemony to pave the way for expansionist objectives. In recent years, the U.S. average annual military budget has exceeded $700 billion, accounting for 40 percent of the world’s total, more than the 15 countries behind it combined. The United States has about 800 overseas military bases, with 173,000 troops deployed in 159 countries.

    According to the book America Invades: How We’ve Invaded or been Militarily Involved with almost Every Country on Earth, the United States has fought or been militarily involved with almost all the 190-odd countries recognized by the United Nations with only three exceptions. The three countries were “spared” because the United States did not find them on the map.

    ◆ As former U.S. President Jimmy Carter put it, the United States is undoubtedly the most warlike nation in the history of the world. According to a Tufts University report, “Introducing the Military Intervention Project: A new Dataset on U.S. Military Interventions, 1776-2019,” the United States undertook nearly 400 military interventions globally between those years, 34 percent of which were in Latin America and the Caribbean, 23 percent in East Asia and the Pacific, 14 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 13 percent in Europe. Currently, its military intervention in the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa is on the rise.

    Alex Lo, a South China Morning Post columnist, pointed out that the United States has rarely distinguished between diplomacy and war since its founding. It overthrew democratically elected governments in many developing countries in the 20th century and immediately replaced them with pro-American puppet regimes. Today, in Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Pakistan and Yemen, the United States is repeating its old tactics of waging proxy, low-intensity, and drone wars.

    ◆ U.S. military hegemony has caused humanitarian tragedies. Since 2001, the wars and military operations launched by the United States in the name of fighting terrorism have claimed over 900,000 lives, with some 335,000 of them civilians, injured millions and displaced tens of millions. The 2003 Iraq War resulted in some 200,000 to 250,000 civilian deaths, including over 16,000 directly killed by the U.S. military, and left more than a million homeless.

    The United States has created 37 million refugees around the world. Since 2012, the number of Syrian refugees alone has increased tenfold. Between 2016 and 2019, 33,584 civilian deaths were documented in the Syrian fighting, including 3,833 killed by U.S.-led coalition bombings, half of them women and children. The Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) reported on November 9, 2018, that the air strikes launched by U.S. forces on Raqqa alone killed 1,600 Syrian civilians.

    The two-decade-long war in Afghanistan devastated the country. A total of 47,000 Afghan civilians and 66,000 to 69,000 Afghan soldiers and police officers unrelated to the September 11 attacks were killed in U.S. military operations, and more than 10 million people were displaced. The war in Afghanistan destroyed the foundation of economic development there and plunged the Afghan people into destitution. After the “Kabul debacle” in 2021, the United States announced that it would freeze some 9.5 billion dollars in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank, a move considered “pure looting.”

    In September 2022, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu commented at a rally that the United States has waged a proxy war in Syria, turned Afghanistan into an opium field and heroin factory, thrown Pakistan into turmoil, and left Libya in incessant civil unrest. The United States does whatever it takes to rob and enslave the people of any country with underground resources.

    The United States has also adopted appalling methods in war. During the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, the War in Afghanistan and the Iraq War, the United States used massive quantities of chemical and biological weapons as well as cluster bombs, fuel-air bombs, graphite bombs and depleted uranium bombs, causing enormous damage on civilian facilities, countless civilian casualties and lasting environmental pollution.

    III. Economic Hegemony – Looting and Exploitation

    After World War II, the United States led efforts to set up the Bretton Woods System, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which, together with the Marshall Plan, formed the international monetary system centred around the U.S. dollar. In addition, the United States has established institutional hegemony in the international economic and financial sector by manipulating the weighted voting systems, rules and arrangements of international organizations, including “approval by 85 percent majority” and its domestic trade laws and regulations. By taking advantage of the dollar’s status as the major international reserve currency, the United States is basically collecting “seigniorage” from around the world; and using its control over international organizations, it coerces other countries into serving America’s political and economic strategy.

    ◆ The United States exploits the world’s wealth with the help of “seigniorage.” It costs only about 17 cents to produce a $100 bill, but other countries had to pony up $100 worth of actual goods in order to obtain one. It was pointed out more than half a century ago that the United States enjoyed exorbitant privilege and deficit without tears created by its dollar and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations.

    ◆ The hegemony of the U.S. dollar is the main source of instability and uncertainty in the world economy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States abused its global financial hegemony and injected trillions of dollars into the global market, leaving other countries, especially emerging economies, to pay the price. In 2022, the Fed ended its ultra-easy monetary policy and turned to aggressive interest rate hikes, causing turmoil in the international financial market and substantial depreciation of other currencies, such as the euro, many of which dropped to a 20-year low. As a result, a large number of developing countries were challenged by high inflation, currency depreciation and capital outflows. This was exactly what Nixon’s secretary of the treasury, John Connally, once remarked, with self-satisfaction yet sharp precision, “The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem.”

    ◆ With its control over international economic and financial organizations, the United States imposes additional conditions for assisting other countries. In order to reduce obstacles to U.S. capital inflow and speculation, the recipient countries are required to advance financial liberalization and open up financial markets so that their economic policies would fall in line with America’s strategy. According to the Review of International Political Economy, along with the 1,550 debt relief programs extended by the IMF to its 131 member countries from 1985 to 2014, as many as 55,465 additional political conditions had been attached.

    ◆ The United States willfully suppresses its opponents with economic coercion. In the 1980s, to eliminate the economic threat posed by Japan and control and use the latter in service of America’s strategic goal of confronting the Soviet Union and dominating the world, the United States leveraged its hegemonic financial power against Japan and concluded the Plaza Accord. As a result, the yen was pushed up, and Japan was pressed to open up its financial market and reform its financial system. The Plaza Accord dealt a heavy blow to the growth momentum of the Japanese economy, leaving Japan to what was later called “three lost decades.”

    ◆ America’s economic and financial hegemony has become a geopolitical weapon. Doubling down on unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction,” the United States has enacted such domestic laws as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, and the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, and introduced a series of executive orders to sanction specific countries, organizations or individuals. Statistics show that U.S. sanctions against foreign entities increased by 933 percent from 2000 to 2021. The Trump administration alone has imposed more than 3,900 sanctions, which means three sanctions per day. So far, the United States had or has imposed economic sanctions on nearly 40 countries across the world, including Cuba, China, Russia, the DPRK, Iran and Venezuela, affecting nearly half of the world’s population. “The United States of America” has turned itself into “the United States of Sanctions.” And “long-arm jurisdiction” has been reduced to nothing but a tool for the United States to use its means of state power to suppress economic competitors and interfere in normal international business. This is a serious departure from the principles of a liberal market economy that the United States has long boasted.

    IV. Technological Hegemony – Monopoly and Suppression

    The United States seeks to deter other countries’ scientific, technological and economic development by wielding monopoly power, suppression measures and technology restrictions in high-tech fields.

    ◆ The United States monopolizes intellectual property in the name of protection. Taking advantage of the weak position of other countries, especially developing ones, on intellectual property rights and the institutional vacancy in relevant fields, the United States reaps excessive profits through monopoly. In 1994, the United States pushed forward the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), forcing the Americanized process and standards in intellectual property protection in an attempt to solidify its monopoly on technology.

    In the 1980s, to contain the development of Japan’s semiconductor industry, the United States launched the “301” investigation, built bargaining power in bilateral negotiations through multilateral agreements, threatened to label Japan as conducting unfair trade, and imposed retaliatory tariffs, forcing Japan to sign the U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Agreement. As a result, Japanese semiconductor enterprises were almost completely driven out of global competition, and their market share dropped from 50 percent to 10 percent. Meanwhile, with the support of the U.S. government, a large number of U.S. semiconductor enterprises took the opportunity and grabbed a larger market share.

    ◆ The United States politicizes and weaponizes technological issues and uses them as ideological tools. Overstretching the concept of national security, the United States mobilized state power to suppress and sanction Chinese company Huawei, restricted the entry of Huawei products into the U.S. market, cut off its supply of chips and operating systems, and coerced other countries to ban Huawei from undertaking local 5G network construction. It even talked Canada into unwarrantedly detaining Huawei’s CFO, Meng Wanzhou, for nearly three years.

    The United States has fabricated a slew of excuses to clamp down on China’s high-tech enterprises with global competitiveness and has put more than 1,000 Chinese enterprises on sanction lists. In addition, the United States has also imposed controls on biotechnology, artificial intelligence and other high-end technologies, reinforced export restrictions, tightened investment screening, suppressed Chinese social media apps such as TikTok and WeChat, and lobbied the Netherlands and Japan to restrict exports of chips and related equipment or technology to China.

    The United States has also practised double standards in its policy on China-related technological professionals. To sideline and suppress Chinese researchers, since June 2018, visa validity has been shortened for Chinese students majoring in certain high-tech-related disciplines, repeated cases have occurred where Chinese scholars and students going to the United States for exchange programs and study were unjustifiably denied and harassed, and large-scale investigation on Chinese scholars working in the United States was carried out.

    ◆ The United States solidifies its technological monopoly in the name of protecting democracy. By building small blocs of technology, such as the “chips alliance” and “clean network,” the United States has put “democracy” and “human rights” labels on high technology and turned technological issues into political and ideological issues to fabricate excuses for its technological blockade against other countries. In May 2019, the United States enlisted 32 countries to the Prague 5G Security Conference in the Czech Republic and issued the Prague Proposal in an attempt to exclude China’s 5G products. In April 2020, then U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the “5G clean path,” a plan designed to build a technological alliance in the 5G field with partners bonded by their shared ideology on democracy and the need to protect “cyber security.” The measures, in essence, are the U.S. attempts to maintain its technological hegemony through technological alliances.

    ◆ The United States abuses its technological hegemony by carrying out cyberattacks and eavesdropping. The United States has long been notorious as an “empire of hackers,” blamed for its rampant acts of cyber theft around the world. It has all kinds of means to enforce pervasive cyberattacks and surveillance, including using analogue base station signals to access mobile phones for data theft, manipulating mobile apps, infiltrating cloud servers, and stealing through undersea cables. The list goes on.

    U.S. surveillance is indiscriminate. All can be targets of its surveillance, be they rivals or allies, even leaders of allied countries such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and several French Presidents. Cyber surveillance and attacks launched by the United States, such as “Prism,” “Dirtbox,” “Irritant Horn” and “Telescreen Operation,” are all proof that the United States is closely monitoring its allies and partners. Such eavesdropping on allies and partners has already caused worldwide outrage. Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, a website that has exposed U.S. surveillance programs, said, “Do not expect a global surveillance superpower to act with honour or respect. There is only one rule: There are no rules.”

    V. Cultural Hegemony – Spreading False Narratives

    The global expansion of American culture is an important part of its external strategy. The United States has often used cultural tools to strengthen and maintain its hegemony in the world.

    ◆ The United States embeds American values in its products, such as movies. American values and lifestyle are tied to its movies, TV shows, publications, media content and programs by government-funded non-profit cultural institutions. It thus shapes a cultural and public opinion space in which American culture reigns and maintains cultural hegemony. In his article “The Americanization of the World,” John Yemma, an American scholar, exposed the real weapons in U.S. cultural expansion, Hollywood, the image design factories on Madison Avenue and the production lines of Mattel Company and Coca-Cola.

    There are various vehicles the United States uses to keep its cultural hegemony. American movies are the most used; they now occupy more than 70 percent of the world’s market share. The United States skillfully exploits its cultural diversity to appeal to various ethnicities. When Hollywood movies descend on the world, they scream the American values tied to them.

    ◆ American cultural hegemony not only shows itself in “direct intervention” but also in “media infiltration” and as “a trumpet for the world.” U.S.-dominated Western media has a particularly important role in shaping global public opinion in favour of U.S. meddling in the internal affairs of other countries.

    The U.S. government strictly censors all social media companies and demands their obedience. Twitter CEO Elon Musk admitted on December 27, 2022, that all social media platforms work with the U.S. government to censor content, reported Fox Business Network. Public opinion in the United States is subject to government intervention to restrict all unfavourable remarks. Google often makes pages disappear.

    The U.S. Department of Defense manipulates social media. In December 2022, The Intercept, an independent U.S. investigative website, revealed that in July 2017, U.S. Central Command official Nathaniel Kahler instructed Twitter’s public policy team to augment the presence of 52 Arabic-language accounts on a list he sent, six of which were to be given priority. One of the six was dedicated to justifying U.S. drone attacks in Yemen, such as by claiming that the attacks were precise and killed only terrorists, not civilians. Following Kahler’s directive, Twitter put those Arabic-language accounts on a “white list” to amplify certain messages.

    ◆The United States practices double standards on the freedom of the press. It brutally suppresses and silences the media of other countries by various means. The United States and Europe bar mainstream Russian media, such as Russia Today and Sputnik, from their countries. Platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube openly restrict official accounts of Russia. Netflix, Apple and Google have removed Russian channels and applications from their services and app stores. Unprecedented draconian censorship is imposed on Russia-related content.

    ◆The United States abuses its cultural hegemony to instigate “peaceful evolution” in socialist countries. It sets up news media and cultural outfits targeting socialist countries. It pours staggering amounts of public funds into radio and TV networks to support their ideological infiltration, and these mouthpieces bombard socialist countries in dozens of languages with inflammatory propaganda day and night.

    The United States uses misinformation as a spear to attack other countries and has built an industrial chain around it; there are groups and individuals making up stories and peddling them worldwide to mislead public opinion with the support of nearly limitless financial resources.

    Conclusion

    While a just cause wins its champion-wide support, an unjust one condemns its pursuer to be an outcast. The hegemonic, domineering, and bullying practices of using strength to intimidate the weak, taking from others by force and subterfuge, and playing zero-sum games are exerting grave harm. The historical trends of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit are unstoppable. The United States has been overriding truth with its power and trampling justice to serve self-interest. These unilateral, egoistic and regressive hegemonic practices have drawn growing, intense criticism and opposition from the international community.

    Countries need to respect each other and treat each other as equals. Big countries should behave in a manner befitting their status and take the lead in pursuing a new model of state-to-state relations featuring dialogue and partnership, not confrontation or alliance. China opposes all forms of hegemonism and power politics and rejects interference in other countries internal affairs. The United States must conduct serious soul-searching. It must critically examine what it has done, let go of its arrogance and prejudice, and quit its hegemonic, domineering and bullying practices.

    Feature Image: Photograph by M Matheswaran

    Cartoon: canadiandimensions.com    Caricature showing Uncle Sam lecturing four children labelled Phillippines (who appears similar to Phillippine leader Emilio Aguinaldo), Hawaii, Porto (sic) Rio, and Cuba in front of children holding books labelled with various US states. In the background are an American Indian holding a book upside down, a Chinese boy at the door and a black boy cleaning the window. Originally published on p. 8-9 of the January 25, 1899 issue of Puck magazine.

  • Role of Merchant Marine in Indian Maritime Security

    Role of Merchant Marine in Indian Maritime Security

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    Introduction:

    The Merchant Marine plays only a modest role in contributing towards securing India’s maritime neighbourhood or for that matter for any nation. On the other hand, its indirect contribution to security- largely through the economic dimension is significant.

    This paper seeks to explore the economic dimension of merchant ships and in doing so, endeavours to bring out the resultant contribution to maritime security.

    With my domain knowledge, I hope to cover global maritime, and its current scenario in India. I have spent 28 years at Sea of which 18 years in Command as Captain and an additional 25 years ashore in Senior Management positions. I have recently relocated back to India after 5 years in Sri Lanka and a year in Seychelles. So, I do consider it a privilege to share my experience.

    Global Maritime:

    Shipping is the life blood of global economy.  Without shipping, intercontinental trade, the bulk transport of raw materials, and the import/export of affordable food and manufactured goods would simply not be possible. The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of world trade. Seaborne trade continues to expand, bringing benefits for consumers across the world through competitive freight costs. Thanks to the growing efficiency of shipping as a mode of transport and increased economic liberalisation, the prospects for the industry’s further growth continue to be strong.

    There are over 58,000 merchant ships trading internationally, transporting every kind of cargo. The world fleet is registered in over 150 nations, and manned by over 2 million seafarers of virtually every nationality. Ships are technically sophisticated, high value assets (larger hi-tech vessels can cost over US $200 million to build), and the operation of merchant ships generates an estimated annual income of over US $1.2 trillion in freight rates.

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  • Challenges of the Indian Economy and Banking Under the Sway of Global Capital

    Challenges of the Indian Economy and Banking Under the Sway of Global Capital

    Introduction

    In a modern day capitalist society, finance (vitta) is of crucial importance. It can help the individuals but also marginalize them since finance is not only complex but becoming more so and even educated people barely understand it. So, most people follow the herd mentality and often that leads to mistakes.

    Any analysis of the world of finance in India requires one to understand the nature of the current Indian Economy and its changing philosophical moorings. The problem is compounded by the rapidly changing technology in the world which is hard to keep track of, even for the experts, much less for the common person. Before one has understood the implications of a technology a new one arrives. For instance, in India, the advent of plastic cards has been quickly overtaken by electronic transactions and now the cryptos are threatening banks and even Central Banks.

    Thus, the financial sector itself faces unprecedented challenges with new financial instruments appearing in rapid succession. Since their impact on the financial system is little understood, risk has increased and that is leading to growing instability. To take care of the risks in the system newer instruments have emerged and they add to the instability. For instance, the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was triggered by the sub-prime crisis, growth of shadow banking, Credit Default Swaps, etc.

    So, the issues facing the world of finance today need to be understood in both the global context and historically.

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  • On China and Economy, Dialogue Is the Need of the Hour

    On China and Economy, Dialogue Is the Need of the Hour

    The strength of democracy is that debate and dialogue provide society with a self-corrective mechanism.

    The news of Chinese transgression in Tawang on December 9 is disturbing. The opposition has repeatedly demanded a discussion in the parliament but the government has not agreed. The government’s stock reply is that the matter should not be politicised and that we should have full faith in our army and our brave soldiers.

    This is diversionary since no one is saying that our soldiers are at fault or are not fighting valiantly. The issue is about policy and India’s political stance vis-à-vis China because of which the brave soldiers are suffering. A full discussion in parliament will help clear the air in this regard.

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  • India’s Unorganised Sector Is Being Engulfed, Further Marginalised

    India’s Unorganised Sector Is Being Engulfed, Further Marginalised

    The organised sector must consider how much can the unorganised sector be run down without hurting its own interest.

    The corporate sector is doing well, as indicated by the stock market which reflects its health. But the corporates represent only a few thousand businesses out of the crores operating in the country. Ninety-nine percent of the businesses are in the unorganised sector and reports suggest that they are declining. The official GDP for Q1 of the current financial year 2022-23 was 3.3% above its pre-pandemic level. Yet, the stock markets are close to their historic high achieved in 2021. This disjuncture between the stock market and the economy reflects the surge in corporate profits in a stagnant economy – and there is a story behind it.

    The Reserve Bank of India data on around 2,700 non-government, non-financial companies released in August 2022 shows that the sales of these companies surged 41% and net profits increased by 24% over the last year. Even if these figures are deflated by the wholesale price index (WPI) which has been rising at above 10% during this period, the corporate sector surge far exceeds the growth of the economy. If one component of the economy is rising so rapidly, the other part, the non-corporate sector in industry, must be shrinking. The difficulty with the official data is that it does not independently capture the decline of the unorganised sector (it is proxied by the growing organised sector). If the true rate of growth could be obtained, the disjuncture between the official growth rate and the rise in the stock market would be even greater.

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  • Right to Work: Feasible and Indispensable for India to be a Truly Civilized and Democratic Nation

    Right to Work: Feasible and Indispensable for India to be a Truly Civilized and Democratic Nation

    Executive Summary of
    Report of People’s Commission on Employment and Unemployment
    Set up by Desh Bachao Abhiyan

    Introduction

    When society faces a problem and is unable to resolve it, it implies that something basic is wrong. One needs to look for its basic causes to solve the problem. The causes may lie in the system that has evolved over time and which conditions the dominant social and political thinking in society. The onus of finding the solution and rectifying the problem is on the rulers. Their failure to do so over time implies a lack of motivation/commitment to solve the problem.

    All this applies to the issue of employment generation and unemployment in India which has been growing over time and affects the vast majority of the citizens.

    The Basic Issue

    Gandhi said that India is the only country capable of giving a civilizational alternative. The time has come to take this seriously since unemployment has become a critical issue that needs to be urgently tackled. The issue is multi-dimensional since it is a result of multiple causes and has widespread implications. It impacts the growth of the economy, inequality, poverty, etc. It has a gender dimension and impacts the marginalized sections adversely reflecting a lack of social justice. It is entrenched among the youth. The more educated they are greater the unemployment they face. Consequently, it has political and social implications, like, social relations.

    The rapidly growing incomes of the top 1% in the income ladder indicate that the economy has the resources but they are mal-distributed. The rich at the top has created a system that enables them to capture most of the gains from development with little trickling down to the rest.

    This Report presents a framework that spells out the causes, consequences, and possible remedies. Further, it looks at the historical process underlying the evolution of policies so as to understand how they can be changed.

    If any form of distortion persists over a long period, as unemployment in India, its origins lie in society’s perceptions and priorities. In India, these can be traced to the adoption of state capitalism and persisting feudal tendencies of the elite policy makers who in their own self-interest adopted a trickle-down model of development.

    Further, Capitalism has globally taken the form of marketization which promotes `profit maximisation’. But is it then legitimate to keep workers unemployed? It implies loss of output and therefore reduces the size of the economy which leads to a lower level of profits. So, by the logic of individual rationality, the system should create productive employment for all.

    The market’s notion of `efficiency’ is status quoist since it seeks to perpetuate the historical injustice in society. `Consumer sovereignty’ implies that individuals should be left free to do whatever they wish. The collectivity should not intervene in their choices no matter how socially detrimental they may be. It promotes the notion that if I have the money I can do what I like. The ratio of incomes is 10,000 times and more between the big businessmen and the poor workers. The market sees nothing wrong in this; in fact, society has come to celebrate it.

    Marketization is determining society’s choices through its principles penetrating all aspects of society. One of these principles is the `dollar vote’. The policy makers accept it and prioritize the choices of the well-off over those of the marginalized. The well-off dictate the social judgments of policy makers. Consequently, not only equality is not on the agenda even equity is not.

    With marketization stripping off the social aspect of life, individuals become automatons. Their individual distress and situation in life are no one’s or society’s concern. Unemployment becomes just a switching off of a machine. No social concern need to be attached to it. In fact, capitalists welcome unemployment as an efficient’ device to discipline labour and neo-classical economics considers it as natural. Inflation further weakens large numbers of workers as they lose purchasing power.

    In essence, whether or not society should aim to give productive employment to all reflects its view of individuals. Society needs to choose what is more important – profits or the welfare of the marginalized majority. The Gandhian view, largely rejected by the Indian elite, was `last person first’ which defined what the priority should be.

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    The views represented herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Peninsula Foundation, its staff, or its trustees.

    The report’s executive summary is republished with the permission of the author.

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  • Rural Agriculture and the new wave of Migrant Workers to Rural Space

    Rural Agriculture and the new wave of Migrant Workers to Rural Space

    Abstract

    Home, belongingness, and identity bring comfort to human existence, but local communities are challenged and become highly volatile by the sudden influx of people from different regions in search of livelihood and survival. Some migrate in their quest to find new opportunities in education, employment, and better living conditions from their home state, but some are displaced due to loss of livelihood, low employment, and lack of safety. This article analyses internal migration toward Tamil Nadu. The migrant population in Tamil Nadu accounts for 18.85 lakh according to the 2011 census, whereas other state migrants account for only 6.2% (Radhakrishnan & Vasanth, 2019). Most migration in the past has been towards the cities for chances of better livelihood and stable jobs. However, migrant workers travelling towards rural areas have been increasingly found working as agricultural labourers. S. Irudaya Rajan, a professor at the Centre for Developmental studies in his work, points out the importance of migrants to this economy as there is a constant outflow of the young population, with reservation wages in this region being high (Radhakrishnan & Vasanth, 2019). A report by the Federation of Tamil Nadu Agricultural Association suggests that over 8,67,582 farmers have stopped agricultural practices, and the market has been taken over by private players who require agricultural labourers (Sreemathi, 2019). This demand can attract migrant workers to rural areas. This article examines the migration pattern in Tamil Nadu to understand the inflow and outflow population, the reasons behind the outflow of farmers from the system and the new wave of migrant workers to rural Tamil Nadu.    

    Introduction

    Millions of people move every year hoping for a better livelihood and future, but the reality may be bitter for some. Nine million people have been migrating annually between states as per the Railway’s data from 2011 to 2016. Around 30% of the Indian population represents the varied level of the migrant population (Migration, 2022). Various factors have contributed to migration. The pull factors which attract people towards the destination include better living conditions, better employment, quality education, absence of violence and high wage rates. The push factors, on the other hand, include the lack of welfare activity, discrimination towards a community, lack of employment and lower wage rates. In both instances, economic ambition occupies the centre space. Thus, it is crucial to form a developmental economy for the residing population and the migrating one. The pull factors usually replace the push factors when the socio-economic condition in the country facilitates good life. People have been moving towards cities, hoping to find better employment and livelihood in the globalised world, making cities the hub for development. In Tamil Nadu, the movement toward the city area was triggered by early industrialisation in the 1980s, when manufacturing capacity accounted for around 26% of its GDP, higher than the national average of 15% (Mahambare & Dhanaraj, 2021). The 1990s liberalisation policy created mobility and development by expanding the economic horizons to telecom, software and banking (Migration to Chennai, 2010). This socio-economic mobility has greatly impacted the state’s rural economy and continues to be one of the few contributors to migration from agriculture. In recent times, farmers are selling out their lands and changing their occupations or working as agricultural labourers. The agricultural sector requires a considerable labour population. This demand for labour forces along with the lockdown during the Covid pandemic has fuelled a new wave of migrant workers in rural areas in south India. However, it is essential to study the causes of the movement of the traditional population from the industry, which helps understand the patterns that need to be avoided.

    Migration out of Agriculture

    Agriculture has long been a community practice in Tamil societies, but the migration of farmers continues to challenge the status quo. A report by the Federation of Tamil Nadu Agricultural Association mentions that over 8,67,582 farmers have stopped agricultural practices (Sreemathi, 2019). Lower wage rates, discrimination, heavy workload, lack of welfare and crop failure are the main reasons for displacement. Since the agricultural sector is seasonal, the wages are decided by workdays, seasons, and piece/ quantity rate, which leads to an unsteady wage rate based on the season, with fewer or no jobs in some seasons. People, thus, prefer to work non-farm jobs for a steady income throughout the year. Some have been living as labourers for generations on the farm since only a handful of the population possess larger farmlands. A study by Sato Keiko (2011) traces this class difference, farmland size, and the employment status of migrants from a rural village in Madurai. He points out that the village’s upper-class children with larger farms migrated to the city and acquired white-collar jobs. The middle class and the marginal groups, on the other hand, usually landed in blue-collar jobs.  Interestingly, he notes that the aspiration to educate and climb the socio-economic ladder has recently been high among the latter (Keiko, 2011). This aspiration leads them to migrate to cities and take up factory jobs, which are comparatively better than being engaged as farm labourers. Educational aspiration attempts to shake the traditional class structure and disparity that exists with it. 

    Additionally, only 27.1% adolescent population and 24.18% of the youth population were involved as agricultural labourers in 2014 (Sivakumar, 2014). Another reason for the migration is crop failure induced by unpredictable heavy rainfall and drought. Farmers who cannot profit or make ends meet when the crop collapses, end up falling into debt.  

    More than 85% of people working in the state under MGNREGA are women, higher than the national average of 56% and 28% of the Dalit population (Ramakrishnan, 2017)

    The Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) Scheme has been argued to be one of the major reasons behind the declining numbers of farm labourers When the scheme started, it provided the rural population with a higher income of Rs. 100 compared to farm jobs which offered Rs. 40 a day (In Tamil Nadu labourers, 2010). MGNREGA acts as a precursor for the high wage rate in agriculture as it competes with the scheme to attract more people for work. In 2020, the wage rate for agriculture labourers had increased to Rs. 392, and the notified MGNREGA stood at Rs. 273, which was lower than the farm wage (Aditi, 2021). However, along with steady wages and less workload, MGNREGA has continued to be a source of economic empowerment for women. It enables pathways to formal financial institutions and personal saving habits – “I would be working like a bonded labourer again under any big landowning agriculturist, if there was no Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)” (Ramakrishnan, 2017). These interviews collected by Ramakrishnan, senior journalist for The Hindu, shed light on the women’s attitude and discontent toward farm jobs. More than 85% of people working in the state under MGNREGA are women, higher than the national average of 56% and 28% of the Dalit population (Ramakrishnan, 2017). These marginal groups are frequently abused and sexually harassed by employers and landowners. In this regard, MGNREGA has provided them with a space to work with dignity. However, some experts like Vijayanand, former Secretary of the Union Minister of Panchayat Raj, opposed the arguments favouring MGNREGA arguing that the scheme did not provide jobs throughout the year and phased out the jobs in accordance with the lean season (Radhakrishnan, 2017). 

    Involvement of Migrants in Agriculture

    Tamil Nadu is a growing economy which renders a stay to 18.85 lakhs migrants, of which 6.2 % are from other states. The origin states of these migrant workers are Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chattishgarh and states of Northeast India. Some tribal communities migrated from areas with rich mineral resources like the Santal areas of West Bengal, MP and a few other areas in Jharkhand and Chattisgarh because of the prevalent mining practice and dam building. Also, tribal people were displaced because of the settlement of non-tribals in the region and deforestation. In some areas, low human development indicators have led to their displacement. Apart from these push factors, Tamil Nadu has a lot to offer in terms of its higher wage rates, better living conditions and political, religious and social freedom (Sami, Crossin, Jayapathy, Martin, et al., 2016). Once they migrate to Tamil Nadu through contractors, migrants are channelled to Chennai, Coimbatore, Tiruvallur, Tiruppur, Kancheepuram and Chengalpattu to work in manufacturing factories and construction sites. These migrants fill the state’s requirement for 3D jobs, as Dr Irudaya Rajan from the Tiruvananthapuram Centre for Developmental Studies mentioned (Radhakrishnan & Vasanth, 2019). These jobs are mostly dirty, demeaning and dangerous. Since the wage expectation of the state youth is high, the desperation to take up these jobs is low and job positions are thus occupied by migrant workers (Vasanth & Radhakrishnan, 2019).

    The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data from 2018 to 2020 shows a sharp increase in employment in agriculture from 42.5 % in 2018 -19 to 45.6% in 2019-20 (CMIE, 2021)

    In the pre-Covid job market, population movement was constantly moving from rural villages to urban spaces in search of white and blue-collar jobs. However, Covid has shifted the employment market. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data from 2018 to 2020 shows a sharp increase in employment in agriculture from 42.5 % in 2018 -19 to 45.6% in 2019-20 (CMIE, 2021). Most people who changed jobs were formerly employed in construction and manufacturing. While the existing population migrates to cities in search of skilled labour, migrant workers find the farm jobs more appealing. Tamil Nadu provides an average salary of Rs. 392 per day for farm workers, which is higher than the national average of Rs. 348. Most states from which the migrants are displaced have far fewer wage rates; for instance, Jharkhand offered Rs. 258 in 2020 while the wage rate was Rs. 234 in Chhattisgarh (Directorate of Economics and Statistics, 2021). While their movement is unexpected, these migrant populations can contribute to the agricultural sector and rural development, but that cannot be done without good government policies. The GDP contribution of agriculture reduced from 55.3% in the 1950s to 21.8% in the 2000s (Gothoskar, 2021). Most government budgets have little concern for the agricultural economy. Thus, it is essential to implement policies for the existing agrarian population and the migrants. Also, there has been increasing distress caused by the growing movement of the migrants to farmland which continues to be heavily unorganised. Dr Irudaya Rajan, in his interviews, warns that this unexpected surplus labour availability in rural areas cannot accommodate everyone in the existing jobs, which may result in increased poverty and starvation (Nirupama, 2020).

    Furthermore, it backfires on the urban economy once industries open up completely and face a shortage of labour (Viswanathan, 2020). To know the current situation of migrant workers, state-level data collection is needed. Tamil Nadu collected the migrant database only once in 2015, following the fall of the Moulivakkam multistorey building. While Thangam Thennarasu, the Tamil Nadu Minister of Industries, mentioned collecting data on migrant workers in a press release, the agriculture sector was not mentioned (Kumar, 2021). Data collection is vital in formulating policies to accommodate the migrant workers in rural economies and avoid unexpected problems. 

    Measures to be taken

    Since the Agricultural sector offers seasonal employment, other sources of organised employment or schemes to assure livelihood during times of distress should be in place. While farming requires work like ploughing and harvesting, which is to be done all year-round, the revenue can be earned only in a particular season. If affected by climate calamities and crop failure, people are most likely to end up in debt. Hence, it is essential to employ migrants during the off-season and distress times in sustainable jobs. Most agricultural products are exported as raw materials or semi-processed to other countries, and therefore, the MSMEs in the rural areas can be focused on enhancing the exporting sector of agriculture.

    MOUS between states: The Tamil Nadu government has fewer memorandums of understanding (MOUs) on migrants, with focus mainly placed on Sri Lankan refugees. Thus, signing MOUs with the source state can improve the conditions of migrants and help governments to maintain a database of migrants (Sreelakshmi,2021). The databases can help in formulating policies.

    Welfare policies – Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), a central-run health insurance scheme for people working in the unorganised sector and for those below the poverty line, has to be implemented appropriately, and the records should be maintained. Quality schooling for children of migrants working in rural spaces should be provided. Some states have offered regional language subject notebooks and learning kits through MOUs. Tamil Nadu should recruit staff in the favoured language. Further, skill enhancement training for the migrants should be provided.

    Conclusion

    Agriculture and rural development go hand in hand since 70% of rural households depend upon agriculture for their livelihood. Still, there is an increased pattern of traditional farmers moving out of the business and choosing other industries or being employed as agricultural labourers. This shift, accompanied by the Covid lockdown, has triggered an increased flow of migrant population back to farms as agricultural labourers. Unlike industries, the agricultural sector is unorganised and seasonal, making it highly vulnerable. Thus, it becomes essential to build a safety net for the traditional population and the migrants. These migrants, without proper policies and data entries, can be stranded; lacking identity, rights and political representation. Further, this sudden labour surplus cannot be accommodated immediately, creating a labour shortage in urban areas.  It is, thus, important to record migrant workers who return, the sector they are involved in, their security nets and most importantly, their availability in rural agriculture.

    Reference

    Aditi R. (2021, May 16). MGNREGA workers in Tamil Nadu allege underpayment and wage disparity. The times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/mgnrega-workers-in-tamil-nadu-allege-underpayment-and-wage-disparity/articleshow/82673961.cms

    Dhanaraj Sowmya & Mahambare Vidya (2021, March 31). Tamil Nadu left Punjab, Bengal far behind. Here’s what it needs to do now. The Print. Retrieved from https://theprint.in/opinion/tamil-nadu-left-punjab-bengal-far-behind-heres-what-it-needs-to-do-now/631213/

    Directorate of Economics and Statistics. (2021). Agricultural wages India: 2019 – 20. Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers welfare. 

    Gothaskar Sujata. (2021, May 12). To Fully Understand the Migrant Worker Crisis, We Need a Larger Perspective. The Wire. Retrieved from https://thewire.in/rights/migrant-worker-crisis-larger-perspective-farm-land-industry

    In Tamil Nadu labourers choosing NREGA over farms. (2010, Nov 29). NDTV. Retrieved from https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-tamil-nadu-labourers-choosing-nrega-over-farms-440546

    Keiko Sato. (2011). Employment structure and Rural-Urban Migration in a Tamil Nadu Village: Focusing on difference by economic class. Southeast Asia Studies. Vol.49. Pg.22-51.

    Kumar Vijay. (2021, July 26). Tamil Nadu to create a databank of migrant workers. The Hindu. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/databank-of-migrant-workers-soon-says-tamil-nadu-industries-minister/article35530808.ece

    Migration to Chennai follows industrial growth, but quality. (2010, April 13). The Times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/migration-to-chennai-follows-industrial-growth-but-quality-of-life/articleshow/5798687.cms

    Radhakrishnan V & Vasanth B. A. (2019, September 08). Migrants in Tamil Nadu: case of much ado about nothing? The Hindu. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/migrants-in-tamil-nadu-case-of-much-ado-about-nothing/article29364682.ece

    Ramakrishnan T. (2017, February 05). Job scheme, a mixed bag for rural labourers. The Hindu. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/Job-scheme-a-mixed-bag-for-rural-labourers/article17197043.ece

    Sami Bernard. Crossin Sebastian, Jayapathy, Martin. P. O. (2016). A survey on Interstate migrants in Tamil Nadu. LISSTAR & Indian Social Institute. 

    Sivakumar B. (2014, November 02). Most of Tamil Nadu’s adolescents, youth live in rural areas, shows census. The times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/most-of-tamil-nadus-adolescents-youth-live-in-rural-areas-shows-census/articleshow/45008956.cms

    Sreelakshmi Anjana. (2021, November 07). Distress Migration: A case study KBK districts in Odisha. The Peninsula Foundation. Retrieved from https://admin.thepeninsula.org.in/2021/11/07/distress-migration-a-case-study-of-kbk-districts-in-odisha/

    Sreemathi M. (2021, November 23). Migrants now enter agri fields in Nellai. The New Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2021/nov/23/migrants-now-enter-agri-fields-in-nellai-2386930.html

    Viswanathan Nirupama. (2020, May 20). We have not factored in Tamil Nadu’s migrant workers in our realm of things: Expert. The new Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2020/may/20/we-have-not-factored-in-tamil-nadus-migrant-workers-in-our-realm-of-things-expert-2145578.html

    Vyas Mahesh. (2021, August 09). Migration from factories to farms. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Retrieved from https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20210809122441&msec=850

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  • At 75, A time to Celebrate and Introspect

    At 75, A time to Celebrate and Introspect

    As modern, democratic India turns 75, it is indeed a time for celebration and introspection

    Addressing the historic session of the Constituent Assembly on the night of 14-15 August 1947, at the cusp of India’s independence, Jawaharlal Nehru voiced the yearning of millions of Indians when, in his matchless eloquence, he declared: “Long years ago, we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge…At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom”.

    In what’s considered to be one of the finest speeches of the last century, Nehru also voiced the aspiration of Gandhiji, that their work would not be over till they wiped “every tear from every eye,” adding “this is no time for petty and destructive criticism, no time for ill-will or blaming others. We have to build the noble mansion of free India where all her children may dwell.”

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