The Peninsula Foundation

Category: Transformational Paradigms

Retrofit Winglets for Wind Turbines

Retrofit Winglets for Wind Turbines

Vijay Matheswaran1 and L Scott Miller2

Wichita State University, Wichita, KS 67260

Patrick J Moriarty3

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401

The benefits of using winglets on wind turbines has been well documented. However, adding winglets to wind turbine blades leads to significant increases in blade root bending moments, requiring expensive structural reinforcement with cost and weight drawbacks. A unique design philosophy for retrofitting winglets on existing wind turbines is presented. These retrofit winglets offer an increase in power produced without the need for structural reinforcement. Predicted performance and cost benefits are illustrated via a study using the NREL 5MW reference wind turbine. The addition of winglets resulted in a 2.45% increase in Coefficient of Power (Cp) and 1.69% increase in Annual Energy Production (AEP).

Nomenclature

Cp = coefficient of power

V¥ = freestream velocity

𝑟i = blade section radius

𝜃t = blade section twist

𝐼$ = Initial Cost per year

𝑀$ = Annual Operating Expense

Et = Annual Energy Output

I. Introduction

The idea of winglets on wind turbines is one that has been periodically explored in the past few decades. The earliest studies incorporating blade tip devices on wind turbines were done by Gyatt and Lissamann1. Drawing from advanced tip shapes that were being applied to fixed wing aircraft to reduce drag, the authors tested four tip designs on a 25kW Carter Wind Turbine in San Gorgonio Pass, California. Further studies were carried out in subsequent decades. Van Bussel2 developed a simple momentum theory for blade winglet configurations. Imamura et al.3 analyzed the effects on winglets on wind turbines using a free-wake vortex lattice method. Guanna and Johansen4 developed a free wake lifting line model to compute the effects of winglets, comparing it with CFD results obtained using EllipSys3D. Johansen and Sorenson5 did further studies on increasing power coefficient with the use of winglets, showing that adding winglets definitely changes the downwash distribution, leading to an increase in the power produced by a wind turbine.

While the benefit of adding winglets has been well documented, there are drawbacks to adopting the traditional method of doing so. The addition of large, heavy winglets to maximize aerodynamic benefit leads to significant increases in root bending moments. Imamura et al.6 analyzed the effects of winglets on wind turbine blades using a free-wake vortex lattice method. Their study showed that a winglet at an 80°cant angle and height of 10% of the rotor radius resulted in a 10% increase in the blade root flapwise bending moment. This situation may require blade structural reinforcement, making winglets an expensive and often infeasible proposition. In order to address this, a novel design philosophy has been developed, allowing the use of retrofit winglets that offer an increase in power produced, but without the need to structurally reinforce the blade. This paper outlines the design philosophy, tools

used and results from initial simulations.

II. Design Philosophy for Retrofit Winglets

The key differentiator between this study and prio winglet studies is the design philosophy: designing a lightweight winglet at minimum cost that, while providing an improvement in the turbine’s Coefficient of Power (Cp), does not require blade structural reinforcement. Such a winglet does not seek to maximize Cp, but rather minimize blade bending moments with an acceptable increase in Cp. This is accomplished by balancing the centrifugal force and aerodynamic normal force generated by the winglet. Balancing forces minimizes increases in blade root bending moment, negating the need for an exceptionally strong winglet and allowing it to be light, and requiring noreinforcement of the main blade. Savings in weight are strongly related to cost, so a lighter winglet implies a cheaper, more cost effective one. Accordingly, the best winglet is not one that offers the maximum increase in Cp, but rather offers an increase in Cp while ensuring forces are balanced within a threshold. Figure 1 presents a freebody diagram of the retrofit winglet. A qualitative plot highlighting the design philosophy and the optimal design space is presented in Figure 2. To be able to guage the effects of winglets developed using the mentioned design philosophy, it was decided to use the NREL 5MW wind turbine7 as a reference turbine, and implement a vortex lattice method and cost function to evaluate aerodynamic efficacy and feasibility. The NREL 5MW reference wind turbine is a conceptual three-bladed upwind turbine that was primarily designed to support concept studies. It is heavily based on the Repower 5MW wind turbine; however, in cases where detailed information is not available, data from publicly available conceptual studies is used.

1 PhD Candidate, Department of Aerospace Engineering, AIAA Student Member

2Professor and Chair, Department of Aerospace Engineering, AIAA Associate Fellow

3Team Lead, Wind Plant Aerodynamics, AIAA Member

Click here for access to the Paper

May 9, 2021
Analysing Denmark’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector: Lessons for India
Globally, Europe has the highest capacity of power generated from offshore wind energy. Amongst the European countries, Denmark, the UK and Germany have been pioneers and are currently leading as the largest power producers from offshore wind energy. Danish assistance has been in high demand to help countries shorten their implementation time for offshore wind turbine projects. In 2019, India entered into a bilateral agreement with Denmark to develop an offshore wind market and related technical capabilities. According to a document published by the Danish government, their authorities have specialised technical knowledge that can help Indian authorities establish framework conditions for the rollout of offshore wind power.

Denmark’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector

The Danish Government has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 70%, as compared to 1990 levels, by 2030 and having 100% of Danish energy supplied through renewable sources by 2050, apart from achieving net-zero emissions by the same time. The scarcity of proper onshore sites and the abundance of shallow waters with wind resources drove its move to offshore wind, in the early 1990s,. In Denmark, there is a strong symbiosis between energy and industrial policy because of many leading offshore wind energy companies having Danish roots such as DONG, Vestas, Bladt, Siemens Wind, etc. India must achieve such a symbiosis in its offshore wind policies so that the industry can be successful in the long term.

Denmark’s ambitious targets coupled with their evolving policies in terms of bureaucratic procedures, environmental safety, and finance, among others, have driven the growth of the offshore wind energy sector since the 90s. This analysis looks at each of these segments.

Consent Procedures: The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has been a single point of access to all offshore wind energy companies when it comes to issues related to permits. Meaning, the DEA grants all permits which include permits from other appropriate government authorities such as the Danish Nature Agency, Ministry of Defence, and the Danish Maritime Authority. This is the one-stop-shop and has been adopted not only in Denmark but in many other European countries. Such a method ensures rapid and un-bureaucratic application processing and ease of doing business. This also avoids a lot of confusion.

Grid Connectivity: The financing of the grid connection for offshore wind farms depends on how it is established:
- Enterprises can follow the Government’s action plan for offshore wind development wherein the DEA will invite bids to tender for pre-specified sites or
- Enterprises can follow the ‘open-door principle’ wherein independent applications can be made for any site and upon complete assessment by the DEA, it will invite bids to tender for the site, given that the results of the assessment are positive.
In the first case, the grid operator will finance the connection, including step-up transformers. Such socialisation of grid costs is an attractive feature for project developers in Denmark.

However, in the second case, the responsibility falls on the developer. We may also expect costs of any necessary grid reinforcement to be borne by the developer. The three private offshore wind farms established in Denmark, following the ‘open-door principle’ – Samsø, Rønland, and Middelgrunden – have had no notable problems. These projects are, however, within 3km of the coast, which would imply that the grid connection costs were not exorbitant.

Environmental Assessment: In Denmark, an extensive environmental assessment takes place before the construction of an offshore wind farm. The DEA provides companies or enterprises a license to conduct preliminary studies, including environmental (Environmental Impact Assessment) and technical (ground investigation) studies, either directly after a tender (first process) or following the receipt of the first satisfactory planning documentation (second process).

For instance, in the case of the Anholt farm, one of the largest offshore wind farms with a capacity of 400 MW, the project team performed an extensive environmental assessment that included the impact on marine animals in the area and their habitats, noise calculations, air emissions, and the potential risk to ship traffic. Using data from other wind farm projects like Denmark’s Nysted Wind Farm, and undergoing their analysis, the Anholt project team projected only minor, insignificant affects.

Financial Incentives: In Denmark, they support offshore wind farms through a feed-in tariff system, which is set through a competitive auction process. Power off-take in Denmark is largely managed through the DEA. There is no renewable purchase obligation in place in Denmark, but electrical power from renewable energy has priority access to the grid. In some cases, the owner may choose to sell the electrical power to utilities or other power suppliers through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). If the power price drops to zero or negative, there is an oversupply of electricity – then renewable projects do not receive any support. Hence this motivates generators to curtail output and help supply-side grid management.

De-risking the development process: The Danish Government undertakes geotechnical studies, wind resource assessment, and environmental surveys before a site being leased. The lease areas are then auctioned off to the lowest bidder. This hugely benefits developers as the site is effectively de-risked, leading to a lower tender price. If this were not the case, the developers would have to include risk provisions and contingency, owing to uncertainty regarding the ground conditions. Further, de-risking a site would increase willingness to plan and bid for the sites leased.

Simply put, the Danish offshore wind energy policies developed by the DEA and the Government have evolved over the years to tackle situations as they occur. This has led to sustained growth in the sector and has succeeded in powering close to 50% of the country’s electricity demand. Besides successfully developing its sector, it has been an outstanding example to many countries in Europe such as the UK and Germany. The UK has adopted the one-stop-shop model to ease procedural difficulties. Germany has adopted the open-door procedure of establishing offshore wind farms.

India’s Offshore Wind Energy Sector

The offshore wind energy sector in India is in its nascent stage. Its 2015 National Offshore Wind Energy Policy shows that the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) will act as the nodal Ministry for the development of Offshore Wind Energy in India that will monitor offshore wind energy development in the country. It will also work closely with other government entities for the use of maritime space within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The Ministry has set a short-term target of 5.0 GW of offshore wind installations by 2022 and a long-term target of 30 GW by 2030 which, according to government documents, is expected to give the confidence to project developers in the Indian market. Over 95% of commercially exploitable wind resources are concentrated in seven states – Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu. But the land resources required for onshore wind projects are gradually becoming a major constraint. This could very well cause an increase in the market-determined tariffs of onshore wind energy in the future. Offshore wind power, however, offers a viable alternative in such a scenario. The Indian government, like Denmark, has to make policies to the best of their effort that will bring confidence to developers and de-risk the development of the sector to further encourage developers.

Although India has a huge potential in the renewable energy sector, the developers’ issues remain unresolved. For instance, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have most of the high potential sites off their coasts to develop offshore wind energy. But a major concern for offshore wind developers would be the problem of grid integration. The two states already have a high degree of solar and wind renewables integrated into their power grid. By adding on power generated through offshore wind energy, they will face a significant hurdle with the evacuation and integration of this additional power. Without proper renewable energy storage systems, there is also the added burden to maintain an equilibrium between the supply and demand of power generated through the variable sources as otherwise, there will be a great deal of wastage and an unnecessary surge in the prices.

Adding on to the problems faced by developers, benefits such as accelerated depreciation were recently withdrawn and as a result, investments have slowed down. Thus, project developers not only want accelerated depreciation to be reintroduced, but they also want assurance from the government that such fiscal benefits will continue for the long-term. If these fiscal benefits are reintroduced, developers will feel more optimistic about their prospects in the sector. Further, it would also encourage small developers to invest more in the sector.

Another area that is causing considerable angst for the wind project developers in India is the delay in realising the payments due to them from the state electricity boards. These delays affect the cash flows, thereby threatening the viability of many of these projects. Such experiences will make offshore project developers cautious in venturing into making large investments into the sector.

In terms of policies that Indian policymakers can adopt from Denmark are the one-stop-shop and an open-door procedure of establishing offshore wind farms. Having the MNRE as a single point of access would make the bidding and tendering process more efficient. This is because a developer has to coordinate with various departments such as the MNRE, the ministry of defence, the ministry of external affairs, nature and wildlife, etc before they can start producing in an offshore wind farm. It would also benefit to have an open-door procedure, but only in the long term. Initially, though, the government should identify possible sites and work on de-risking the development process to encourage more participation in the bidding process.

Conclusion

In line with its Paris Agreement commitments, India is working to ensure that by 2030, 40% of its power generation capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources. Currently, renewable energy makes up 36% of India’s power capacity through mainly small and large hydro, onshore wind, and solar energy. Producing power through offshore wind energy will be a welcome addition to the existing sources.

During the RE-Invest 2020 conference, the MNRE Joint Secretary announced that the Indian government is looking into setting up structures for power purchase agreements and offshore wind auctions. Thus, to successfully implement its plans, it will require further offshore wind resource data and analysis to identify viable project sites and, revive industry demand for this market.

Feature Image Credit: www.renewablesnow.com

Image: Anholt Offshore Wind Farm
March 2, 2021
The Economics of Clean Energy: Transitioning to Renewables in a Post-COVID Era

“the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win” – Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General

Even without a global health pandemic, our world is still facing a crisis of staggering proportions. In the 21st century the threat of climate change has outweighed almost all the other threats put together. Such is the pressing nature of the issue that it has even prompted re-branding of nomenclature from ‘climate change’ to ‘climate crisis’ – because that is what it is, a crisis. But as the UN secretary general António Guterres points out, “the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win”.

In this light, it is high time a discourse on transition to clean energy systems takes centre stage. With climate change progressing at an alarming rate, the need for clean energy has only been compounded. At a time of great disruption for the world owing to an unprecedented health crisis with severe economic and social ramifications, a transition to renewables could be the way forward. As governments around the world lead COVID-19 recovery efforts, the verdict is clear that we cannot go back to our old systems – a transition to clean energy must be on the forefront of national agendas. While the road to recovery is long and might take years, it is also the perfect opportunity for governments to accelerate clean energy adoption by putting this transition at the heart of post-COVID-19 social and economic recovery plans.

While COVID-19 has certainly slowed down this transition by disrupting and delaying several renewable energy expansion and installation projects, the outlook on clean energy still looks very promising. In Q1 2020, global use of renewable energy in all sectors increased by about 1.5% relative to Q1 2019, while the overall share of renewables in global electricity generation jumped to nearly 28% from 26% in Q1 2019. While this does not reflect the impact of COVID-19 on capacity expansion, as the increase in use is largely due to expansion efforts in the preceding years, it is still a positive sign.

Solar PV has had the most remarkable fall during this period, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) falling almost 82% over the last decade. Closely following are CSP and On-shore Wind, both of which have fallen 47% and 38% respectively

Even without factoring in the current global scenario, the rationale for transition has never been more compelling. Over the past decade, the cost of renewables has fallen to record lows (as shown in Figure 1), making it more attractive than ever before to invest in clean energy. Solar PV has had the most remarkable fall during this period, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) falling almost 82% over the last decade. Closely following are CSP and On-shore Wind, both of which have fallen 47% and 38% respectively. Batteries, which have been appraised as one of the key enabling technologies in accelerating the shift to clean energy, have also recorded significantly lower costs in the past couple of years. Battery technologies such as Lithium-ion and Vanadium-flow have long been considered the missing link in ensuring continuity of supply for Wind and Solar generated power, which often depend on the vagaries of the weather. The LCOE for Lithium-Ion batteries has fallen by 35% since 2018, owing to advancements in technology. The only increases in cost have been recorded by Geothermal and Hydropower.

With the cost of renewables falling, fossil fuel options are looking more and more expensive. According to IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), by 2020 Solar PV and onshore wind will be less expensive than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative. In the past, one of the key reasons why fossil fuels such as oil and gas were considered attractive options was because they were highly subsidized and incentivized. The true cost of these non-renewable sources minus the subsidies may well be much higher. The conventional cost of fossil fuels also does not factor in the environmental costs associated with carbon emissions. The extraction and use of these resources are often accompanied by several negative externalities associated with environmental degradation, pollution and global warming. This failure to account for the emissions and their impact has been termed by many as one of the greatest market failures the world has seen.

Thus, falling costs of renewables coupled with the growing pressure on fossil fuels has presented the world with a unique opportunity to accelerate the adoption of clean energy. As governments pump more money into economies as part of COVID recovery efforts, the same level of investments can now yield greater returns owing to falling costs. Globally, investments in renewable capacity and technology have been on the rise and have shown remarkable growth, especially for Solar and Wind. Investments in Solar PV (Utility) in particular have shown astounding growth, increasing over 200% since 2010 to reach $69.4 billion in 2019. Total investments across renewables stands at $253.6 billion, having grown 21% in the last decade.

While renewable capacity and investments have been growing, so has the demand for electricity. This growth in demand has somewhat offset the impact of transition to renewables. While mainstream adoption of clean energy is still progressing in the right direction, policy makers are worried that the pace of transition is not fast enough to offset growing demands. Unless renewable technology can scale up quickly and bridge the demand-supply gap, this excess demand will inevitably have to be met by fossil fuels.

The IRENA estimates that investments in clean energy could boost global GDP by close to $98 trillion by 2050

Despite several roadblocks still existing for large-scale adoption of clean energy to be made feasible, governments and institutions are putting climate action at the forefront now more than ever before. Post COVID-19, as economic recovery consolidates, we cannot afford to put clean energy on the back burner. Across the world, clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, solar and wind energy are becoming increasingly mainstream. According to a UN report, global investment in renewables is set to triple in the next 10 years. If governments continue to sustain this momentum, the benefits are manifold. The IRENA estimates that investments in clean energy could boost global GDP by close to $98 trillion by 2050. Thus, the rationale is clear and more compelling than ever for a shift to clean energy. The robustness and resilience of economies to future global shocks will be determined by how quickly and effectively they transition to renewables and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

References

[1] The Climate Crisis – A Race We Can Win. (2020). United Nations.

https://www.un.org/en/un75/climate-crisis-race-we-can-win

[2] Renewables 2019 – Global Status Report. Ren 21. Retrieved from: https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gsr_2019_full_report_en.pdf

[3] Global Energy Review 2020. (2020, April). IEA.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/renewables

[4] Renewable Power Generation Costs Report 2019. (2020, June). IRENA. https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019

[5] Henze, V. (2019, March 26). Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas. Bloomberg NEF.

Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas | BloombergNEF (bnef.com)

[6] Sinha, S. (2020, September 23). How renewable energy can drive a post-COVID recovery. World Economic Forum.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/renewable-energy-drive-post-covid-recovery/

Image Credit: AZoCleantech.com

February 16, 2021
Genetic Engineering Key To Developing COVID-19 Vaccine

Scientists throughout the world are engaged in a herculean effort to develop a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and decimated global economic activity. Without such a vaccine, normal life as we knew it before the pandemic began is unlikely to return any time soon.

The key to such a vaccine is genetic engineering, which has already resulted in the development of several successful vaccines.

The key to such a vaccine is genetic engineering, which has already resulted in the development of several successful vaccines. The active ingredients for the HPV (Human Papillomavirus Virus) vaccine, for example, are proteins produced from genetically modified bacteria. The hepatitis B vaccine, Erevebo, a vaccine for Ebola, manufactured by Merck, and the rotavirus vaccine are other examples of GE vaccines. A genetically modified rabies vaccine has been created for dogs and cattle.With these successes in mind, experts anticipate that recent advancements in genetic engineering could substantially shorten the development timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine. It takes on average ten to fifteen years to develop a vaccine, and the most rapidly developed vaccine was a mumps immunization, which still required four years to develop from collecting viral samples to licensing a drug in 1967.

Time is clearly of the essence as there is the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter, which would have further negative implications for public health and the global economy. The sooner we have a vaccine, the better off we’ll be, though serious logistical challenges remain.

The Vaccine Race Begins

On January 10, 2020, Chinese scientists greatly aided the vaccine development effort by publishing the genome of the novel coronavirus, SARS-COV-2. The virus is widely believed to have originated in bats near the city of Wuhan, China. It then jumped to another species, which was consumed by humans at the wet markets of Wuhan or came into direct contact with humans in some other way.

After examining the genome, Dan Barouch, the Director of Virology and Vaccine research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, said, “I realized immediately that no one would be immune to it,” underscoring the importance of quickly developing an effective immunization.

More than 120 possible vaccines are in various stages of development throughout the world, most of which are gene based with the hope that an effective and safe vaccine can be produced by the end of 2020 or early in 2021. This would be an astonishing accomplishment. By comparison, the Ebola vaccine, which is also genetically engineered, took five years to develop.Ken Frazier, the Chief Executive of Merck, which is working on a vaccine for COVID-19, has tried to dampen down expectations for a quick breakthrough, saying the goal to develop a vaccine within the next 12-18 months is “very aggressive. It is not something I would put out there that I would want to hold Merck to …vaccines should be tested in very large clinical trials that take several months if not years to compete. You want to make sure that when you put a vaccine into millions if not billions of people, it is safe.”
Peter Bach, the Director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering, added, “To get a vaccine by 2021 would be like drawing multiple inside straights in a row.”

Genetic Engineering Is Our Best Bet

To create a genetically engineered vaccine, scientists are utilizing information from the genome of the COVID-19 virus to create blueprint antigens (a toxin or other foreign substance which provokes an immune response that produces antibodies), which consists of DNA or RNA molecules that contain genetic instructions. The DNA or RNA would be injected into human cells where upon it is hoped the cell will use those instructions to create an immune response. If this type of vaccine is developed, it could offer protection for many years as the COVID-19 virus does not appear to mutate as quickly as influenza, though this critical variable could change in the future.
RNA vaccines are considered to be better at stimulating the immune system to create antibodies. They also create a more potent immune response and therefore require a lower dosage. However, they are less stable than DNA vaccines, which can withstand higher temperatures; RNA vaccines, though, can be degraded by heat and thus need to be kept frozen or refrigerated.

The DNA or RNA would be injected into human cells where upon it is hoped the cell will use those instructions to create an immune response. If this type of vaccine is developed, it could offer protection for many years as the COVID-19 virus does not appear to mutate as quickly as influenza, though this critical variable could change in the future.

The Risks Of Moving Quickly

Vaccine development is traditionally a lengthy process because researchers have to confirm that the drug is reasonably safe and effective. After the basic functionality of a vaccine is confirmed in a lab culture, it is tested on animals to assess its safety and determine if it provokes an immune response. If the vaccine passes that test, it is then tested on a small group of people in a phase one trial to see if it is safe, then in a phase two trial on a larger group of people. And if it passes those hurdles, a larger scale phase three trial is designed, which would involve at least 10,000 people.

These trials are necessary because trying to develop a vaccine quickly can compromise its safety and efficacy. For example, the US government rushed a mass immunization program to prevent a swine These trials are necessary because trying to develop a vaccine quickly can compromise its safety and efficacy. For example, the US government rushed a mass immunization program to prevent a swine flu epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.

Many Challenges Remain

Historically, the odds of producing a safe and effective vaccine are small, with just six percent of vaccines under development ever making it to the market. There are many diseases and viruses for which there are no vaccines (for example HIV/AIDS, Zika, Epstein-Barr and the common cold, among many others), even though great efforts have been made to develop them. Therefore, despite the gigantic efforts of drug companies and governments to produce a COVID-19 vaccine in the shortest possible period, there is no guarantee they will be successful.
epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.Soumya Swaminathan, the chief scientist for the World Health Organization said that an “optimistic scenario” is one in which tens of millions of doses could be produced and initially distributed to health care workers. Mass immunizations could begin in 2022, but to inoculate the world and “defeat” COVID-19 could take four to five years. She added, however, that this outcome “depended upon whether the virus mutates, whether it becomes more or less virulent, more or less transmittable.”
epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.

The COVID-19 virus highlights just how vulnerable humankind is to the natural world, which periodically produces pandemics such as the Spanish flu, the Bubonic plague, Polio and Asian flu that have the ability to kill many millions of people.

Assuming the virus doesn’t mutate, there are many logistical challenges that could slow mass immunization once a vaccine is developed. There is no precedent for scaling up a vaccine to potentially several billion doses. To do so would require a great deal of investment in vaccine production facilities throughout the world. Manufacturers would also have to scale up the production of vials, syringes, band aids and refrigeration units for temperature-sensitive vaccines.
epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.Additionally, it is not known if the vaccine would require one or two doses to confer immunity, or if it would have to be re-administered every few years. We would also have to determine how a vaccine would be shared internationally. There would clearly be tremendous pressure for any country that developed a vaccine to use it domestically before sharing it with other nations. It’s also possible that the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine could siphon off dollars and manpower dedicated to developing treatments and vaccines for other deadly diseases.
epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.Among the most difficult public policy questions we’ll have to face, would the vaccine be made mandatory? The possibility has already triggered push back from vaccine skeptics who view such a policy as a threat to their “inalienable sovereignty” as free individuals.
epidemic in 1976 that may have caused an increase in the number of reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest and death. The pandemic never materialized, though widespread public concern about flu immunization did.The COVID-19 virus highlights just how vulnerable humankind is to the natural world, which periodically produces pandemics such as the Spanish flu, the Bubonic plague, Polio and Asian flu that have the ability to kill many millions of people. Despite the inevitable challenges and trade-offs we face, the new tools of genetic engineering offer us the best chance of controlling, and possibly eliminating, the outbreak of future pandemics.
This article is published earlier on 23 June 2020 in Genetic Literacy Project.
This article, with images, is reproduced under ‘Fair Use of Articles & Images’ policy of GLP – https://geneticliteracyproject.org

July 22, 2020
Blue Economy: A Prospective Strategy For Sustainable Economy

Oceans, seas and coastal areas are the world’s largest ecosystems. They play a vital role in the food security and livelihood of billions of people all around the globe and contribute to the economic prosperity of many countries. Marine environments are able to provide jobs as well as nutrition, but increased human and economic interventions due to uncoordinated and not poorly researched development policies can pressurize and threaten the environment in the long-term. The United Nations Conference on sustainable development held in Rio de Janeiro in 2012 coined the concept of Blue Economy, defining the concept as a distinction between socio-economic development and environmental damages, which is the traditional view of global status quo. The concept is aligned with main stream economic activities in the marine and coastal ecosystems while incorporating the need to integrate the conservation and sustainable management of these ecosystems. These include the lowering of greenhouse gases emissions during consumption. A sustainable blue economy is basically a marine/ocean-based economy that contributes to food security, eradication of poverty, employment and income while providing socio-economic benefits for present and future generations. It should encompass the restoration, protection and sustenance of diverse, productive and intrinsic values of the marine and coastal ecosystem. This model should be based primarily on cleaner technologies, renewable energy resources and circular economy for securing economic and social stability by considering the capacity of the planet. Fisheries, shipping and ports, marine-based tourism, seabed mining and marine renewable energy are the main sectors in a blue economy framework.
A sustainable blue economy is basically a marine/ocean-based economy that contributes to food security, eradication of poverty, employment and income while providing socio-economic benefits for present and future generations.
Coastal economy includes activities related to employment, output and wages in the coastal ecosystem. Marine economy is the cluster of industries which includes the sectors that focuses on a common market for the final products, using similar technology or labour or similar natural resources. Marine economy can be considered as the subset of coastal economy. The concept of blue economy has multiple interpretations as it covers a variety of activities, locations and sectors.

Key Economic Benefits

The key economic issues addressed by the ‘blue economy’ concept are:
Food Security and Protein Demand: The fisheries sector encompassing aquaculture and plants is a source of considerable amount of proteins, calories and fats which promote food security in a country. Food security can be fully ensured only if the access to food is enhanced by lowering the barriers of trade, reducing food wastage, increasing the availability of nutritious food and providing efficient food distribution system in countries that suffer from deficit. For ensuring a healthy life, a balanced diet of proteins and fats should be supplied. Food basket should consist of a minimum amount of protein intake, and fish is an important source of animal protein. It benefits countries even if they have a lower daily average consumption.Rising Coastal Tourism: A major sector of blue economy is coastal tourism with immense potential for employment and growth in the economy. Developing a focused policy addressing the potential and constraints of the tourism industry can yield concrete results. Scuba diving, bird watching, sea angling, boating, and other segments like hotels, restaurants, water sports have potential for huge investments and can contribute to a robust blue economy in the country.Seaborne Trade: Sea is considered as a cost-effective carbon friendly mode of transportation used widely around the world. 90 % of global trade is done through sea routes. In the blue economy framework, priorities and policies should be towards promoting trade especially through sea routes by making it more systematic and futuristic.Alternative Sources for Energy: If large renewable energy remains untapped in a country, blue economy can be a major source of clean energy. The demand for clean and affordable energy is increasing across the world. Blue economy can be a great source of clean and affordable energy. The Oceans are huge resources for renewable energy, like wave energy, tidal energy, solar energy etc. Exploitation of the oceans can reduce the pressure on finite traditional energy resources.

India’s Blue Economy Potential

Blue economy in India can be considered as the total sum of all economic activities that are based and sourced from marine and coastal resources. Deep sea mining, Offshore oil, fisheries contribute majorly towards the country’s blue economy. India has a coastline of about 8118kms and exclusive economic zones that cover almost 2 million sq kms including a continental shelf of 530000 kms. Almost 1.5 million kms of this continental shelf has been explored in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Majority of India’s population are based in coastal metro cities like Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata. More than a million people are employed in full time coastal fishing activities while more than 1.3 million people are employed in post-harvest fisheries and allied activities. India contributes to more than 10 % of world’s fish varieties. The country ranks second in worldwide fish production with a growth rate of 7 % annually and ranks second in aquaculture activities as well. The Malabar coast, Konkan belt and other coastal areas have shown considerable increase in influx of tourists over the years. Polymetallic nodules and sulphides are two of the major mineral resources that are commercially available in India. India is also an offshore gas giant and the country is trying to substitute terrestrial sources of energy with offshore reserves and renewable sources in the future. The Sagarmala project is considered as a pioneering initiative by the government to steer the country into the path of blue economy. The project was in initiated in 2015, costing around 8700 billion rupees and is proposed to be implemented over 20 years.The Sagarmala project is considered as a pioneering initiative by the government to steer the country into the path of blue economy.To create a sustainable blue economy, significant investments in research and development need to be carried out in accordance with planning and execution of a detailed region-specific blue economy model. Goals for different economic, social and ecological segments as well as respective policies should be integrated in the framework. Governments, social and private organizations and communities should collaborate and contribute to the framework by assigning achievable goals. These goals should be assessed and reported with all the members in the framework so that performance is consistently monitored. Economic instruments like taxes, subsidies, tariff and quotas can be used to internalize the benefits which are both economic and environmental. International, laws, treaties and agreements can help to implement a global blue economy system and network to ease trade and flow of labour. By linking terrestrial economy with marine economy, a sustainable green economy on land can also be developed. Each country should develop its own blue economy framework by recognizing its potential to contribute to and strengthen a sustainable and eco-friendly global economy.

References

Asher, M., 2018. India’s Blue Economy Initiatives: Establishing New Growth Nodes and Helping to Address Regional Imbalances.
Benzaken, D., 2017. Blue Economy in The Indian Ocean Region: Status And Opportunities. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Economist Intelligence Unit, 2015. The Blue Economy: Growth, Opportunity And A Sustainable Ocean Economy. Events World Ocean Summit. Economist Intelligence Unit.
Llewellyn, L., English, S. and Barnwell, S., 2016. A roadmap to a sustainable Indian Ocean blue economy. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, 12(1), pp.52-66.
Mohanty, S., Dash, P., Gupta, A. and Gaur, P., 2015. Prospects Of Blue Economy In The Indian Ocean. Research and Information System for Developing Countries.
Roy, A. (2019, January 11). Blue Economy in the Indian Ocean: Governance Perspectives for sustainable development in the region. Retrieved from https://www.orfonline.org/research/blue-economy-in-the-indian-ocean-governance-perspectives-for-sustainable-development-in-the-region-47449Image Credit: Adobe Stock

July 21, 2020
Blockchain Technology for Indian Defence Sector : Acquisition Process
KEY POINTS
1. Block chain technology brings in transparency, immutability and accountability which can transform the acquisition process into a very scientific, transparent and efficient system.
2. The benefits derived from implementing blockchain technology would include elimination of subjectivity, bring in accountability, completely eliminate the role of undue influence and middlemen, and will create a level playing field for all players .
3. Smart contracts using blockchain technology can ensure efficient compliance and enabling greater auditability and real-time identification of responsibility.
Introduction

Blockchain technology has become a popular term today invariably because of the benefits it provides in a P2P (peer-to-peer) network like data immutability, irreversibility, accountability and transparency. It was first used by Satoshi Nakamoto, (a pseudonym of a person or a group of people), founder of bitcoins to prevent backdating and data tampering. Blockchain is an incorruptible, decentralized, digital ledger of transactions that can be programmed to record not only exchange of information. Critically, for information to be exchanged between any two nodes within in a blockchain system, all nodes (or most nodes, depending on the structure) must agree that the exchange of information is legitimate. They do this through a variety of methods; either acting as a recognized trusted party or by solving complex cryptographic problems. Once the exchange is accepted, that exchange is written into a shared copy of a digital ledger that contacts all records of transactions that is effectively unchangeable. The benefits blockchain provides has caught the eyes of a lot of people in the world and are looking forward to implementing this technology in almost all fields like healthcare, automobile, defence, banking, agriculture and so on. Countries like China, Russia, America and South Korea are highly interested in implementing this technology in defence and other sectors. One of the key reasons being this technology optimises business processes effectively wherever it is implemented. This paper focuses on the application of blockchain technology in the Indian defence acquisition process focusing on its advantages in its implementation.

Analysis

Blockchain technology is a trust-less architecture. ‘Through crypto-economics, users don’t need to trust in any individual or organisation but rather in the theory that humans will behave rationally when correctly incentivised’. Blockchain in defence acquisition process would be a phenomenal game changer as it would lead to faster and quality decision-making because all the parties in the acquisition process are thoroughly informed and committed. Blockchain offers a more secure record of supply chain management and enables greater auditability and real-time identification of responsibility. Since blockchain acts as an important tool to take major decisions, it pushes all the nodes (participants like Service Headquarters, DRDO-Defence Research and Development Organisation, HQ IDS, Acquisition Wing of MOD, Defence Finance, and so on) in the network to feed high quality and accurate information in the network. It establishes clarity in the process ensuring clarification of responsibilities to all the nodes in the network.

The inherent security that stems from the nature of immutability and peer-to-peer characteristics of the blockchain lends itself to some critical applications within defence. Successful exploitation of blockchain is dependent on stringent data governance and quality assurance. Once the data is stored on a blockchain it is immutable, and hence, it forces participants to become quality assured with their data/information prior to storage. Quite naturally, it will bring in a culture of professional diligence, accuracy, and integrity. Blockchain works as an immutable record of transactions that do not require to rely on an external authority to validate the authenticity and integrity of the data/information.

Smart Contracts: If blockchain technology is taken up in defence acquisition process, smart contracts become an essential part of it. Smart contracts are a set of computer programs on the blockchain that can automatically execute activities when certain conditions are met. They can be viewed as a normal contract with terms and conditions that is converted to a digital script and stored on the blockchain. Since blockchain works on a distributed decision making model and not a central party that is powered to make all the decisions, the process might get complicated at times. To ease this, smart contracts can automate parts of the process that can overcome this complexity. For example, smart contracts can track the transfer of equipment from the vendor to buyer. Once the buyer receives the equipment as per the conditions given in the smart contract, it will automatically expedite the funds to seal the transaction. Besides, smart contracts can eliminate the problems of delayed compliance or non-compliance to contractual issues and vendors’ propensity to contest penalties, a frequent problem in Indian defence contracts. Blockchain based smart contracts are legally fool-proof and hence, compliance is the only way out.,

Since defence acquisition process and its inner workings function on a parallel basis to save time, the process could be more optimised if blockchain is effected fully. The whole process can come under blockchain right from generating an RFI, (where it deals with acquiring information about vendor capabilities and their product features for making better buying decisions) till post-contract management. It is also important to recognise the need to invest in creating significant data-bases that store and process volumes of confidential, operational, and industrial information.

This information can enable creation of verified and immutable data-base on the nation’s production capacity, indigenous technological status to ultimately enabling the decision on imports vs indigenous development, governed by operational requirements of time and relevance. It will also enable the users (military) to have a better mapping of Indian technological capabilities, resulting in more sound formulation of SQRs. Essentially the RFI process should collate:
1. Production capabilities inside the country.
2. Technological expertise available within the country for design and development within the required time frame.
3. Identifying the solution of acquiring technologies through JV route.
4. Establishing products and technologies available outside the country in the context of our operational requirements.
5. Production capabilities outside the country.
6. Armed forces modernisation requirements for enhancing the war fighting capability.
All of this can be made a holistic process and come under the purview of blockchain technology, which will optimise the whole procedure bringing in accountability, transparency and data immutability that has been the dire need for a long time.

The whole acquisition process involves multiple departments and stakeholders that interact through multiple meetings, discussions, brainstorming, and final decisions arrived at. Currently all these are controlled through bureaucratic procedures and centralised control . This classical procedure has given room for any number of accusations, scams, and delayed decisions. Blockchain technology overcomes all of these problems as it is based on innovative automation using AI, complete decentralisation, and the very fact that its structure is based on trust-less architecture. Hence, any decision that is committed to is recorded for posterity, and is immutable, transparent, and irrevocable. More importantly, there will no cases of missing files, no cases of mistaken attributability, and the question of illegal modification is simply impossible. While implementation will have technical challenges, blockchain technology will make the system unquestionably transparent, accountable, and of high integrity.

Transparency is the biggest strength of the blockchain technology, and any attempt at post event modification or tampering with records, is impossible. This tamper-proof benefit offered by blockchain ensures integrity in the acquisition process resulting in trust amongst the nodes in the network.

Important details in the selection process can be scrutinised even more effectively, for example:
1. Company’s financial status
2. Product features and specifications
3. Annual report
4. Past contract dealings and so on
All of this can be witnessed by all the nodes in the network and a sound and swift decision can be made.

Private Blockchain Network: While the general or public systems can use the public blockchain, the defence sector will necessarily be using the private blockchain network. A private blockchain is a permissioned blockchain. Permissioned networks place restrictions on who is allowed to participate in the network and in what transactions. It works with revealing the identity, role and organisation of the node before adding them to the concerned network, so one can determine whether the information has to be sent to them or not. This makes the nodes accountable to their actions in the process and any signs of actions by them, which can be detrimental, are easily exposed and corrective actions can be initiated. Where parties are culpable, penal actions can be made swift and effective. This type of blockchain is present in private enterprises for swift and sound decision making and meeting compliance requirements. Private and closed blockchain can be implemented within the procurement committee, who are in charge of making decisions regarding supply chain management and acquisition of products and spares across all ranges.

Conclusion

Blockchain will be a total game changer if implemented in our defence acquisition system. By using blockchain technology teams building decentralised projects can take advantage of its most valuable strength – the ability to reach a shared truth that everyone agrees on without intermediaries or a centralised authority. The chain works as an immutable digital ledger. It is not possible to modify any block without changing the entire chain, this makes it highly valuable in what is often, a highly contested and complex defence domain.

It is also highly beneficial for defence industries for their own functioning, transparency and efficiency. Recognizing the benefits offered by it, countries like the US, China and South Korea have already initiated the process of implementing blockchain in their respective defence industries. Issues like financial mismanagement, mysterious and anonymous order approvals, inability to track orders in supply chain and so on can easily be eliminated.

Blockchain technology is seriously being looked at or being implemented by many countries in areas of defence and security, blockchain technology in defence, blockchain for military defence, blockchain for aerospace and defence etc.

The immutability of blockchains allows all participants involved in the network to be confident in the fact that the data written to them hasn’t been tampered with or changed in anyway and that it will be available and accessible far into the future. India’s entrenched bureaucratic structure and its political culture tends to favour archaic and over-centralised systems for vested interests. Given the nature of India’s challenges in areas of defence modernisation, failure of its control over critical technologies, inefficiencies in its defence industries (both private and public), and a high import-dependency for defence equipment, it is imperative to start with innovative technologies like the blockchain to reform its defence architectures, acquisition system in particular. Political will is necessary to initiate this transformation. With the current Government mandate, modernisation in Indian defence being one of the main objectives, initiating it from the acquisition process would be the way to go about it.

S Swaminathan is a research analyst with TPF. He holds a masters in Defence and Strategic Studies.

Image Credit:Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash
November 9, 2019
Greenhouse Gases and Dietary Changes

Vijay Sakhuja July 22, 2019/Commentary

The 21^stcentury has been rightly labelled the ‘Climate Century’ and there is visible urgency to contain global temperature rise to 2˚C or below. Among the many initiatives currently underway to achieve that, deep cuts in global emissions in greenhouse gases (GHG) have been suggested.

One of the major contributors of GHG is the livestock sector; in particular, beef and cattle milk production result in anthropogenic GHG and represent 65 percent of the sector’s emissions i.e. 41 and 20 per cent respectively totalling about 4.6 giga tonnes carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Meanwhile, pork, poultry and eggs contribute less than ten percent each. Besides, there are other closely associated producers of GHG in this sector such as cattle feed production and processing, enteric fermentation from ruminants, manure storage and processing, and the balance is attributable to the processing and sector supply chains.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, nearly half of the global agriculture production is consumed by live stock and just 37 per cent is for humans. Another study by the American Oil Chemists’ Society (AOCS) provides some very alarming outcomes and notes that it takes about 7 kilogram of grain in dry weight to produce 1 kilogram of live weight for bovine, around 4 kilograms for 1 kilogram of live weight for pigs, and for poultry it is just over 2 kilograms. Furthermore, the United States Department of Agriculture notes that agriculture takes up 80 to 90 per cent U.S. water consumption, and the Environmental Working Group observes that one pound of eggs require 477 gallons of water and almost 900 gallons for one pound of cheese. If that be so, it is fair to argue that there is otherwise surplus plant-based food available for humans.

Livestock as a source of food is expected to grow in the coming years. This is driven by the projected increase in global population from 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Consequently, any strong growth in the livestock sector to support the protein requirements of the growing population would result in higher GHG emissions. This necessitates urgent interventions to reduce emissions and can be achieved through sizeable reductions in the production and consumption of beef and cattle milk and balancing it with higher production of pork and poultry. However, that may not be sufficient.

In recent times interesting and promising initiatives by both the public and private sectors to promote agro-vegetable based diet among the people has been noticed. For instance, in the US, the sale of dairy and related products witnessed eight per cent drop from $14.7 billion in 2017 to $13.6 billion in 2018. One of the reasons for this drop has been the consumer shift toward plant-based alternatives for milk from oats, cashew, almond and soy. The US market trends suggest that the plant based dairy alternatives are currently valued at $17.3 billion and could double by 2023. The current meat value chain is about $1,900 billion and the livestock economy is a promising domain. Nearly 1 billion people are involved in the rearing, processing, distribution and sale of livestock, with half of those reliant on livestock for their livelihood. Significantly, livestock sector constitutes only 40 per cent of the agriculture as a whole that makes up approximately 3 per cent of global GDP.

While vegetarianism has been in vogue for a long time, it is veganism which is fast gaining popularity particularly among the Western countries such as the U.S., Canada, the UK and some countries in Europe. The vegan diet is being prompted on at least three counts; first is the issue of human health and a number of scientific studies have confirmed the benefits of plant-based diet that reduces the risk of chronic illnesses and diseases; second is the issue of sustainability and the international community has come to realize the critical need to reduce GHG emissions; and third is the growing understanding among the humans of the sustainability of veganism. In fact the vegan food industry is investing in vegan fashion, vegan leather to replace animal hide footwear and numerous other such products are making debut in the international market and gaining popularity among people at large.

This has led to a war between meat industry and vegan lobbyists who are promising options such as vegan meats, cheeses, milks, and other products. For instance, global plant milk market is expected to grow from over $8 billion in 2016 to $21 billion by 2024 and would be led by soy and coconut milk.

Finally, consumers are increasingly concerned about the impacts that animal-based foods have on land and water use, human health and above all on the environment, particularly in the context of GHG.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Trustee, The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai.

Photo by Helena Lopes from Pexels

July 22, 2019